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10.10.2026 11:30
Home Park
Referee: Stephen Parkinson
Plymouth
Match Timeline
AFC Wimbledon
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
16'
J. Stockley · Assist: C. Maycock
AFC Wimbledon
🔄
17'
I. Ogundere ↔ F. Simmonds
AFC Wimbledon
⚽
25'
C. Watts
Plymouth
🔄
30'
J. Edwards ↔ M. Sorinola
Plymouth
🔄
65'
O. Irow ↔ X. Amaechi
Plymouth
🔄
76'
C. Maycock ↔ M. Browne
AFC Wimbledon
🔄
77'
C. Watts ↔ T. Bakinson
Plymouth
🔄
77'
O. Harrison ↔ Z. Nelson
AFC Wimbledon
🔄
78'
W. Harding ↔ A. Hartridge
Plymouth
🟨
90+6'
Matthew Sorinola
Plymouth
🔄
90+1'
A. Sasu ↔ S. Sessegnon
AFC Wimbledon
⚽
90'
X. Amaechi · Assist: A. Hartridge
Plymouth

Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Plymouth Win 68%
Draw 6.4%
AFC Wimbledon Win 25.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Plymouth1.56
AFC Wimbledon0.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
Plymouth Plymouth
W L W W W
12 GF / 5 GA
AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon
D D W W L
5 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.93
Average Goals Scored
0.92
0.87
Average Goals Conceded
1
6
BTTS Yes
4
7
Over 2.5
4
5.11
Shots on Goal
2.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Plymouth Plymouth 15 matches
AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 13 matches
Plymouth Statistic AFC Wimbledon
10 Wins 5
2 Draws 4
3 Losses 4
29 Goals For 12
13 Goals Against 13
1.93 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
0.87 Avg Goals Conceded 1
6 BTTS Yes 4
11 Over 1.5 7
7 Over 2.5 4
5 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 7
3 Failed To Score 5
5.11 Shots On Goal 2.63
15 Total Shots 10.5
5.67 Corners 5
42.9% Ball Possession 45.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Plymouth's more proactive style and AFC Wimbledon's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors AFC Wimbledon. Plymouth arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 16 points compared to AFC Wimbledon in 9 on 12, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Plymouth come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Plymouth expected to line up in 4-4-2 and AFC Wimbledon in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AFC Wimbledon having the stronger overall control.

Plymouth Analysis

Plymouth come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 16 points after 9 matches. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 16:11, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through A. Pepple (4 goals), W. Evans (3 goals), O. Irow (3 goals), with creative support from R. Curtis (2 assists), B. Ibrahim (2 assists), H. White (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

AFC Wimbledon Analysis

AFC Wimbledon are currently 9 in the standings with 12 points from 8 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 6:8 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Stockley (3 goals), M. Hippolyte (3 goals), with creative support from J. Tilley (2 assists), J. Stockley (1 assists), A. Yiadom (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Plymouth won 8 times, AFC Wimbledon won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:22 from Plymouth's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.7%)
Predicted formations: Plymouth 4-4-2 / AFC Wimbledon 5-4-1
H2H summary: Plymouth wins 8, draws 2, AFC Wimbledon wins 5

Standings

League One
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 8 5 1 28:12 16 29
D W W W W
2 14 8 2 4 26:14 12 26
W L D W W
3 13 7 5 1 22:11 11 26
W D W D W
4 14 7 3 4 27:21 6 24
D W W W W
5 14 7 2 5 21:19 2 23
D W L L W
6 14 6 4 4 25:15 10 22
L D W W L
7 13 6 4 3 10:8 2 22
L D D W D
8 14 5 6 3 21:21 0 21
L D L D W
9 13 5 5 3 22:14 8 20
D D L L W
10 13 5 4 4 22:19 3 19
D W L W W
11 13 5 4 4 20:18 2 19
D L W W D
12 13 4 6 3 22:20 2 18
W W W L W
13 13 4 6 3 21:23 -2 18
W D D W L
14 13 5 2 6 19:14 5 17
W L L W D
15 14 4 5 5 18:21 -3 17
L W D D L
16 12 4 4 4 17:13 4 16
D L W L W
17 12 3 5 4 13:14 -1 14
W D W L L
18 13 3 4 6 9:21 -12 13
L D L L L
19 12 3 3 6 17:21 -4 12
D L W L L
20 13 3 3 7 14:22 -8 12
L L W L L
21 14 3 2 9 11:22 -11 11
D W L L L
22 13 2 4 7 11:23 -12 10
L D L D W
23 12 2 3 7 12:22 -10 9
D L L L L
24 13 2 3 8 13:33 -20 9
L L D L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two