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14.11.2026 19:30
Moisés Lucarelli

Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Ponte Preta Win 19%
Draw 23.6%
Operario-PR Win 57.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ponte Preta0.88
Operario-PR1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
L L D D L
4 GF / 11 GA
Operario-PR Operario-PR
W L W L L
5 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
0.57
Average Goals Scored
1.32
2.14
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
15
BTTS Yes
20
15
Over 2.5
23
3.19
Shots on Goal
4.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 37 matches
Operario-PR Operario-PR 37 matches
Ponte Preta Statistic Operario-PR
3 Wins 15
6 Draws 9
28 Losses 13
21 Goals For 49
79 Goals Against 50
0.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
2.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
15 BTTS Yes 20
31 Over 1.5 27
15 Over 2.5 23
8 Over 3.5 8
3 Clean Sheets 12
20 Failed To Score 9
3.19 Shots On Goal 4.08
10.11 Total Shots 14.08
3.97 Corners 5.05
39.6% Ball Possession 51.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Operario-PR. Operario-PR carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 10 with 54 points while Ponte Preta sit 20 on 15, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ponte Preta expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Operario-PR in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Operario-PR having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Ponte Preta Analysis

With 15 points from 36 games and a place of 20, Ponte Preta still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 6 draws, and 27 defeats, and the 21:78 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Brandão (4 goals), William Pottker (4 goals), Elvis (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Operario-PR Analysis

Operario-PR sit 10 with 54 points after 37 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 15 wins, 9 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 49:50, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Boschilia (12 goals), Vinícius Diniz (6 goals), Pablo (5 goals), with creative support from Boschilia (4 assists), Mikael Doka (4 assists), Aylon (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (81%)
Predicted formations: Ponte Preta 5-4-1 / Operario-PR 4-2-3-1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 37 20 10 7 66:32 34 70
W W W D W
2 37 19 11 7 49:26 23 68
W D W D D
3 37 19 9 9 53:38 15 66
W D L D W
4 37 18 8 11 38:31 7 62
L W L W W
5 37 16 14 7 44:33 11 62
L D D W D
6 37 17 7 13 57:51 6 58
W L W L D
7 37 17 7 13 39:41 -2 58
W W W D W
8 37 15 13 9 45:35 10 58
W D L D D
9 37 14 13 10 50:42 8 55
L D W L D
10 37 15 9 13 49:50 -1 54
W L W L L
11 37 14 10 13 52:42 10 52
L W W L D
12 37 14 9 14 45:39 6 51
W D W W W
13 37 11 14 12 34:32 2 47
L L L L L
14 37 11 14 12 44:44 0 47
L W L D D
15 37 12 10 15 40:49 -9 46
L W L D L
16 37 11 10 16 38:47 -9 43
L L L D L
17 37 11 7 19 35:47 -12 40
W L L D W
18 37 8 8 21 45:58 -13 32
L L L W D
19 37 8 5 24 27:55 -28 29
W W W W L
20 37 3 6 28 21:79 -58 15
L L D D L
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