ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
02.05.2026 14:00
Vale Park
Referee: A. Humphries
Port Vale
Match Timeline
Lincoln
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
B. House · Assist: J. Moylan
Lincoln
🟨
22'
Conor McGrandles
Lincoln
49'
R. Street
Lincoln
🔄
57'
G. Ward ↔ G. Byers
Port Vale
🔄
58'
L. Gordon ↔ C. Hall
Port Vale
🔄
65'
T. Darikwa ↔ D. Jefferies
Lincoln
🔄
66'
O. Hernandez ↔ E. Archer
Port Vale
🔄
66'
R. Walters ↔ R. Croasdale
Port Vale
🔄
66'
C. McGrandles ↔ K. Conteh
Lincoln
🔄
66'
B. House ↔ R. One
Lincoln
🟨
73'
Kamil Conteh
Lincoln
🔄
74'
J. Moylan ↔ A. Lloyd
Lincoln
🔄
75'
R. Street ↔ E. Ring
Lincoln
🔄
83'
G. Hall ↔ E. Lake
Port Vale

Port Vale vs Lincoln Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 80%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
80%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Port Vale Win 23.4%
Draw 10.7%
Lincoln Win 65.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Port Vale0.89
Lincoln1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Port Vale Port Vale
WWDLW
45 GF / 67 GA
Lincoln Lincoln
WLDWL
88 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
1.91
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
17
BTTS Yes
24
20
Over 2.5
25
3.14
Shots on Goal
4.62

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Port Vale Port Vale 51 matches
Lincoln Lincoln 46 matches
Port Vale Statistic Lincoln
15 Wins 30
12 Draws 11
24 Losses 5
45 Goals For 88
67 Goals Against 42
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.91
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
17 BTTS Yes 24
26 Over 1.5 36
20 Over 2.5 25
12 Over 3.5 15
17 Clean Sheets 18
24 Failed To Score 5
3.14 Shots On Goal 4.62
10.92 Total Shots 12.53
4.92 Corners 4.27
44.5% Ball Possession 42.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Lincoln's more proactive style and Port Vale's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Lincoln look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Lincoln carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 100 points while Port Vale sit 22 on 42, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Port Vale expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Lincoln in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lincoln having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Lincoln.

Port Vale Analysis

With 42 points from 45 games and a place of 22, Port Vale still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 10 wins, 12 draws, and 23 losses, together with goals at 36:59, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through L. Tolaj (17 goals), D. Cole (6 goals), R. Croasdale (4 goals), with creative support from L. Tolaj (6 assists), R. Curtis (6 assists), J. Shipley (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lincoln Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 100 points from 45 games, Lincoln bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 30 wins, 10 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 87:41, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Jack Moylan (11 goals), R. Hackett-Fairchild (11 goals), Robert Street (9 goals), with creative support from R. Hackett-Fairchild (7 assists), Jack Moylan (5 assists), C. McGrandles (5 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 12 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Port Vale won 2 times, Lincoln won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:23 from Port Vale's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.91 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.3%)
Predicted formations: Port Vale 3-4-3 / Lincoln 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Port Vale wins 2, draws 2, Lincoln wins 7

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7 46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two