30.04.2026 19:00
Campo de Futbol de Vallecas
Referee: D. Rumsas
Rayo Vallecano
Match Timeline
Strasbourg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Dani Cárdenas
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
11'
Samir El Mourabet
Strasbourg
🟨
38'
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
45+6'
Emmanuel Emegha
Strasbourg
⚽
54'
Alemao · Assist: I. Palazon
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
64'
Alemao ↔ P. Diaz
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
67'
M. Godo ↔ S. Amo-Ameyaw
Strasbourg
🟨
74'
Ilias Akhomach
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
74'
Ben Chilwell
Strasbourg
🟨
76'
Florian Lejeune
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
78'
Diego Moreira
Strasbourg
🔄
84'
E. Emegha ↔ S. Nanasi
Strasbourg
🔄
88'
I. Palazon ↔ S. Camello
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
89'
J. de Frutos ↔ Pacha
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
90+7'
Maxi Oyedele
Strasbourg
🔄
90+4'
U. Lopez ↔ G. Gumbau
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
90+5'
S. El Mourabet ↔ M. Oyedele
Strasbourg

Rayo Vallecano vs Strasbourg Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Rayo Vallecano Win 41.5%
Draw 13.4%
Strasbourg Win 45.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rayo Vallecano1.31
Strasbourg1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano
WWDLW
69 GF / 58 GA
Strasbourg Strasbourg
WLDWL
83 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.77
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
23
BTTS Yes
29
25
Over 2.5
30
4.71
Shots on Goal
5.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 49 matches
Strasbourg Strasbourg 47 matches
Rayo Vallecano Statistic Strasbourg
20 Wins 25
13 Draws 10
16 Losses 12
69 Goals For 83
58 Goals Against 55
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.77
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
23 BTTS Yes 29
36 Over 1.5 37
25 Over 2.5 30
13 Over 3.5 16
15 Clean Sheets 13
14 Failed To Score 9
4.71 Shots On Goal 5.21
14.27 Total Shots 12.53
6.2 Corners 4.34
53.8% Ball Possession 55.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Strasbourg. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Strasbourg look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Rayo Vallecano Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Rayo Vallecano arrive from a league campaign that has them 5 with 13 points after 6 matches. The return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 13:7 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by A. Garcia (6 goals), I. Palazon (3 goals), Alemão (2 goals), with creative support from A. Garcia (4 assists), I. Palazon (2 assists), P. Diaz (2 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Strasbourg Analysis

Strasbourg come into this tie placed 1 in their league with 16 points from 6 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats with goals at 11:5 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking weight falls on E. Emegha (4 goals), M. Godo (4 goals), J. Enciso (3 goals), with creative support from M. Godo (4 assists), J. Enciso (4 assists), S. Nanasi (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 2 times, Strasbourg won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:0 from Rayo Vallecano's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.6%)
Predicted formations: Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1 / Strasbourg 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Rayo Vallecano wins 2, draws 0, Strasbourg wins 0

Standings

UEFA Conference League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 11:5 6 16
W W W W D
2 6 4 2 0 9:2 7 14
W W W D D
3 6 4 1 1 14:7 7 13
W W W D W
4 6 4 1 1 10:3 7 13
W W W D L
5 6 4 1 1 13:7 6 13
W W L W D
6 6 4 1 1 10:5 5 13
D W W W L
7 6 4 1 1 7:3 4 13
W D L W W
8 6 3 3 0 7:1 6 12
W D D D W
9 6 3 2 1 6:3 3 11
W D L D W
10 6 3 1 2 11:6 5 10
D W L W L
11 6 3 1 2 12:8 4 10
W D W L L
12 6 3 1 2 10:6 4 10
L L D W W
13 6 3 1 2 8:7 1 10
D L L W W
14 6 3 1 2 7:7 0 10
D W W L W
15 6 3 0 3 8:5 3 9
L W L L W
16 6 2 3 1 5:2 3 9
D W D D W
17 6 2 3 1 5:4 1 9
D L W D D
18 6 2 2 2 5:4 1 8
L W W D D
19 6 2 2 2 6:7 -1 8
L W D L D
20 6 2 2 2 4:8 -4 8
L L W W D
21 6 1 4 1 6:5 1 7
D D L W D
22 6 2 1 3 4:5 -1 7
L W L D W
23 6 2 1 3 8:10 -2 7
D L W L L
24 6 2 1 3 7:9 -2 7
L L W W D
25 6 2 1 3 6:8 -2 7
L L W W D
26 6 2 1 3 7:15 -8 7
L W L D W
27 6 2 0 4 9:9 0 6
W L L W L
28 6 2 0 4 8:8 0 6
W L L L W
29 6 2 0 4 5:9 -4 6
W L W L L
30 6 1 2 3 6:11 -5 5
L W D L D
31 6 1 1 4 7:13 -6 4
W L L D L
32 6 0 3 3 5:8 -3 3
L D L L D
33 6 1 0 5 4:11 -7 3
L L W L L
34 6 0 2 4 0:7 -7 2
D L L L L
35 6 0 2 4 3:14 -11 2
L L D D L
36 6 0 1 5 3:14 -11 1
D L L L L
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)