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17.10.2026 13:00
Parque Abraham Paladino

Progreso vs Juventud Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 51.1%
Odds 2.13
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 1.89
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
51.1%
2.13 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
1.89 ▥
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
1.91 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
19.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Progreso Win 35.3%
Draw 13.6%
Juventud Win 51.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Progreso1.02
Juventud1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Progreso Progreso
WWDLW
28 GF / 47 GA
Juventud Juventud
WLDWL
45 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
15
BTTS Yes
22
14
Over 2.5
17
2.25
Shots on Goal
2.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Progreso Progreso 32 matches
Juventud Juventud 38 matches
Progreso Statistic Juventud
8 Wins 12
5 Draws 12
19 Losses 14
28 Goals For 45
47 Goals Against 47
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
15 BTTS Yes 22
21 Over 1.5 25
14 Over 2.5 17
5 Over 3.5 9
4 Clean Sheets 10
13 Failed To Score 10
2.25 Shots On Goal 2.91
4.5 Total Shots 8.55
1.5 Corners 2.91
21.5% Ball Possession 37.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Juventud. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Progreso expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Juventud in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Juventud having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Progreso Analysis

With 28 points from 31 games and a place of 16, Progreso still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 19 defeats with a 27:46 goal balance points toward good form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Juventud Analysis

So far, Juventud have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 37 points from 31 matches. The record of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 35:39 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.4%)
Predicted formations: Progreso 4-2-3-1 / Juventud 4-3-1-2

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 19 7 6 51:26 25 63
D W D W W
2 32 17 8 7 50:28 22 59
D W W W L
3 32 17 6 9 53:37 16 57
W L D L W
4 32 17 4 11 48:38 10 55
W W W W D
5 32 14 11 7 36:27 9 53
L L L D W
6 32 13 11 8 43:31 12 50
D W W D L
7 32 14 8 10 41:39 2 50
L W W D D
8 32 11 7 14 42:42 0 40
W W L L L
9 32 10 10 12 37:39 -2 40
W D D W D
10 32 10 8 14 32:43 -11 38
L L L L D
11 32 10 6 16 26:47 -21 36
W L D L W
12 32 8 11 13 30:39 -9 35
L L W L W
13 32 9 7 16 32:43 -11 34
W D L L L
14 32 8 9 15 29:37 -8 33
L L L L D
15 32 5 14 13 26:41 -15 29
L W L D D
16 32 8 5 19 28:47 -19 29
D L W W L
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