BRAZIL SERIE B
24.04.2026 23:00
Moisés Lucarelli
Referee: L. Casagrande
Ponte Preta
Match Timeline
America Mineiro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Rafael Barcelos
America Mineiro
🟨
33'
William Pottker
Ponte Preta
44'
Willian Pottker · Assist: Luis Phelipe
Ponte Preta
🔄
46'
Willian Pottker ↔ Brandao
Ponte Preta
🔄
46'
Yago Santos ↔ Jhonatan Lima
America Mineiro
🔄
46'
Dalbert ↔ Paulinho
America Mineiro
🟨
56'
Kevyson
Ponte Preta
🟨
56'
Matías Segovia
America Mineiro
🔄
60'
Luis Phelipe ↔ Miguel Morais
Ponte Preta
🔄
64'
M. Segovia ↔ Paulo Victor
America Mineiro
🔄
64'
Eduardo Person ↔ Yago Souza
America Mineiro
🔄
71'
Diego Tavares ↔ Jonathan Cafu
Ponte Preta
🔄
71'
Thalys ↔ Lucas Justen
Ponte Preta
🟨
72'
Jonathan Cafú
Ponte Preta
🟨
74'
Miguel
Ponte Preta
🔄
78'
Murilo ↔ Rodrigo Souza
Ponte Preta
🔄
80'
Gonzalo Mastriani ↔ Willian Bigode
America Mineiro

Ponte Preta vs America Mineiro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw or Away
Probability 84%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 61.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw or Away
84%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
61.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Ponte Preta Win 16%
Draw 45.8%
America Mineiro Win 38.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ponte Preta1.2
America Mineiro0.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WWDLW
4 GF / 6 GA
America Mineiro America Mineiro
WLDWL
3 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
0.8
Average Goals Scored
0.6
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.8
3
BTTS Yes
3
2
Over 2.5
3
4.8
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 5 matches
America Mineiro America Mineiro 5 matches
Ponte Preta Statistic America Mineiro
1 Wins 0
1 Draws 2
3 Losses 3
4 Goals For 3
6 Goals Against 9
0.8 Avg Goals Scored 0.6
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.8
3 BTTS Yes 3
3 Over 1.5 4
2 Over 2.5 3
0 Over 3.5 1
0 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 2
4.8 Shots On Goal 5
10.4 Total Shots 15.6
4.6 Corners 7.6
46.8% Ball Possession 60.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward America Mineiro. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ponte Preta expected to line up in 4-3-2-1 and America Mineiro in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward America Mineiro having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Ponte Preta Analysis

Ponte Preta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 4 points from 5 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 2:5 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Bryan Borges (1 goals), Diego Tavares (1 goals), Luis Phelipe (1 goals), with creative support from Brandao (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

America Mineiro Analysis

America Mineiro sit 20 with 2 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 3:9 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gonzalo Mastriani (3 goals), with creative support from Willian Bigode (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Ponte Preta won 2 times, America Mineiro won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:18 from Ponte Preta's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Draw or Away
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (84%)
Predicted formations: Ponte Preta 4-3-2-1 / America Mineiro 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Ponte Preta wins 2, draws 4, America Mineiro wins 7

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 13 7 5 26:13 13 46
D W W D W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 25 11 8 6 28:22 6 41
D W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 25 10 7 8 31:32 -1 37
D D L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16 25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17 25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 25 5 7 13 29:36 -7 22
D L D L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
Promotion
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