🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
10.05.2026 02:30
Providence Park
Referee: Ramy Touchan, USA
Portland Timbers
Match Timeline
Sporting Kansas City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
K. Velde · Assist: D. Da Costa
Portland Timbers
15'
K. Kelsy · Assist: D. Da Costa
Portland Timbers
🟨
19'
Lasse Berg Johnsen
Sporting Kansas City
22'
C. Bassett · Assist: K. Kelsy
Portland Timbers
26'
J. Davis
Portland Timbers
🟨
33'
José Caicedo
Portland Timbers
🟨
41'
Jacob Davis
Sporting Kansas City
🟨
45+3'
Jayden Reid
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
46'
J. Caicedo ↔ D. Chara
Portland Timbers
🔄
46'
M. Garcia ↔ C. Harris
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
46'
S. Suleymanov ↔ I. James
Sporting Kansas City
🟨
53'
Ethan Bartlow
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
60'
L. Johnsen ↔ Z. Bassong
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
61'
C. Bassett ↔ J. Ortiz
Portland Timbers
🔄
61'
D. Da Costa ↔ A. Aravena
Portland Timbers
🔄
61'
Antony ↔ A. Lassiter
Portland Timbers
🔄
61'
J. Fory ↔ I. Smith
Portland Timbers
71'
A. Lassiter
Portland Timbers
🔄
72'
D. Joveljic ↔ T. Calheira
Sporting Kansas City
74'
K. Kelsy · Assist: A. Lassiter
Portland Timbers
🟨
76'
Capita
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
76'
Capita ↔ S. Afrifa
Sporting Kansas City

Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 90.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
90.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
82%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Portland Timbers Win 90.1%
Draw 0%
Sporting Kansas City Win 9.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Portland Timbers1.64
Sporting Kansas City1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Portland Timbers Portland Timbers
WWDLW
21 GF / 30 GA
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City
WLDWL
13 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
0.81
2
Average Goals Conceded
2
10
BTTS Yes
7
9
Over 2.5
10
4.1
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 15 matches
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 16 matches
Portland Timbers Statistic Sporting Kansas City
4 Wins 4
3 Draws 2
8 Losses 10
21 Goals For 13
30 Goals Against 32
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 0.81
2 Avg Goals Conceded 2
10 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 12
9 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 5
1 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 7
4.1 Shots On Goal 3
10.9 Total Shots 6.9
3.8 Corners 3
45.5% Ball Possession 43.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sporting Kansas City. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Portland Timbers Analysis

Portland Timbers sit 13 with 10 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats with a 13:21 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on K. Velde (3 goals), K. Kelsy (2 goals), A. Lassiter (1 goals), with creative support from C. Bassett (2 assists), K. Kelsy (1 assists), Antony (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sporting Kansas City Analysis

Sporting Kansas City approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 5 points from 10 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 7 defeats with a 8:26 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on D. Joveljic (5 goals), Jacob Bartlett (1 goals), L. Johnsen (1 goals), with creative support from C. Harris (1 assists), J. Davis (1 assists), J. Reynolds (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Portland Timbers won 10 times, Sporting Kansas City won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 37:23 from Portland Timbers's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Portland Timbers 4-2-3-1 / Sporting Kansas City 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Portland Timbers 5, Sporting Kansas City 4
H2H summary: Portland Timbers wins 10, draws 3, Sporting Kansas City wins 2

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 14 4 6 53:23 30 46
L W L W W
2 25 13 4 8 32:28 4 43
L W D D L
3 25 12 7 6 49:42 7 43
W W W D L
4 25 12 5 8 44:36 8 41
W W D D L
5 25 11 8 6 42:35 7 41
W D W D W
6 26 11 7 8 41:27 14 40
L W D D D
7 25 11 2 12 33:32 1 35
W D L W L
8 25 9 5 11 47:47 0 32
L D W L D
9 25 8 6 11 42:42 0 30
L L L W W
10 26 7 9 10 31:40 -9 30
D L W L D
11 24 8 5 11 37:39 -2 29
L L D L L
12 25 7 8 10 37:43 -6 29
L L L D W
13 25 7 8 10 32:44 -12 29
W D D W D
14 23 7 7 9 25:30 -5 28
D D D D L
15 24 5 3 16 26:59 -33 18
W L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)