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14.11.2026 15:00
Weston Homes Stadium

Peterborough vs Oxford United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 74.6%
Odds 1.50
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.57
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
74.6%
1.50 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.50 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.57 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Peterborough Win 25.4%
Draw 22.9%
Oxford United Win 51.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Peterborough0.99
Oxford United1.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
Peterborough Peterborough
L L D L D
4 GF / 14 GA
Oxford United Oxford United
W L W D W
8 GF / 2 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1.9
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
0.85
11
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
12
3.81
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Peterborough Peterborough 22 matches
Oxford United Oxford United 20 matches
Peterborough Statistic Oxford United
7 Wins 12
5 Draws 6
10 Losses 2
24 Goals For 38
36 Goals Against 17
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.9
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 0.85
11 BTTS Yes 12
17 Over 1.5 17
11 Over 2.5 12
8 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 7
10 Failed To Score 2
3.81 Shots On Goal 5
15.44 Total Shots 15.06
5.81 Corners 6.31
56.1% Ball Possession 57.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Oxford United's more proactive style and Peterborough's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Oxford United. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Oxford United carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 26 points while Peterborough sit 22 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Peterborough Analysis

Peterborough approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 22 with 10 points from 13 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 11:23, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through H. Leonard (3 goals), O. Edwards (2 goals), B. Woods (2 goals), with creative support from H. Leonard (1 assists), O. Edwards (1 assists), Harley Mills (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Oxford United Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 26 points from 13 games, Oxford United bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 22:11, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Harris (5 goals), G. O'Donkor (3 goals), S. Dembélé (2 goals), with creative support from S. Dembélé (4 assists), Kai Andrews (2 assists), L. Lynch (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Peterborough won 5 times, Oxford United won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:15 from Peterborough's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.21 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.1%)
Predicted formations: Peterborough 4-2-3-1 / Oxford United 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Peterborough wins 5, draws 4, Oxford United wins 5

Standings

League One
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 8 5 1 28:12 16 29
D W W W W
2 14 8 2 4 26:14 12 26
W L D W W
3 13 7 5 1 22:11 11 26
W D W D W
4 14 7 3 4 27:21 6 24
D W W W W
5 14 7 2 5 21:19 2 23
D W L L W
6 14 6 4 4 25:15 10 22
L D W W L
7 13 6 4 3 10:8 2 22
L D D W D
8 14 5 6 3 21:21 0 21
L D L D W
9 13 5 5 3 22:14 8 20
D D L L W
10 13 5 4 4 22:19 3 19
D W L W W
11 13 5 4 4 20:18 2 19
D L W W D
12 13 4 6 3 22:20 2 18
W W W L W
13 13 4 6 3 21:23 -2 18
W D D W L
14 13 5 2 6 19:14 5 17
W L L W D
15 14 4 5 5 18:21 -3 17
L W D D L
16 12 4 4 4 17:13 4 16
D L W L W
17 12 3 5 4 13:14 -1 14
W D W L L
18 13 3 4 6 9:21 -12 13
L D L L L
19 12 3 3 6 17:21 -4 12
D L W L L
20 13 3 3 7 14:22 -8 12
L L W L L
21 14 3 2 9 11:22 -11 11
D W L L L
22 13 2 4 7 11:23 -12 10
L D L D W
23 12 2 3 7 12:22 -10 9
D L L L L
24 13 2 3 8 13:33 -20 9
L L D L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two