BRAZIL SERIE B
22.06.2026 23:00
Moisés Lucarelli
Referee: M. Lima Barbosa
Ponte Preta
Match Timeline
Novorizontino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Tavinho
Novorizontino
🟥
17'
Marcio Silva
Ponte Preta
🟨
24'
André Lima
Ponte Preta
32'
Robson
Novorizontino
🟨
45+4'
Nilson Castrillón
Novorizontino
🔄
46'
Andre Lima ↔ Leo Gomes
Ponte Preta
🔄
46'
Rodrigo Souza ↔ M. L. Diego
Ponte Preta
🔄
46'
Baianinho ↔ Diego Tavares
Ponte Preta
🔄
46'
N. Castrillon ↔ Juninho
Novorizontino
🔄
46'
Tavinho ↔ Ivan Alvarino
Novorizontino
🔄
56'
Elvis ↔ David da Hora
Ponte Preta
59'
Robson · Assist: Maykon Jesus
Novorizontino
🔄
67'
Willian Pottker ↔ Gustavo Telles
Ponte Preta
🟨
70'
Gabriel Bahia
Novorizontino
🔄
73'
Robson ↔ Carlao
Novorizontino
🔄
80'
Romulo ↔ C. Ortiz
Novorizontino
🔄
82'
Reidiney ↔ Nicolas Careca
Novorizontino

Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 62.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
62.9%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.9%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ponte Preta Win 20.2%
Draw 17%
Novorizontino Win 62.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ponte Preta0.86
Novorizontino1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WWDLW
10 GF / 25 GA
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WLDWL
20 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
0.77
Average Goals Scored
1.54
1.92
Average Goals Conceded
1
7
BTTS Yes
7
8
Over 2.5
7
3.54
Shots on Goal
4.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 13 matches
Novorizontino Novorizontino 13 matches
Ponte Preta Statistic Novorizontino
2 Wins 5
2 Draws 6
9 Losses 2
10 Goals For 20
25 Goals Against 13
0.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
1.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1
7 BTTS Yes 7
9 Over 1.5 9
8 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 3
3.54 Shots On Goal 4.54
10.85 Total Shots 13.38
5.54 Corners 5.15
44.3% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Novorizontino's more proactive style and Ponte Preta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Novorizontino. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Novorizontino carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 20 points while Ponte Preta sit 19 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Ponte Preta have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Ponte Preta Analysis

With 8 points from 13 games and a place of 19, Ponte Preta still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 10:25, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Willian Pottker (2 goals), Bryan Borges (1 goals), Danilo Barcelos (1 goals), with creative support from Diego Tavares (3 assists), Elvis (1 assists), Luis Phelipe (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Novorizontino Analysis

Novorizontino approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 20 points after 12 outings. They have recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, with a 18:11 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Robson (6 goals), Romulo (3 goals), Carlao (2 goals), with creative support from Romulo (6 assists), Juninho (3 assists), Robson (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ponte Preta won 4 times, Novorizontino won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:16 from Ponte Preta's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83%)
Predicted formations: Ponte Preta 4-2-3-1 / Novorizontino 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ponte Preta wins 4, draws 5, Novorizontino wins 6

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 29 13 8 8 41:36 5 47
W D W W D
6 29 13 8 8 28:27 1 47
L L L W L
7 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
8 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 10 13 6 30:22 8 43
W D W L W
11 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
12 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
13 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
14 29 10 8 11 35:36 -1 38
L D L W W
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation