BRAZIL SERIE B
08.07.2026 23:00
Moisés Lucarelli
Referee: W. Oliveira
Ponte Preta
Match Timeline
Criciuma
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
Marcelo Hermes · Assist: Willean Lepo
Criciuma
🟨
18'
Lucas Cunha
Ponte Preta
🔄
46'
Diego Tavares ↔ Diego Porfirio
Ponte Preta
🔄
46'
Andre Lima ↔ Baianinho
Ponte Preta
🔄
46'
David da Hora ↔ Juan Rodrigues
Ponte Preta
62'
Baianinho
Ponte Preta
🔄
67'
R. Otero ↔ Jhonata Robert
Criciuma
🔄
67'
Waguininho ↔ Diego Goncalves
Criciuma
🟨
71'
Danilo Barcelos
Ponte Preta
🔄
81'
Fellipe Mateus ↔ Romarinho
Criciuma
🔄
83'
Brandao ↔ Miguel Morais
Ponte Preta
🟨
88'
Willean Lepo
Criciuma
🔄
89'
Eduardo ↔ Caue Santos
Criciuma
🟨
90+5'
Marcio Silva
Ponte Preta
🟨
90+5'
Elvis
Ponte Preta
🔄
90'
Gui Lobo ↔ Jean Irmer
Criciuma
90'
Marcelo Hermes · Assist: Luciano Castan
Criciuma

Ponte Preta vs Criciuma Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
88%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
77%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ponte Preta Win 6%
Draw 6%
Criciuma Win 88%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ponte Preta0.65
Criciuma1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WWDLW
10 GF / 31 GA
Criciuma Criciuma
WLDWL
18 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
0.63
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.94
Average Goals Conceded
0.69
7
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
3
3.19
Shots on Goal
3.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 16 matches
Criciuma Criciuma 16 matches
Ponte Preta Statistic Criciuma
2 Wins 8
2 Draws 6
12 Losses 2
10 Goals For 18
31 Goals Against 11
0.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.94 Avg Goals Conceded 0.69
7 BTTS Yes 8
12 Over 1.5 8
8 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 7
8 Failed To Score 2
3.19 Shots On Goal 3.81
10.56 Total Shots 13.13
5.31 Corners 6.06
42.8% Ball Possession 51.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Criciuma's more proactive style and Ponte Preta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Criciuma carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 27 points while Ponte Preta sit 19 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ponte Preta expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Criciuma in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Criciuma having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Criciuma look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Criciuma.

Ponte Preta Analysis

With 8 points from 15 games and a place of 19, Ponte Preta still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 10:29 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on William Pottker (2 goals), Diego Tavares (1 goals), Elvis (1 goals), with creative support from Diego Tavares (3 assists), Elvis (1 assists), Luis Phelipe (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Criciuma Analysis

Criciuma come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 27 points after 15 matches. They have recorded 7 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, with a 17:11 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Fellipe Mateus (3 goals), R. Otero (2 goals), Waguininho (2 goals), with creative support from R. Otero (2 assists), Romarinho (2 assists), Waguininho (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Ponte Preta won 3 times, Criciuma won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:13 from Ponte Preta's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (94%)
Predicted formations: Ponte Preta 4-2-3-1 / Criciuma 3-4-3
H2H summary: Ponte Preta wins 3, draws 6, Criciuma wins 3

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 29 13 8 8 41:36 5 47
W D W W D
6 29 13 8 8 28:27 1 47
L L L W L
7 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
8 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 10 13 6 30:22 8 43
W D W L W
11 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
12 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
13 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
14 29 10 8 11 35:36 -1 38
L D L W W
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
Promotion
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