POLAND › EKSTRAKLASA
17.05.2026 10:15
Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach
Referee: D. Stefanski
Piast Gliwice
Match Timeline
Raków Częstochowa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
1'
J. C. Silva
Raków Częstochowa
⚽
20'
M. Bulat
Raków Częstochowa
⚽
25'
T. Pienko · Assist: J. C. Silva
Raków Częstochowa
🟨
32'
Jason Lokilo
Piast Gliwice
🟨
38'
Oskar Lesniak
Piast Gliwice
🟨
39'
German Barkovskiy
Piast Gliwice
🔄
44'
O. Repka ↔ V. Kochergin
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
46'
F. Borowski ↔ E. Twumasi
Piast Gliwice
🔄
46'
Q. Boisgard ↔ J. Felix
Piast Gliwice
🟨
52'
Juande Rivas
Piast Gliwice
🟨
61'
Ariel Mosór
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
64'
G. Barkovskiy ↔ A. Katsantonis
Piast Gliwice
🔄
68'
J. Brunes ↔ L. Rocha
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
68'
T. Pienko ↔ Adriano
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
73'
J. Lokilo ↔ L. Sanca
Piast Gliwice
🔄
80'
O. Lesniak ↔ O. Maziarz
Piast Gliwice
🔄
81'
A. Mosor ↔ S. Svarnas
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
81'
P. Makuch ↔ I. Lopez
Raków Częstochowa
🟨
87'
Ema Twumasi
Piast Gliwice
⚽
89'
P. Dziczek · Assist: L. Sanca
Piast Gliwice
🟨
90+3'
Igor Drapiński
Piast Gliwice

Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Piast Gliwice Win 40.7%
Draw 13.9%
Raków Częstochowa Win 45.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Piast Gliwice1.17
Raków Częstochowa1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice
WWDLW
40 GF / 41 GA
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
WLDWL
67 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.46
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.04
18
BTTS Yes
24
16
Over 2.5
20
4.06
Shots on Goal
4.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 32 matches
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa 46 matches
Piast Gliwice Statistic Raków Częstochowa
11 Wins 23
8 Draws 9
13 Losses 14
40 Goals For 67
41 Goals Against 48
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.04
18 BTTS Yes 24
23 Over 1.5 33
16 Over 2.5 20
9 Over 3.5 11
8 Clean Sheets 16
10 Failed To Score 9
4.06 Shots On Goal 4.63
14.81 Total Shots 13.22
5.25 Corners 4.15
55.4% Ball Possession 50.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Raków Częstochowa's more proactive style and Piast Gliwice's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 49 points while Piast Gliwice sit 11 on 41, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Raków Częstochowa. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Piast Gliwice expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Raków Częstochowa in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Raków Częstochowa having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Piast Gliwice Analysis

Piast Gliwice sit 11 with 41 points after 32 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses, while the 40:41 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Jirka (6 goals), G. Barkovskiy (4 goals), J. Felix (4 goals), with creative support from J. Felix (3 assists), L. Sanca (3 assists), Patryk Dziczek (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Raków Częstochowa Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 49 points from 31 games, Raków Częstochowa bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 14 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, together with goals at 45:37, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. Brunes (15 goals), L. Rocha (10 goals), L. Diaby-Fadiga (7 goals), with creative support from M. Ameyaw (5 assists), L. Diaby-Fadiga (4 assists), Oskar Repka (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 7 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Piast Gliwice won 4 times, Raków Częstochowa won 10 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:22 from Piast Gliwice's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.1%)
Predicted formations: Piast Gliwice 4-4-2 / Raków Częstochowa 3-4-3
H2H summary: Piast Gliwice wins 4, draws 1, Raków Częstochowa wins 10

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation