🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
26.09.2026 23:30
Subaru Park

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.2%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Philadelphia Union Win 56.2%
Draw 10.8%
Orlando City SC Win 33%
Expected Goals (xG)
Philadelphia Union2.17
Orlando City SC1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WWDLW
72 GF / 51 GA
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WLDWL
53 GF / 70 GA
Key Stats
2.06
Average Goals Scored
1.77
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
2.33
21
BTTS Yes
21
22
Over 2.5
23
5.17
Shots on Goal
4.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 35 matches
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 30 matches
Philadelphia Union Statistic Orlando City SC
14 Wins 11
8 Draws 5
13 Losses 14
72 Goals For 53
51 Goals Against 70
2.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.77
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 2.33
21 BTTS Yes 21
29 Over 1.5 27
22 Over 2.5 23
15 Over 3.5 17
10 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 5
5.17 Shots On Goal 4.96
16 Total Shots 12.12
5.97 Corners 4.04
48.3% Ball Possession 49.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Philadelphia Union's more proactive style and Orlando City SC's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Orlando City SC. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

So far, Philadelphia Union have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 33 points from 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, while the 46:39 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Iloski (10 goals), B. Damiani (7 goals), Cavan Sullivan (5 goals), with creative support from Cavan Sullivan (4 assists), F. Westfield (4 assists), I. Vassilev (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Orlando City SC Analysis

So far, Orlando City SC have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 34 points from 25 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 44:56 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Ojeda (9 goals), A. Griezmann (6 goals), I. Angulo (3 goals), with creative support from Justin Ellis (7 assists), E. Atuesta (3 assists), Adrián Marín (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Philadelphia Union won 5 times, Orlando City SC won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 30:25 from Philadelphia Union's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 13 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.2%)
Predicted formations: Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 / Orlando City SC 4-4-2
H2H summary: Philadelphia Union wins 5, draws 4, Orlando City SC wins 6

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)