🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
02.05.2026 23:30
Subaru Park
Referee: E. Arreguin
Philadelphia Union
Match Timeline
Nashville SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
15'
J. Sery Larsen ↔ G. Martinez
Philadelphia Union
🔄
62'
J. Bauer ↔ A. Najar
Nashville SC
🔄
62'
S. Mohammed ↔ C. Espinoza
Nashville SC
🔄
62'
W. Pacius ↔ H. Mukhtar
Nashville SC
🟨
64'
Geiner Martínez
Philadelphia Union
🔄
69'
I. Vassilev ↔ B. Damiani
Philadelphia Union
🔄
69'
C. Sullivan ↔ A. Anello
Philadelphia Union
🔄
86'
B. Acosta ↔ M. Corcoran
Nashville SC
🔄
86'
W. Madrigal ↔ J. Knight
Nashville SC
🟨
90+1'
Daniel Lovitz
Nashville SC

Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 96.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
96.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Philadelphia Union Win 3.1%
Draw 0%
Nashville SC Win 96.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Philadelphia Union1.24
Nashville SC1.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WWDLW
31 GF / 26 GA
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WLDWL
37 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.63
Average Goals Scored
1.85
1.37
Average Goals Conceded
0.65
10
BTTS Yes
8
11
Over 2.5
9
4.14
Shots on Goal
4.94

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 19 matches
Nashville SC Nashville SC 20 matches
Philadelphia Union Statistic Nashville SC
5 Wins 12
4 Draws 5
10 Losses 3
31 Goals For 37
26 Goals Against 13
1.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.85
1.37 Avg Goals Conceded 0.65
10 BTTS Yes 8
15 Over 1.5 12
11 Over 2.5 9
5 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 10
5 Failed To Score 5
4.14 Shots On Goal 4.94
13.79 Total Shots 12.13
6.21 Corners 4.5
50.4% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Nashville SC's more proactive style and Philadelphia Union's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Nashville SC. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Nashville SC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 22 points while Philadelphia Union sit 15 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Nashville SC look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

With 5 points from 10 games and a place of 15, Philadelphia Union still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 9:17, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Danley Jean Jacques (2 goals), M. Iloski (2 goals), A. Anello (1 goals), with creative support from A. Bedoya (2 assists), M. Iloski (1 assists), C. Sullivan (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nashville SC Analysis

Nashville SC come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 22 points after 9 matches. With 7 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 21:6, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by S. Surridge (9 goals), C. Espinoza (3 goals), H. Mukhtar (3 goals), with creative support from C. Espinoza (3 assists), H. Mukhtar (3 assists), P. Yazbek (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 / Nashville SC 4-4-2
Missing players: Philadelphia Union 2, Nashville SC 3

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 26 12 10 4 63:48 15 46
D D D D W
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)