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26.10.2026 12:00
Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium
Referee: E. Saputra
Persebaya Surabaya
Match Timeline
Persepam Madura Utd
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
22'
M. Pereira · Assist: Gledson
Persebaya Surabaya
🔄
61'
J. Santacruz ↔ Iran Junior
Persepam Madura Utd
🔄
62'
Ilhamsyah ↔ P. Sitanggang
Persepam Madura Utd
🟨
63'
T. Hidayat
Persepam Madura Utd
🟥
65'
P. Sitanggang
Persepam Madura Utd
🔄
66'
A. Catur ↔ S. Lasinari
Persebaya Surabaya
🟨
68'
Walber
Persebaya Surabaya
⚽
70'
Freitas Gali
Persepam Madura Utd
🔄
74'
Gledson ↔ Y. Mabella
Persebaya Surabaya
🔄
74'
S. Ramdani ↔ R. Pratama
Persebaya Surabaya
🔄
78'
Lulinha ↔ A. Rusadi
Persepam Madura Utd
🔄
81'
Freitas Gali ↔ Balotelli
Persepam Madura Utd
🟨
83'
Iran Junior
Persepam Madura Utd
🟨
90'
P. Monteiro
Persepam Madura Utd
🔄
90+4'
F. Rivera ↔ R. Mitrevski
Persebaya Surabaya
🔄
90+4'
T. Firmansyah ↔ S. Putra
Persebaya Surabaya
⚽
90'
Y. Fernandes
Persebaya Surabaya
⚽
90'
Y. Mabella · Assist: M. Pereira
Persebaya Surabaya

Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Persebaya Surabaya Win 56.5%
Draw 5.2%
Persepam Madura Utd Win 38.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Persebaya Surabaya1.15
Persepam Madura Utd1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya
L D W D W
5 GF / 4 GA
Persepam Madura Utd Persepam Madura Utd
W D L W W
9 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.83
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
4
BTTS Yes
3
2
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 7 matches
Persepam Madura Utd Persepam Madura Utd 6 matches
Persebaya Surabaya Statistic Persepam Madura Utd
2 Wins 4
4 Draws 1
1 Losses 1
8 Goals For 11
7 Goals Against 7
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.83
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
4 BTTS Yes 3
4 Over 1.5 5
2 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Persepam Madura Utd. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Persepam Madura Utd having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Persebaya Surabaya Analysis

Persebaya Surabaya are currently 7 in the standings with 9 points from 5 matches. The record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 6:4 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Persepam Madura Utd Analysis

Persepam Madura Utd approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 10 points after 5 outings. With 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 10:7, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Persebaya Surabaya won 7 times, Persepam Madura Utd won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:15 from Persebaya Surabaya's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.54 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
H2H summary: Persebaya Surabaya wins 7, draws 3, Persepam Madura Utd wins 3

Standings

Liga 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 0 2 19:8 11 21
W L W W L
2 9 6 2 1 16:12 4 20
W W L W D
3 9 6 1 2 26:9 17 19
W W D W L
4 9 6 1 2 16:10 6 19
W W L W D
5 9 5 1 3 16:10 6 16
L W W L W
6 8 4 3 1 17:11 6 15
L W D W W
7 9 4 3 2 14:11 3 13
W W D D W
8 9 3 4 2 10:8 2 13
L D W L D
9 9 2 6 1 12:11 1 12
D L D W D
10 9 3 2 4 12:16 -4 11
W W L L W
11 8 3 1 4 8:10 -2 10
D L W L W
12 9 2 4 3 10:14 -4 10
D L D W W
13 9 3 1 5 9:14 -5 10
L L L W L
14 9 2 3 4 17:20 -3 9
L L W L L
15 9 2 2 5 4:16 -12 6
W L D D W
16 9 1 2 6 12:17 -5 5
D L L L D
17 9 1 2 6 6:14 -8 5
L W D L L
18 9 0 2 7 5:18 -13 2
L D D L L