URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Osvaldo Roberto
Referee: Esteban Ostojich, Uruguay
Racing Montevideo
Match Timeline
Defensor Sporting
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
F. Suarez ↔ S. Da Silva
Racing Montevideo
🔄
67'
T. Habib ↔ N. Sosa
Racing Montevideo
🔄
67'
N. Wunsch ↔ Juan Jorge
Defensor Sporting
🔄
76'
A. Machado ↔ F. Castro
Defensor Sporting
🔄
85'
A. Vazquez ↔ R. Dudok
Racing Montevideo
🔄
86'
E. Da Silva ↔ E. De Los Santos
Racing Montevideo
🔄
88'
G. Barrios ↔ E. Cuello
Defensor Sporting
🟨
90+2'
Mauricio Amaro
Defensor Sporting

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.8%
Odds 2.06
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 55.8%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds 1.55
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.8%
2.06
BTTS BTTS No
55.8%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
1.55
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.28
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00
Correct Score 2-0
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Racing Montevideo Win 81.8%
Draw 0%
Defensor Sporting Win 18.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Racing Montevideo1.2
Defensor Sporting0.82
Recent Form (Last 5)
Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo
WWDLW
24 GF / 14 GA
Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting
WLDWL
14 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
0.82
0.82
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
9
BTTS Yes
8
6
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo 17 matches
Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 17 matches
Racing Montevideo Statistic Defensor Sporting
10 Wins 5
5 Draws 6
2 Losses 6
24 Goals For 14
14 Goals Against 15
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
0.82 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
9 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 0
7 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Defensor Sporting. Racing Montevideo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 31 points compared to Defensor Sporting in 8 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Racing Montevideo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Defensor Sporting in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Defensor Sporting having the stronger overall control.

Racing Montevideo Analysis

Racing Montevideo come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 31 points from 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, while the 23:14 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Habib (4 goals), F. Alvarez (2 goals), G. Cotugno (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Defensor Sporting Analysis

Defensor Sporting are currently 8 in the standings with 21 points from 15 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 13:11 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by B. Montenegro (6 goals), A. Machado (2 goals), F. Castro (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Racing Montevideo won 2 times, Defensor Sporting won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:19 from Racing Montevideo's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Racing Montevideo 4-4-2 / Defensor Sporting 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Racing Montevideo wins 2, draws 3, Defensor Sporting wins 10

Lineups

Racing Montevideo
Formation
Defensor Sporting
F. Varese
F. Varese
G. Cotugno
G. Cotugno
Brazionis
Brazionis
F. Alvarez
F. Alvarez
M. Ferreira
M. Ferreira
F. Suarez
F. Suarez
F. Cairus
F. Cairus
A. Alvarez Wallace
A. Alvarez Wallace
A. Vazquez
A. Vazquez
T. Habib
T. Habib
E. Da Silva
E. Da Silva
K. Dawson
K. Dawson
L. Agazzi
L. Agazzi
F. Sorondo
F. Sorondo
G. De los Santos
G. De los Santos
A. Frugone
A. Frugone
M. Amaro
M. Amaro
G. Barrios
G. Barrios
L. de los Santos
L. de los Santos
N. Wunsch
N. Wunsch
A. Machado
A. Machado
B. Montenegro
B. Montenegro
Racing Montevideo 4-4-2
Starting XI
12
F. Varese
G
4
G. Cotugno
D
3
Brazionis
D
13
F. Alvarez
D
17
M. Ferreira
D
11
F. Suarez
↓ 46'
F
8
F. Cairus
M
21
A. Alvarez Wallace
M
39
A. Vazquez
↓ 85'
M
18
T. Habib
↓ 67'
F
10
E. Da Silva
↓ 86'
M
Substitutes
1
F. Machado
G
14
E. De Los Santos
↑ 86'
M
15
D. Cheuquepal
D
19
R. Dudok
↑ 85'
F
5
J. Bosca
M
7
J. Varela
M
27
L. Loprete
81
I. Manzur
F
23
N. Sosa
↑ 67'
M
33
S. Da Silva
↑ 46'
F
Defensor Sporting 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
12
K. Dawson
G
11
L. Agazzi
D
14
F. Sorondo
D
3
G. De los Santos
D
15
A. Frugone
D
6
M. Amaro
🟨 90+2'
M
5
G. Barrios
↓ 88'
M
24
L. de los Santos
M
8
N. Wunsch
↓ 67'
M
9
A. Machado
↓ 76'
F
26
B. Montenegro
F
Substitutes
1
L. Machado
G
2
D. Martinez
25
D. Abella
F
30
E. Cuello
↑ 88'
M
33
S. Bruschi
F
27
Juan Jorge
↑ 67'
M
77
F. Castro
↑ 76'
M
18
E. Alonso
F
97
J. P. Goicochea Del Carpio
F
28
L. Navarro
F
Last matches: Racing Montevideo
22.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
0
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Wanderers
2
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
2
1
W
29.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
2
1
W
26.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Albion FC
3
1
W
21.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
4
0
W
14.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
07.11.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Miramar
2
0
W
02.11.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
1
2
L
25.10.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
2
2
D
Last matches: Defensor Sporting
24.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
0
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
1
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
2
L
04.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
1
1
D
27.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
0
1
L
31.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Albion FC
1
1
D
26.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
0
0
D
26.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
14.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
1
1
D
09.11.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
1
1
D
02.11.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
1
2
L
24.10.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
H2H: Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting
30.05.26
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
18.04.26
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
17.08.25
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
16.02.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
2
0
L
24.10.24
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
1
0
L
13.09.24
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
1
2
W
22.06.24
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
02.03.24
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
11.11.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
3
0
L
03.04.23
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
07.09.22
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
09.12.21
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
07.12.21
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
3
0
L
20.10.21
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
08.07.21
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
1
4
W
Last matches: Racing Montevideo
17.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
2
1
W
26.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
4
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
02.11.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
1
2
L
20.10.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
0
0
D
05.10.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Plaza Colonia
0
1
L
29.09.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
0
0
D
13.09.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
0
0
D
31.08.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
4
L
17.08.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
03.08.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Wanderers
1
0
W
H2H at home: Racing Montevideo
30.05.26
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
18.04.26
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
17.08.25
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
22.06.24
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
02.03.24
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
03.04.23
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
07.09.22
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
09.12.21
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
20.10.21
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
Last matches: Defensor Sporting
17.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
1
2
L
04.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
0
1
L
26.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
26.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
1
1
D
02.11.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
1
2
L
19.10.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
3
2
W
11.10.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
0
1
L
29.09.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Miramar
0
0
D
13.09.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
30.08.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
L
17.08.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
1
0
W
02.08.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
0
4
L
H2H away: Defensor Sporting
30.05.26
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
18.04.26
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
17.08.25
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
W
22.06.24
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
W
02.03.24
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
2
W
03.04.23
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
W
07.09.22
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
W
09.12.21
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
20.10.21
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.84
Draw 3.29
Home 2.06
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.77
Draw 2.05
Home 2.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.47
Over 1.75 1.61
Over 2.0 1.83
Over 2.25 2.15
Over 2.5 2.47
Over 2.75 2.84
Over 3.5 4.77
Under 1.5 2.71
Under 1.75 2.36
Under 2.0 2.01
Under 2.25 1.71
Under 2.5 1.55
Under 2.75 1.44
Under 3.5 1.19
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 3.10
Home 2.05
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.00
Home 2.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.20
Home 2.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.44
Over 2.5 2.40
Over 3.5 4.50
Over 4.5 11.00
Over 5.5 23.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 2.62
Under 2.5 1.53
Under 3.5 1.18
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.74
Draw 3.24
Home 2.02
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 1.95
Home 2.62
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.10
Draw 2.23
Home 2.36
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 0.75 1.06
Over 1.0 1.10
Over 1.25 1.27
Over 1.5 1.51
Over 1.75 1.57
Over 2.0 1.83
Over 2.25 2.09
Over 2.5 2.39
Over 2.75 2.79
Over 3.0 4.20
Over 3.25 4.03
Over 3.5 5.75
Over 3.75 5.55
Over 4.0 18.00
Over 4.5 26.00
Over 5.5 30.00
Over 6.5 36.00
Under 0.5 13.40
Under 0.75 6.05
Under 1.0 8.40
Under 1.25 3.22
Under 1.5 2.65
Under 1.75 2.23
Under 2.0 1.99
Under 2.25 1.69
Under 2.5 1.54
Under 2.75 1.37
Under 3.0 1.23
Under 3.25 1.18
Under 3.5 1.16
Under 3.75 1.08
Under 4.0 1.02
Under 4.5 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.90
Draw 3.15
Home 1.96
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.05
Home 2.65
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.30
Home 2.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.0 1.11
Over 1.5 1.42
Over 2.0 1.74
Over 2.5 2.33
Over 3.0 3.60
Over 3.25 4.00
Over 3.5 4.35
Under 0.5 6.40
Under 1.0 5.40
Under 1.5 2.60
Under 2.0 1.96
Under 2.5 1.52
Under 3.0 1.23
Under 3.25 1.20
Under 3.5 1.17

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D W D W
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
W W L D W
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
W W W W W
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D L D L
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
W L W L D
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W D W D L
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
W L L W L
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D W D W
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
L W D L W
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W L W L L
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L L W D D
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
L W L L D
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L W L W L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W W D D W
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
L L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
L L L D D