ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
--.--.---- --:--
Vale Park
Referee: A. Humphries
Port Vale
Match Timeline
Lincoln
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
B. House · Assist: J. Moylan
Lincoln
🟨
22'
Conor McGrandles
Lincoln
49'
R. Street
Lincoln
🔄
57'
G. Ward ↔ G. Byers
Port Vale
🔄
58'
L. Gordon ↔ C. Hall
Port Vale
🔄
65'
T. Darikwa ↔ D. Jefferies
Lincoln
🔄
66'
O. Hernandez ↔ E. Archer
Port Vale
🔄
66'
R. Walters ↔ R. Croasdale
Port Vale
🔄
66'
C. McGrandles ↔ K. Conteh
Lincoln
🔄
66'
B. House ↔ R. One
Lincoln
🟨
73'
Kamil Conteh
Lincoln
🔄
74'
J. Moylan ↔ A. Lloyd
Lincoln
🔄
75'
R. Street ↔ E. Ring
Lincoln
🔄
83'
G. Hall ↔ E. Lake
Port Vale

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 80%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
80%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Port Vale Win 23.4%
Draw 10.7%
Lincoln Win 65.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Port Vale0.89
Lincoln1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Port Vale Port Vale
WWDLW
45 GF / 67 GA
Lincoln Lincoln
WLDWL
88 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
1.91
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
17
BTTS Yes
24
20
Over 2.5
25
3.14
Shots on Goal
4.62

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Port Vale Port Vale 51 matches
Lincoln Lincoln 46 matches
Port Vale Statistic Lincoln
15 Wins 30
12 Draws 11
24 Losses 5
45 Goals For 88
67 Goals Against 42
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.91
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
17 BTTS Yes 24
26 Over 1.5 36
20 Over 2.5 25
12 Over 3.5 15
17 Clean Sheets 18
24 Failed To Score 5
3.14 Shots On Goal 4.62
10.92 Total Shots 12.53
4.92 Corners 4.27
44.5% Ball Possession 42.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Lincoln's more proactive style and Port Vale's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Lincoln look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Lincoln carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 100 points while Port Vale sit 22 on 42, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Port Vale expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Lincoln in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lincoln having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Lincoln.

Port Vale Analysis

With 42 points from 45 games and a place of 22, Port Vale still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 10 wins, 12 draws, and 23 losses, together with goals at 36:59, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through L. Tolaj (17 goals), D. Cole (6 goals), R. Croasdale (4 goals), with creative support from L. Tolaj (6 assists), R. Curtis (6 assists), J. Shipley (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lincoln Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 100 points from 45 games, Lincoln bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 30 wins, 10 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 87:41, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Jack Moylan (11 goals), R. Hackett-Fairchild (11 goals), Robert Street (9 goals), with creative support from R. Hackett-Fairchild (7 assists), Jack Moylan (5 assists), C. McGrandles (5 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 12 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Port Vale won 2 times, Lincoln won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:23 from Port Vale's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.91 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.3%)
Predicted formations: Port Vale 3-4-3 / Lincoln 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Port Vale wins 2, draws 2, Lincoln wins 7
Stats
Port Vale Port Vale
Lincoln Lincoln
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
5
2 Corner Kicks 6
7 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 3
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Goal 3
8 Shots off Goal 3
4 Blocked Shots 5
7 Shots insidebox 9
6 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 0
419 Total passes 303
342 Passes accurate 208
1.00 expected_goals 2.30
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Port Vale
Formation
Lincoln
J. Gauci
J. Gauci
J. Lawrence-Gabriel
J. Lawrence-Gabriel
T. Magloire
T. Magloire
C. Humphreys
C. Humphreys
L. Gordon
L. Gordon
R. Walters
R. Walters
G. Ward
G. Ward
G. Hall
G. Hall
B. Garrity
B. Garrity
O. Hernandez
O. Hernandez
M. Sherif
M. Sherif
G. Wickens
G. Wickens
T. Darikwa
T. Darikwa
D. Elerewe
D. Elerewe
S. Bradley
S. Bradley
R. Towler
R. Towler
T. Bayliss
T. Bayliss
C. McGrandles
C. McGrandles
R. Hackett-Fairchild
R. Hackett-Fairchild
J. Moylan
🎯
J. Moylan
B. House
B. House
R. Street
R. Street
Port Vale 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
46
J. Gauci
G
6
J. Lawrence-Gabriel
D
35
T. Magloire
D
25
C. Humphreys
D
15
L. Gordon
↓ 58'
D
12
R. Walters
↓ 66'
M
28
G. Ward
↓ 57'
M
33
G. Hall
↓ 83'
M
8
B. Garrity
M
50
O. Hernandez
↓ 66'
M
21
M. Sherif
Substitutes
13
B. Amos
G
11
E. Archer
↑ 66'
M
18
R. Croasdale
↑ 66'
M
4
B. Heneghan
D
7
G. Byers
↑ 57'
M
5
C. Hall
↑ 58'
D
31
E. Lake
↑ 83'
F
Lincoln 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
G. Wickens
G
2
T. Darikwa
↓ 65'
D
25
D. Elerewe
D
15
S. Bradley
D
6
R. Towler
D
8
T. Bayliss
M
14
C. McGrandles
↓ 66' 🟨 22'
M
7
R. Hackett-Fairchild
M
10
J. Moylan
🎯 9' ↓ 74'
M
18
B. House
⚽ 9' ↓ 66'
M
17
R. Street
⚽ 49' ↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
13
Z. Jeacock
G
11
O. Thorn
F
28
K. Conteh
↑ 66' 🟨 73'
M
20
R. One
↑ 66'
F
16
D. Jefferies
↑ 65'
M
12
E. Ring
↑ 75'
M
19
A. Lloyd
↑ 74'
F
Last matches: Port Vale
28.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Stockport County
2
1
W
25.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Plymouth
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Cardiff
0
1
L
19.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Wigan
0
0
D
16.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Peterborough
3
1
W
14.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Barnsley
0
0
D
07.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Rotherham
1
0
W
04.04.26
FA
Port Vale
Chelsea
0
7
L
28.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Wycombe
0
4
L
24.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Doncaster
0
1
L
21.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Bolton
1
0
W
17.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Blackpool
2
3
L
14.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Huddersfield
0
0
D
11.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Bradford
0
2
L
08.03.26
FA
Port Vale
Sunderland
1
0
W
03.03.26
FA
Port Vale
Bristol City
1
0
W
28.02.26
Lea
Port Vale
Luton
1
1
D
24.02.26
Lea
Port Vale
Northampton
1
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Port Vale
Reading
1
1
D
17.02.26
Lea
Port Vale
Stevenage
1
2
L
Last matches: Lincoln
25.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
Wycombe
4
3
W
21.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
Doncaster
2
0
W
18.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
Stevenage
2
2
D
11.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
Leyton Orient
2
1
W
06.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
Reading
2
1
W
03.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
AFC Wimbledon
1
0
W
21.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Rotherham
3
0
W
17.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Huddersfield
2
2
D
14.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Stockport County
3
1
W
10.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Exeter City
1
0
W
07.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Cardiff
2
0
W
28.02.26
Lea
Lincoln
Blackpool
4
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Lincoln
Mansfield Town
2
0
W
17.02.26
Lea
Lincoln
Northampton
4
0
W
14.02.26
Lea
Lincoln
Bolton
1
1
D
07.02.26
Lea
Lincoln
Plymouth
4
1
W
31.01.26
Lea
Lincoln
Wigan
1
0
W
27.01.26
Lea
Lincoln
Bradford
3
0
W
22.01.26
Lea
Lincoln
Burton Albion
2
1
W
17.01.26
Lea
Lincoln
Luton
2
2
D
H2H: Port Vale vs Lincoln
02.05.26
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
0
2
L
29.11.25
H2H
Lincoln
Port Vale
1
0
L
24.02.24
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
0
2
L
11.11.23
H2H
Lincoln
Port Vale
1
1
D
15.04.23
H2H
Lincoln
Port Vale
3
2
L
29.10.22
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
1
0
W
01.01.19
H2H
Lincoln
Port Vale
1
1
D
13.10.18
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
2
6
L
14.08.18
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
0
4
L
14.04.18
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
1
0
W
25.11.17
H2H
Lincoln
Port Vale
3
1
L
Last matches: Port Vale
19.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Wigan
0
0
D
14.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Barnsley
0
0
D
07.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Rotherham
1
0
W
21.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Bolton
1
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Huddersfield
0
0
D
11.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Bradford
0
2
L
08.03.26
FA
Port Vale
Sunderland
1
0
W
03.03.26
FA
Port Vale
Bristol City
1
0
W
28.02.26
Lea
Port Vale
Luton
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lea
Port Vale
Reading
1
1
D
07.02.26
Lea
Port Vale
Burton Albion
2
2
D
03.02.26
Lea
Port Vale
AFC Wimbledon
0
1
L
24.01.26
Lea
Port Vale
Exeter City
1
3
L
09.01.26
FA
Port Vale
Fleetwood Town
1
0
W
01.01.26
Lea
Port Vale
Blackpool
5
1
W
20.12.25
Lea
Port Vale
Peterborough
0
1
L
06.12.25
FA
Port Vale
Bristol Rovers
1
0
W
22.11.25
Lea
Port Vale
Plymouth
0
1
L
15.11.25
Lea
Port Vale
Wycombe
0
0
D
02.11.25
FA
Port Vale
Maldon & Tiptree
5
1
W
H2H at home: Port Vale
02.05.26
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
0
2
L
24.02.24
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
0
2
L
29.10.22
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
1
0
W
13.10.18
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
2
6
L
14.08.18
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
0
4
L
14.04.18
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
1
0
W
Last matches: Lincoln
21.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
Doncaster
2
0
W
18.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
Stevenage
2
2
D
06.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
Reading
2
1
W
17.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Huddersfield
2
2
D
10.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Exeter City
1
0
W
07.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Cardiff
2
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Lincoln
Mansfield Town
2
0
W
07.02.26
Lea
Lincoln
Plymouth
4
1
W
31.01.26
Lea
Lincoln
Wigan
1
0
W
17.01.26
Lea
Lincoln
Luton
2
2
D
29.12.25
Lea
Lincoln
Barnsley
2
0
W
26.12.25
Lea
Lincoln
Stockport County
2
1
W
13.12.25
Lea
Lincoln
Blackpool
2
2
D
22.11.25
Lea
Lincoln
Wycombe
2
3
L
08.11.25
Lea
Lincoln
Rotherham
0
3
L
01.11.25
FA
Lincoln
Salford City
1
1
D
28.10.25
Lea
Lincoln
Bradford
0
0
D
25.10.25
Lea
Lincoln
Leyton Orient
0
1
L
27.09.25
Lea
Lincoln
Peterborough
3
0
W
13.09.25
Lea
Lincoln
Burton Albion
1
0
W
H2H away: Lincoln
02.05.26
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
0
2
W
24.02.24
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
0
2
W
29.10.22
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
1
0
L
13.10.18
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
2
6
W
14.08.18
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
0
4
W
14.04.18
H2H
Port Vale
Lincoln
1
0
L

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7 46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two