13.09.2026 13:00
Parque Abraham Paladino
Referee: G. Tejera

Progreso vs Cerro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 66.2%
Odds 1.53
BTTS
No
Probability 56%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.52
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
66.2%
1.53
BTTS No
56%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.52
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.31
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50
Correct Score 0-1
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
Progreso Win 33.8%
Draw 22.7%
Cerro Win 43.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Progreso1.04
Cerro0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Progreso Progreso
WWDLW
20 GF / 38 GA
Cerro Cerro
WLDWL
19 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
0.74
Average Goals Scored
0.7
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
10
BTTS Yes
11
10
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Progreso Progreso 27 matches
Cerro Cerro 27 matches
Progreso Statistic Cerro
6 Wins 8
4 Draws 5
17 Losses 14
20 Goals For 19
38 Goals Against 40
0.74 Avg Goals Scored 0.7
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
10 BTTS Yes 11
16 Over 1.5 16
10 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 6
13 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Progreso expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cerro in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cerro having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cerro. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Progreso have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Progreso Analysis

Progreso sit 16 with 22 points after 27 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 20:38 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cerro Analysis

With 29 points from 27 games and a place of 14, Cerro still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 19:40 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Progreso won 3 times, Cerro won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:3 from Progreso's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.3%)
Predicted formations: Progreso 4-2-3-1 / Cerro 4-3-3
H2H summary: Progreso wins 3, draws 1, Cerro wins 1

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 14 10 4 35:22 13 52
W L W D W
2 26 15 5 6 41:21 20 50
W L D W W
3 27 14 7 6 42:26 16 49
W L D W D
4 26 14 5 7 44:30 14 47
W W W W L
5 28 13 4 11 40:36 4 43
D D W W L
6 28 12 7 9 35:34 1 43
D L W L D
7 27 11 9 7 36:24 12 42
W D W W W
8 27 10 7 10 30:33 -3 37
D L L L W
9 27 9 7 11 35:32 3 34
L L L L L
10 27 8 8 11 28:30 -2 32
L D D D D
11 27 8 7 12 31:37 -6 31
D W W L D
12 28 8 6 14 27:38 -11 30
L L D W D
13 27 6 11 10 22:30 -8 29
D L D L L
14
Cerro Away
27 8 5 14 19:40 -21 29
W D L W W
15 27 4 12 11 22:36 -14 24
L L D D L
16 27 6 4 17 20:38 -18 22
W W L L L
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