URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Parque Abraham Paladino
Referee: A. M. Matonte Cabrera

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 73.2%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
No
Probability 65.8%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.53
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
73.2%
1.36
BTTS No
65.8%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.53
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50
Correct Score 0-1
-
6.50
Probability Distribution
Progreso Win 26.8%
Draw 34.8%
Danubio Win 38.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Progreso0.93
Danubio1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Progreso Progreso
WWDLW
18 GF / 38 GA
Danubio Danubio
WLDWL
22 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
0.72
Average Goals Scored
0.88
1.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
10
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Progreso Progreso 25 matches
Danubio Danubio 25 matches
Progreso Statistic Danubio
4 Wins 4
4 Draws 12
17 Losses 9
18 Goals For 22
38 Goals Against 31
0.72 Avg Goals Scored 0.88
1.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
10 BTTS Yes 12
16 Over 1.5 16
10 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 6
2 Clean Sheets 7
13 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Danubio. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Progreso have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Progreso Analysis

Progreso approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 16 points from 24 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 18:37, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Danubio Analysis

Danubio approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 23 points from 24 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 11 draws, and 9 defeats with a 22:31 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Progreso won 6 times, Danubio won 2 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:15 from Progreso's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (73.2%)
Predicted formations: Progreso 4-2-3-1 / Danubio 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Progreso wins 6, draws 7, Danubio wins 2
Last matches: Progreso
23.08.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
0
1
L
16.08.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
08.08.26
Pri
Progreso
Central Espanol
0
1
L
02.08.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
1
2
L
18.07.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
1
0
W
11.07.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
0
2
L
07.06.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
1
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
2
1
W
12.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
26.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
1
0
W
Last matches: Danubio
23.08.26
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
14.08.26
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
0
0
D
09.08.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro
0
1
L
01.08.26
Pri
Danubio
Albion FC
2
2
D
24.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
11.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
05.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
1
1
D
05.06.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
0
0
D
30.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
1
2
L
18.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
3
L
09.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Albion FC
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Central Espanol
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
30.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
26.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
1
2
L
16.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
4
1
W
H2H: Progreso vs Danubio
30.05.26
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
1
2
W
28.02.26
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
24.08.25
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
1
0
W
31.05.25
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
0
1
L
23.02.25
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
1
1
D
12.10.24
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
0
0
D
06.04.24
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
1
1
D
31.08.22
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
15.02.21
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
0
1
W
22.08.20
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
1
0
W
19.10.19
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
W
11.08.19
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
2
0
W
31.03.19
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
3
2
L
22.07.18
H2H
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
04.02.18
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
1
1
D
Last matches: Progreso
16.08.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
18.07.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
1
0
W
07.06.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
1
2
L
23.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
2
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
22.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Central Espanol
0
3
L
01.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
0
5
L
19.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
2
3
L
05.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
2
0
W
21.09.25
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
2
0
W
07.09.25
Pri
Progreso
Miramar
3
2
W
24.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
1
0
W
09.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Cerro Largo
1
2
L
29.11.23
Seg
Progreso
Albion FC
3
2
W
H2H at home: Progreso
24.08.25
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
1
0
W
31.05.25
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
0
1
L
12.10.24
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
0
0
D
31.08.22
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
22.08.20
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
1
0
W
19.10.19
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
W
11.08.19
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
2
0
W
04.02.18
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
1
1
D
Last matches: Danubio
14.08.26
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
0
0
D
01.08.26
Pri
Danubio
Albion FC
2
2
D
24.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
05.06.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
0
0
D
18.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
3
L
02.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
12.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Central Espanol
2
2
D
30.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
1
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Penarol
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
0
4
L
09.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro
1
0
W
02.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
2
1
W
17.10.25
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
0
0
D
05.10.25
Pri
Danubio
Penarol
0
2
L
19.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
06.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
2
0
W
24.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
0
1
L
18.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
H2H away: Danubio
24.08.25
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
1
0
L
31.05.25
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
0
1
W
12.10.24
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
0
0
D
31.08.22
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
22.08.20
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
1
0
L
19.10.19
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
L
11.08.19
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
2
0
L
04.02.18
H2H
Progreso
Danubio
1
1
D
Showing odds from: Bet365
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.30
Draw 2.90
Home 2.90
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.00
Home 3.75
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.25
Home 3.25
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.10
Over 1.5 1.44
Over 2.5 2.40
Over 3.5 4.50
Over 4.5 11.00
Over 5.5 23.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 7.00
Under 1.5 2.62
Under 2.5 1.53
Under 3.5 1.18
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00

Standings

Primera: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D W D W
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
W W L D W
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
W W W W W
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D L D L
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
W L W L D
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W D W D L
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
W L L W L
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D W D W
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
L W D L W
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W L W L L
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L L W D D
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
L W L L D
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L W L W L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W W D D W
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
L L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
L L L D D
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)