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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
17.10.2026 18:30
Talen Energy Stadium
Referee: Jon Freemon
Philadelphia Union
Match Timeline
Charlotte
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Allan Saint-Maximin
Charlotte
⚽
24'
Milan Iloski
Philadelphia Union
🟨
44'
Morrison Agyemang
Charlotte
🟨
45+1'
David Schnegg
Charlotte
⚽
48'
Rodolfo Aloko · Assist: Idan Toklomati Jorno
Charlotte
🔄
55'
Indiana Vassilev ↔ Quinn Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
⚽
62'
Idan Toklomati Jorno · Assist: David Schnegg
Charlotte
⚽
73'
Bruno Damiani · Assist: Danley Jean Jacques
Philadelphia Union
🔄
82'
Bruno Damiani ↔ Malik Jakupovic
Philadelphia Union
🔄
83'
Allan Saint-Maximin ↔ Liel Abada
Charlotte
🔄
83'
Djibril Diani ↔ Luca De La Torre
Charlotte
🔄
83'
David Schnegg ↔ Harry Toffolo
Charlotte
🔄
90+12'
Rodolfo Aloko ↔ Tyger Smalls
Charlotte

Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 89.4%
Odds 1.17
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.29
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
89.4%
1.17 ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
1.44 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.29 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.20 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Philadelphia Union Win 48.8%
Draw 10.6%
Charlotte Win 40.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Philadelphia Union1.83
Charlotte1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WWDLW
81 GF / 55 GA
Charlotte Charlotte
WLDWL
57 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
2.13
Average Goals Scored
1.73
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
24
BTTS Yes
22
25
Over 2.5
22
5.33
Shots on Goal
4.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 38 matches
Charlotte Charlotte 33 matches
Philadelphia Union Statistic Charlotte
17 Wins 16
8 Draws 7
13 Losses 10
81 Goals For 57
55 Goals Against 46
2.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
24 BTTS Yes 22
32 Over 1.5 25
25 Over 2.5 22
17 Over 3.5 14
10 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 7
5.33 Shots On Goal 4.86
16.21 Total Shots 11.59
5.97 Corners 4.79
48.3% Ball Possession 46.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Charlotte. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Philadelphia Union expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Charlotte in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Charlotte having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Philadelphia Union come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

Philadelphia Union are currently 6 in the standings with 39 points from 27 matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 54:44 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Iloski (14 goals), B. Damiani (8 goals), Cavan Sullivan (6 goals), with creative support from I. Vassilev (5 assists), Frankie Westfield (5 assists), Cavan Sullivan (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Charlotte Analysis

Placed 5 with 43 points from 27 outings, Charlotte continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, while the 47:38 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Idan Toklomati (6 goals), Pep Biel (5 goals), Liel Abada (4 goals), with creative support from Pep Biel (4 assists), Kerwin Calderón Vargas (4 assists), A. Westwood (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Philadelphia Union won 4 times, Charlotte won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:13 from Philadelphia Union's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.4%)
Predicted formations: Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 / Charlotte 4-3-3
Missing players: Philadelphia Union 1, Charlotte 4
H2H summary: Philadelphia Union wins 4, draws 2, Charlotte wins 4

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 20 6 3 63:22 41 66
W W W W D
2 29 14 10 5 70:50 20 52
W W L D D
3 29 15 4 10 48:41 7 49
W L L W W
4 29 14 6 9 52:43 9 48
L W W W L
5 30 13 8 9 53:45 8 47
D L W L W
6 30 13 7 10 61:48 13 46
D W W W W
7 29 11 5 13 54:69 -15 38
D W L L W
8 29 10 6 13 39:54 -15 36
L W L W W
9 28 9 9 10 60:68 -8 36
L W L D D
10 29 8 9 12 42:40 2 33
L L D L W
11 29 7 12 10 44:55 -11 33
D W L L L
12 28 7 12 9 36:47 -11 33
W L D L D
13 29 9 5 15 44:47 -3 32
W L W W L
14 29 8 6 15 36:48 -12 30
W L D W D
15 29 6 6 17 35:59 -24 24
L L W L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)