ARGENTINA PRIMERA NACIONAL
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Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 61.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
61.3%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Quilmes Win 42.5%
Draw 18.8%
Almagro Win 38.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Quilmes1.05
Almagro0.87
Recent Form (Last 5)
Quilmes Quilmes
WWDLW
23 GF / 20 GA
Almagro Almagro
WLDWL
20 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.87
0.87
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
6
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Quilmes Quilmes 23 matches
Almagro Almagro 23 matches
Quilmes Statistic Almagro
7 Wins 8
7 Draws 5
9 Losses 10
23 Goals For 20
20 Goals Against 26
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.87
0.87 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
6 BTTS Yes 8
10 Over 1.5 14
8 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 2
10 Clean Sheets 7
12 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Quilmes's more proactive style and Almagro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Almagro. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Almagro having the stronger overall control. Almagro look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Quilmes Analysis

Quilmes approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 24 points from 21 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats with a 18:17 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Almagro Analysis

So far, Almagro have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 28 points from 21 matches. The record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 19:23 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Quilmes won 1 times, Almagro won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:10 from Quilmes's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.88 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.3%)
H2H summary: Quilmes wins 1, draws 2, Almagro wins 5
Last matches: Quilmes
05.08.26
Pri
Quilmes
Gimnasia Jujuy
2
0
W
01.08.26
Pri
Quilmes
Patronato
3
3
D
26.07.26
Pri
Quilmes
Colegiales
0
1
L
12.07.26
Pri
Quilmes
Midland
0
1
L
04.07.26
Pri
Quilmes
Atlanta
2
1
W
20.06.26
Pri
Quilmes
Colegiales
1
3
L
13.06.26
Pri
Quilmes
Gimnasia Y Tiro
1
0
W
07.06.26
Pri
Quilmes
San Martin Tucuman
0
0
D
31.05.26
Pri
Quilmes
Atletico DE Rafaela
2
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Quilmes
Agropecuario
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Quilmes
Tristan Suarez
0
1
L
10.05.26
Pri
Quilmes
Club Atlético Güemes
1
2
L
04.05.26
Pri
Quilmes
Chacarita Juniors
0
0
D
25.04.26
Pri
Quilmes
San Martin S.J.
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Quilmes
Nueva Chicago
0
0
D
12.04.26
Pri
Quilmes
Temperley
3
3
D
05.04.26
Pri
Quilmes
Deportivo Maipu
2
1
W
29.03.26
Pri
Quilmes
San Telmo
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Quilmes
Almagro
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pri
Quilmes
Patronato
3
0
W
Last matches: Almagro
05.08.26
Pri
Almagro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0
2
L
01.08.26
Pri
Almagro
Midland
1
1
D
27.07.26
Pri
Almagro
Atlanta
3
1
W
12.07.26
Pri
Almagro
San Martin Tucuman
0
3
L
04.07.26
Pri
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
0
W
20.06.26
Pri
Almagro
Atlanta
2
0
W
13.06.26
Pri
Almagro
Agropecuario
2
1
W
06.06.26
Pri
Almagro
Tristan Suarez
0
0
D
31.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Club Atlético Güemes
2
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Chacarita Juniors
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pri
Almagro
San Martin S.J.
1
2
L
11.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Nueva Chicago
2
1
W
03.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Temperley
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Maipu
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Gimnasia Jujuy
1
6
L
11.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Patronato
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Colegiales
0
1
L
28.03.26
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Almagro
Quilmes
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Almagro
Midland
1
1
D
H2H: Quilmes vs Almagro
21.03.26
H2H
Almagro
Quilmes
1
0
L
31.08.25
H2H
Almagro
Quilmes
2
2
D
26.04.25
H2H
Quilmes
Almagro
0
1
L
23.09.22
H2H
Quilmes
Almagro
1
1
D
11.12.20
H2H
Almagro
Quilmes
0
1
W
11.04.20
H2H
Quilmes
Almagro
0
0
D
20.10.19
H2H
Almagro
Quilmes
2
1
L
23.09.18
H2H
Quilmes
Almagro
0
1
L
25.11.17
H2H
Quilmes
Almagro
0
2
L
Last matches: Quilmes
05.08.26
Pri
Quilmes
Gimnasia Jujuy
2
0
W
26.07.26
Pri
Quilmes
Colegiales
0
1
L
04.07.26
Pri
Quilmes
Atlanta
2
1
W
13.06.26
Pri
Quilmes
Gimnasia Y Tiro
1
0
W
31.05.26
Pri
Quilmes
Atletico DE Rafaela
2
0
W
17.05.26
Pri
Quilmes
Tristan Suarez
0
1
L
04.05.26
Pri
Quilmes
Chacarita Juniors
0
0
D
18.04.26
Pri
Quilmes
Nueva Chicago
0
0
D
05.04.26
Pri
Quilmes
Deportivo Maipu
2
1
W
14.03.26
Pri
Quilmes
Patronato
3
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Quilmes
Midland
0
0
D
H2H at home: Quilmes
26.04.25
H2H
Quilmes
Almagro
0
1
L
23.09.22
H2H
Quilmes
Almagro
1
1
D
11.04.20
H2H
Quilmes
Almagro
0
0
D
23.09.18
H2H
Quilmes
Almagro
0
1
L
25.11.17
H2H
Quilmes
Almagro
0
2
L
Last matches: Almagro
27.07.26
Pri
Almagro
Atlanta
3
1
W
12.07.26
Pri
Almagro
San Martin Tucuman
0
3
L
06.06.26
Pri
Almagro
Tristan Suarez
0
0
D
24.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Chacarita Juniors
0
1
L
11.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Nueva Chicago
2
1
W
26.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Maipu
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Gimnasia Jujuy
1
6
L
04.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Colegiales
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Almagro
Midland
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Almagro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
0
0
D
07.12.15
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
1
1
D
24.11.15
Pri
Almagro
CA Estudiantes
3
1
W
19.11.15
Pri
Almagro
Atlanta
2
1
W
07.11.15
Pri
Almagro
Comunicaciones
2
0
W
17.10.15
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Armenio
1
0
W
10.10.15
Pri
Almagro
Sportivo Italiano
0
0
D
27.09.15
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
0
1
L
19.09.15
Pri
Almagro
Platense
1
0
W
06.09.15
Pri
Almagro
Defensores De Belgrano
0
1
L
H2H away: Almagro
26.04.25
H2H
Quilmes
Almagro
0
1
W
23.09.22
H2H
Quilmes
Almagro
1
1
D
11.04.20
H2H
Quilmes
Almagro
0
0
D
23.09.18
H2H
Quilmes
Almagro
0
1
W
25.11.17
H2H
Quilmes
Almagro
0
2
W

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 12 5 6 35:27 8 41
L L W D D
2 22 10 9 3 21:12 9 39
W W W L D
3 23 9 10 4 24:20 4 37
L W W D W
4 22 11 3 8 28:22 6 36
L L W L L
5 22 9 7 6 23:16 7 34
D W W D D
6 23 9 7 7 24:22 2 34
W W W D W
7 23 9 5 9 31:24 7 32
W L D W W
8 23 8 7 8 17:19 -2 31
D W L L L
9 23 7 9 7 21:19 2 30
L L D W W
10 22 8 5 9 21:21 0 29
W W L L W
11 22 7 8 7 20:20 0 29
W L D L W
12 23 8 5 10 20:26 -6 29
L D W L W
13 23 7 7 9 23:20 3 28
W D L L W
14 21 7 6 8 22:22 0 27
D L W L W
15 22 7 5 10 18:23 -5 26
W L D W D
16 22 4 11 7 16:21 -5 23
D L D L D
17 23 5 8 10 18:28 -10 23
L W D D L
18 22 5 4 13 20:39 -19 19
L L L L L
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation