BRAZIL SERIE B
18.07.2026 19:00
Moisés Lucarelli
Referee: C. Deretti
Ponte Preta
Match Timeline
Goias
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
Kadu · Assist: Cadu
Goias
🟨
23'
Sergio Palacios
Ponte Preta
🟨
24'
Ramon Menezes
Goias
VAR
44'
Kevyson
Ponte Preta
45'
Elvis
Ponte Preta
45'
Kadu · Assist: Lucas Lima
Goias
🔄
46'
Juan Rodrigues ↔ Baianinho
Ponte Preta
🔄
46'
David da Hora ↔ Brandao
Ponte Preta
🔄
57'
Ramon Menezes ↔ Lucas Ribeiro
Goias
🔄
58'
Miguel Morais ↔ Diego Porfirio
Ponte Preta
VAR
63'
Jean Carlos
Goias
66'
Cadu
Goias
🔄
66'
Rodrigo Soares ↔ Luisao
Goias
🔄
67'
Djalma Silva ↔ Nicolas
Goias
🔄
67'
Lucas Lima ↔ Lourenco
Goias
🔄
74'
M. L. Diego ↔ Nicolas Araujo
Ponte Preta
🟨
82'
Lucas Ribeiro
Goias
🔄
82'
Jean Carlos ↔ Gege
Goias
🔄
86'
Julio ↔ Rodriguinho
Ponte Preta

Ponte Preta vs Goias Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 87.1%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
87.1%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
69.1%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ponte Preta Win 6.9%
Draw 6%
Goias Win 87.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ponte Preta0.93
Goias1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WWDLW
11 GF / 33 GA
Goias Goias
WLDWL
18 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
0.65
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1.94
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
8
BTTS Yes
6
9
Over 2.5
6
3.24
Shots on Goal
3.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 17 matches
Goias Goias 17 matches
Ponte Preta Statistic Goias
2 Wins 7
2 Draws 4
13 Losses 6
11 Goals For 18
33 Goals Against 23
0.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
8 BTTS Yes 6
13 Over 1.5 12
9 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 5
3.24 Shots On Goal 3.35
10.59 Total Shots 10.35
5.06 Corners 4
43.1% Ball Possession 48.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Goias carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 25 points while Ponte Preta sit 19 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ponte Preta expected to line up in 3-3-1-3 and Goias in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Goias having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Goias. Ponte Preta have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Ponte Preta Analysis

Ponte Preta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 8 points from 17 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 11:33, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through William Pottker (2 goals), Diego Tavares (1 goals), Elvis (1 goals), with creative support from Diego Tavares (3 assists), Elvis (1 assists), Luis Phelipe (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Goias Analysis

Goias sit 9 with 25 points after 17 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 18:23 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Anselmo Ramon (5 goals), Gegê (2 goals), Kadu (2 goals), with creative support from Esli García (3 assists), Diego Caito (2 assists), Rodrigo Soares (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Ponte Preta won 3 times, Goias won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:16 from Ponte Preta's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.55 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
Predicted formations: Ponte Preta 3-3-1-3 / Goias 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ponte Preta wins 3, draws 4, Goias wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 14 8 6 48:25 23 50
D W W W W
2 28 14 8 6 30:17 13 50
L W D D W
3 28 14 6 8 40:31 9 48
D W L W D
4 28 13 9 6 31:23 8 48
D W W D W
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 28 12 10 6 36:26 10 46
W W D W W
7 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W W L
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 28 10 11 7 37:28 9 41
L W L L W
10 28 10 10 8 33:30 3 40
W L W L L
11 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
12
Goias Away
28 11 6 11 28:34 -6 39
W L L W D
13 28 10 8 10 39:31 8 38
W L W L D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 28 8 8 12 29:36 -7 32
D L W L W
16 28 8 7 13 31:35 -4 31
L L L L L
17 28 8 6 14 29:36 -7 30
D L L L W
18 28 7 7 14 38:39 -1 28
W W L D L
19 28 4 5 19 21:48 -27 17
L W L W L
20 28 2 4 22 16:62 -46 10
L L L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation