15.09.2026 22:00
Estadio Ciudad de Vicente Lopez
Referee: C. Garay
Platense
Match Timeline
Fluminense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Julian Millan
Fluminense
🟨
13'
Ignacio Vazquez
Platense
30'
Guido Mainero
Platense
45+2'
Bruno Christian Sepulveda · Assist: Guido Mainero
Platense
57'
Agustín Canobbio · Assist: Hulk
Fluminense
🟨
61'
Agustin Lagos
Platense
🟨
63'
Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima
Fluminense
🔄
72'
Yeferson Soteldo ↔ Kevin Serna
Fluminense
🔄
75'
Bautista Merlini ↔ Franco Zapiola Yamartino
Platense
🔄
79'
Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima ↔ Luciano Acosta
Fluminense
🔄
80'
Guido Mainero ↔ Juan Carlos Gauto
Platense
🔄
90+3'
Hércules Pereira do Nascimento ↔ Otávio Henrique Passos Santos
Fluminense
🔄
90+3'
Agustín Canobbio ↔ Guilherme Arana
Fluminense
🔄
90+3'
Hulk ↔ Rodrigo Castillo
Fluminense
🟨
90+5'
Juan Carlos Gauto
Platense

Platense vs Fluminense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 70.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.91
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
70.9%
-
BTTS Yes
67.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.91
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.47
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Platense Win 29.1%
Draw 30.4%
Fluminense Win 40.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Platense0.95
Fluminense1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Platense Platense
WWDLW
30 GF / 40 GA
Fluminense Fluminense
WLDWL
59 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
1.55
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
17
BTTS Yes
26
11
Over 2.5
18
3.74
Shots on Goal
5.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Platense Platense 37 matches
Fluminense Fluminense 38 matches
Platense Statistic Fluminense
9 Wins 17
15 Draws 13
13 Losses 8
30 Goals For 59
40 Goals Against 44
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
17 BTTS Yes 26
23 Over 1.5 31
11 Over 2.5 18
3 Over 3.5 10
11 Clean Sheets 9
16 Failed To Score 6
3.74 Shots On Goal 5.36
11.82 Total Shots 14.39
4.12 Corners 5.17
48.4% Ball Possession 59.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together Platense's more proactive style and Fluminense's more cautious structure, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Fluminense. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Platense Analysis

Platense come into this tie placed 2 in their league with 10 points from 6 matches. The return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 8:7 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Franco Zapiola (3 goals), Guido Mainero (1 goals), Agustín Lagos (1 goals), with creative support from Guido Mainero (2 assists), Franco Zapiola (1 assists), Tomás Ariel Silva (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Fluminense Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Fluminense arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 8 points after 6 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats with goals at 7:7 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on John Kennedy (2 goals), Jefferson Savarino (1 goals), A. Canobbio (1 goals), with creative support from Jefferson Savarino (1 assists), Martinelli (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (70.9%)
Predicted formations: Platense 4-2-3-1 / Fluminense 4-2-3-1

Standings

Group E
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 3 2 1 8:4 4 11
L D D W W
2 6 3 1 2 8:7 1 10
W L D W W
3 6 2 2 2 6:7 -1 8
W W D L L
4 6 0 3 3 4:8 -4 3
L D D L L
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals