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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
10.10.2026 14:00
Vale Park
Port Vale
Match Timeline
Grimsby
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
42'
George Cardinal Joseph·Hall
Port Vale
⚽
45'
Kyle Dempsey · Assist: Jaheim·Headley
Port Vale
🟨
45+1'
Finn Cartwright
Grimsby
🔄
70'
Finn Cartwright ↔ Jamie Walker
Grimsby
🔄
70'
Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor ↔ Iwan Morgan
Grimsby
🔄
71'
George Cardinal Joseph·Hall ↔ Rhys Walters
Port Vale
🔄
71'
Max Watters ↔ Oliver Lynch
Port Vale
🔄
79'
Onel Hernández ↔ Ben Waine
Port Vale
🔄
84'
Kyle Dempsey ↔ George Byers
Port Vale

Port Vale vs Grimsby Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.9%
Odds 2.86
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 1.97
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.9%
2.86 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
1.97 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.20 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Port Vale Win 54.9%
Draw 4.5%
Grimsby Win 40.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Port Vale1.06
Grimsby1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Port Vale Port Vale
WWDLW
13 GF / 10 GA
Grimsby Grimsby
WLDWL
27 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.69
0.91
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
3
BTTS Yes
8
3
Over 2.5
8
2.86
Shots on Goal
4.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Port Vale Port Vale 11 matches
Grimsby Grimsby 16 matches
Port Vale Statistic Grimsby
5 Wins 7
2 Draws 7
4 Losses 2
13 Goals For 27
10 Goals Against 14
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
0.91 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
3 BTTS Yes 8
6 Over 1.5 12
3 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 3
2.86 Shots On Goal 4.89
10.71 Total Shots 15.67
4.71 Corners 7
51% Ball Possession 55.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Grimsby's more proactive style and Port Vale's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Grimsby. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Port Vale expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Grimsby in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Grimsby having the stronger overall control. Grimsby carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 13 points while Port Vale sit 23 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Port Vale have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Port Vale Analysis

With 5 points from 7 games and a place of 23, Port Vale still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 3:9 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on G. Byers (2 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Grimsby Analysis

From their first 9 matches, Grimsby have collected 13 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. The record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 13:10 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Green (3 goals), Iwan Morgan (1 goals), G. Turi (1 goals), with creative support from Iwan Morgan (2 assists), K. Green (1 assists), G. Turi (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Port Vale won 1 times, Grimsby won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:19 from Port Vale's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.42 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Port Vale 3-4-2-1 / Grimsby 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Port Vale wins 1, draws 4, Grimsby wins 7

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 1 3 15:10 5 19
W W W W D
2 8 5 3 0 20:11 9 18
W W W D D
3 10 4 6 0 12:7 5 18
W W D D D
4 10 4 4 2 15:10 5 16
W D L W W
5 9 4 3 2 17:11 6 15
D W L W D
6 9 3 6 0 12:6 6 15
D D W D D
7 10 4 3 3 17:14 3 15
D W L W W
8 10 4 3 3 16:16 0 15
L L W D W
9 10 5 0 5 15:17 -2 15
L L W L L
10 10 4 2 4 11:12 -1 14
D W W W D
11 10 3 4 3 13:11 2 13
L L L W W
12 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
W D W D D
13 10 2 6 2 13:13 0 12
D L D D L
14 10 3 3 4 6:6 0 12
W W L D L
15 10 2 5 3 13:14 -1 11
D W D D L
16 10 2 5 3 10:11 -1 11
D L L L D
17 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L L D L L
18 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
L W D D W
19 9 2 4 3 10:13 -3 10
L D D D L
20 10 2 4 4 12:16 -4 10
L L D W D
21 9 2 2 5 9:13 -4 8
D L L L L
22 8 2 2 4 4:9 -5 8
W L W L L
23 8 1 4 3 4:7 -3 7
D L L W D
24 8 1 2 5 8:15 -7 5
D L L L D
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League