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14.11.2026 15:00
Vale Park

Port Vale vs Accrington ST Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 76.4%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 2.08
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
76.4%
1.28 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
2.08 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Port Vale Win 47.4%
Draw 29%
Accrington ST Win 23.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Port Vale1.36
Accrington ST1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Port Vale Port Vale
W W W L D
14 GF / 7 GA
Accrington ST Accrington ST
W L D W D
11 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
1.57
0.9
Average Goals Conceded
1
7
BTTS Yes
11
6
Over 2.5
10
4.06
Shots on Goal
4.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Port Vale Port Vale 20 matches
Accrington ST Accrington ST 23 matches
Port Vale Statistic Accrington ST
11 Wins 8
4 Draws 11
5 Losses 4
32 Goals For 36
18 Goals Against 23
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
0.9 Avg Goals Conceded 1
7 BTTS Yes 11
13 Over 1.5 17
6 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 8
9 Clean Sheets 10
5 Failed To Score 6
4.06 Shots On Goal 4.89
11.56 Total Shots 15.44
4.5 Corners 5.17
49.5% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Accrington ST's more proactive style and Port Vale's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Accrington ST. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Accrington ST carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 19 points while Port Vale sit 19 on 15, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Port Vale expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Accrington ST in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Accrington ST having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Port Vale Analysis

With 15 points from 12 games and a place of 19, Port Vale still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats with a 10:14 goal balance points toward good form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on G. Byers (3 goals), O. Hernández (2 goals), K. Figueroa (2 goals), with creative support from K. Dempsey (1 assists), J. Headley (1 assists), G. Hall (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Accrington ST Analysis

Accrington ST are currently 9 in the standings with 19 points from 14 matches. The record of 4 wins, 7 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 23:17 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Woods (6 goals), C. Warren (4 goals), C. Caton (3 goals), with creative support from Stefan Mols (4 assists), T. Walton (3 assists), J. Woods (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Port Vale won 5 times, Accrington ST won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:18 from Port Vale's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (76.4%)
Predicted formations: Port Vale 3-5-2 / Accrington ST 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Port Vale wins 5, draws 3, Accrington ST wins 4

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 1 3 25:15 10 31
W W W W W
2 13 7 5 1 28:18 10 26
D W D L W
3 13 5 7 1 21:12 9 22
W L W D D
4 14 5 7 2 17:17 0 22
D L L W W
5 14 6 3 5 23:25 -2 21
L W W L L
6 14 5 5 4 24:18 6 20
W W D L L
7 14 5 5 4 24:21 3 20
L L W D D
8 14 5 5 4 20:19 1 20
W L D L W
9 14 4 7 3 23:17 6 19
D W D W D
10 14 5 4 5 24:21 3 19
L W D L D
11 14 4 7 3 19:17 2 19
W D W L D
12 14 5 4 5 11:9 2 19
L W W D W
13 14 5 4 5 15:17 -2 19
W D W D L
14 14 4 6 4 20:17 3 18
W L D D W
15 14 5 3 6 17:22 -5 18
L D W W L
16 14 4 5 5 18:18 0 17
W L L W D
17 14 5 1 8 17:23 -6 16
L D L L L
18 14 4 3 7 15:19 -4 15
W L D L W
19 12 4 3 5 10:14 -4 15
W L D W W
20 14 4 3 7 17:26 -9 15
L L D L D
21 13 3 5 5 9:10 -1 14
L D W L W
22 14 2 6 6 18:25 -7 12
L D D L L
23 13 2 6 5 12:19 -7 12
L L D D L
24 12 2 3 7 13:21 -8 9
W D L L D
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League