BRAZIL SERIE D
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Estadio do Caninde

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Portuguesa Win 65.8%
Draw 5.1%
Água Santa Win 29.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Portuguesa1.2
Água Santa1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Portuguesa Portuguesa
WWDLW
8 GF / 4 GA
Água Santa Água Santa
WLDWL
10 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.67
0.67
Average Goals Conceded
1
3
BTTS Yes
2
2
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Portuguesa Portuguesa 6 matches
Água Santa Água Santa 6 matches
Portuguesa Statistic Água Santa
3 Wins 3
2 Draws 1
1 Losses 2
8 Goals For 10
4 Goals Against 6
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1
3 BTTS Yes 2
4 Over 1.5 4
2 Over 2.5 3
0 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Água Santa. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Água Santa having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Portuguesa Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 11 points from 6 games, Portuguesa bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 8:4, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Lohan (4 goals), Matheus Iacovelli (3 goals), Matheus Cadorini (2 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Água Santa Analysis

Placed 2 with 10 points from 6 outings, Água Santa continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 10:6 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Levi (3 goals), Gustavinho (2 goals), Cesinha Belli (1 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Portuguesa won 4 times, Água Santa won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:16 from Portuguesa's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
H2H summary: Portuguesa wins 4, draws 5, Água Santa wins 6
Last matches: Portuguesa
18.07.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Uberlandia
0
2
L
11.07.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Marcílio Dias
2
0
W
04.07.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
27.06.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
1
D
06.06.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Portuguesa RJ
2
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Pouso Alegre
2
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa
América RJ
4
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Madureira
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Madureira
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Água Santa
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa
América RJ
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Pouso Alegre
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Portuguesa RJ
1
1
D
09.08.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Mixto
1
0
W
02.08.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Mixto
0
1
L
26.07.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Boavista SC
3
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Portuguesa
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Água Santa
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
Last matches: Água Santa
27.06.26
Ser
Água Santa
Velo Clube
1
1
D
20.06.26
Ser
Água Santa
Velo Clube
0
0
D
06.06.26
Ser
Água Santa
América RJ
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Madureira
4
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa RJ
2
2
D
02.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa RJ
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Madureira
1
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
América RJ
4
0
W
09.08.25
Ser
Água Santa
Ceilândia
0
1
L
02.08.25
Ser
Água Santa
Ceilândia
1
1
D
26.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Nova Iguaçu
2
1
W
12.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
1
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Porto Vitória
0
0
D
28.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
Rio Branco ES
2
3
L
14.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
Boavista SC
2
0
W
07.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
H2H: Portuguesa vs Água Santa
16.05.26
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
0
0
D
25.04.26
H2H
Água Santa
Portuguesa
0
1
W
12.07.25
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
2
1
W
04.05.25
H2H
Água Santa
Portuguesa
2
1
L
12.02.25
H2H
Água Santa
Portuguesa
0
0
D
16.02.24
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
1
1
D
29.01.23
H2H
Água Santa
Portuguesa
2
1
L
06.08.22
H2H
Água Santa
Portuguesa
1
1
D
03.07.22
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
0
1
L
21.05.21
H2H
Água Santa
Portuguesa
1
2
W
19.05.21
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
0
2
L
10.03.21
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
0
3
L
09.12.20
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
1
2
L
06.12.20
H2H
Água Santa
Portuguesa
0
1
W
18.11.20
H2H
Água Santa
Portuguesa
0
0
D
Last matches: Portuguesa
11.07.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Marcílio Dias
2
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
06.06.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Portuguesa RJ
2
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa
América RJ
4
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Madureira
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa
Pouso Alegre
3
0
W
09.08.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Mixto
1
0
W
26.07.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Boavista SC
3
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Água Santa
2
1
W
28.06.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Porto Vitória
2
1
W
07.06.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
24.05.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Pouso Alegre
2
1
W
10.05.25
Ser
Portuguesa
Rio Branco ES
2
1
W
26.04.25
Ser
Portuguesa
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
H2H at home: Portuguesa
16.05.26
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
0
0
D
12.07.25
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
2
1
W
16.02.24
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
1
1
D
03.07.22
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
0
1
L
19.05.21
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
0
2
L
10.03.21
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
0
3
L
09.12.20
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
1
2
L
Last matches: Água Santa
20.06.26
Ser
Água Santa
Velo Clube
0
0
D
06.06.26
Ser
Água Santa
América RJ
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa RJ
2
2
D
18.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Madureira
1
3
L
09.08.25
Ser
Água Santa
Ceilândia
0
1
L
26.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
1
2
L
28.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
Rio Branco ES
2
3
L
07.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
24.05.25
Ser
Água Santa
Boavista SC
2
2
D
10.05.25
Ser
Água Santa
Porto Vitória
0
2
L
26.04.25
Ser
Água Santa
Nova Iguaçu
2
1
W
H2H away: Água Santa
16.05.26
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
0
0
D
12.07.25
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
2
1
L
16.02.24
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
1
1
D
03.07.22
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
0
1
W
19.05.21
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
0
2
W
10.03.21
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
0
3
W
09.12.20
H2H
Portuguesa
Água Santa
1
2
W

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)