🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
10.09.2026 02:30
Providence Park
Referee: F. Bazakos
Portland Timbers
Match Timeline
St. Louis City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
Rafael Navarro
St. Louis City
🔄
18'
D. Da Costa ↔ D. Chara
Portland Timbers
🟨
31'
Dante Polvara
St. Louis City
32'
K. Velde
Portland Timbers
🟨
36'
Jaziel Orozco
St. Louis City
🟨
45+2'
Tomas Totland
St. Louis City
🔄
46'
J. Orozco ↔ L. MacNaughton
St. Louis City
51'
Rafael Navarro
St. Louis City
🟨
58'
Eric Miller
Portland Timbers
🔄
65'
E. Miller ↔ R. Hernandez
Portland Timbers
🔄
65'
A. Lassiter ↔ Antony
Portland Timbers
🔄
65'
D. Polvara ↔ F. Fall
St. Louis City
🔄
65'
S. Jeong ↔ S. Becher
St. Louis City
🟨
67'
Rafael Navarro
St. Louis City
🔄
80'
A. Matan ↔ C. Holse
St. Louis City
🔄
80'
Rafael Santos ↔ M. Joyner
St. Louis City
🔄
81'
K. Miller ↔ I. Smith
Portland Timbers
🔄
81'
J. Ortiz ↔ O. Fernandez
Portland Timbers
🔄
89'
Rafael Navarro ↔ D. Downs
St. Louis City
89'
K. Velde · Assist: C. Bassett
Portland Timbers
🔄
90'
V. Janssen ↔ G. Guerra
Portland Timbers

Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 47.9%
Odds 2.57
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.40
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.43
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
47.9%
2.57
BTTS Yes
88%
1.40
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.43
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.9%
1.28
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.00
Probability Distribution
Portland Timbers Win 37.8%
Draw 14.3%
St. Louis City Win 47.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Portland Timbers1.69
St. Louis City1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Portland Timbers Portland Timbers
WWDLW
52 GF / 52 GA
St. Louis City St. Louis City
WLDWL
40 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.86
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
21
BTTS Yes
18
20
Over 2.5
14
4.57
Shots on Goal
4.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 28 matches
St. Louis City St. Louis City 27 matches
Portland Timbers Statistic St. Louis City
10 Wins 11
6 Draws 8
12 Losses 8
52 Goals For 40
52 Goals Against 39
1.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
21 BTTS Yes 18
26 Over 1.5 23
20 Over 2.5 14
14 Over 3.5 10
2 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 5
4.57 Shots On Goal 4.57
12.87 Total Shots 13.74
4.57 Corners 5.65
50.2% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features St. Louis City's more proactive style and Portland Timbers's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward St. Louis City. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Portland Timbers expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and St. Louis City in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward St. Louis City having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Portland Timbers Analysis

Portland Timbers sit 11 with 28 points after 22 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 39:39 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Kevin Kelsy (9 goals), Kristoffer Velde (3 goals), Cole Bassett (3 goals), with creative support from David Pereira Da Costa (6 assists), Kristoffer Velde (5 assists), Brandon Bye (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

St. Louis City Analysis

From their first 22 matches, St. Louis City have collected 34 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 33:30 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Marcel Hartel (3 goals), Simon Becher (2 goals), Eduard Löwen (2 goals), with creative support from Marcel Hartel (3 assists), Simon Becher (3 assists), Tomas Totland (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Portland Timbers won 2 times, St. Louis City won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:13 from Portland Timbers's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.43 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
Predicted formations: Portland Timbers 4-2-3-1 / St. Louis City 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Portland Timbers 5, St. Louis City 7
H2H summary: Portland Timbers wins 2, draws 2, St. Louis City wins 3

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 4 6 56:23 33 49
W L W L W
2 26 13 5 8 34:30 4 44
D L W D D
3 26 12 8 6 45:36 9 44
W W D W D
4 26 12 8 6 49:42 7 44
D W W W D
5 26 12 6 8 46:38 8 42
D W W D D
6 27 11 8 8 43:29 14 41
D L W D D
7 26 11 3 12 36:35 1 36
D W D L W
8 27 8 9 10 34:42 -8 33
W D L W L
9 26 9 5 12 47:48 -1 32
L L D W L
10 25 8 6 11 42:42 0 30
L L L W W
11 26 7 9 10 32:44 -12 30
D W D D W
12 25 8 5 12 37:42 -5 29
L L L D L
13 24 7 8 9 28:33 -5 29
D D D D D
14 26 7 8 11 39:46 -7 29
L L L L D
15 25 5 3 17 29:63 -34 18
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)