01.06.2026 23:00
Referee: H. Heras
Penarol
Match Timeline
Central Espanol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
40'
D. Laxalt
Penarol
🔄
46'
D. Laxalt ↔ J. Cabrera
Penarol
🔄
46'
G. Togni ↔ A. Hernandez
Penarol
🟨
47'
M. Aguilera
Central Espanol
🟨
53'
Cesar Nunes
Central Espanol
🔄
54'
F. Camarda ↔ L. Pino
Central Espanol
🔄
56'
Lucas Hernandez ↔ E. Remedi
Penarol
🔄
58'
L. Fernandez ↔ S. Navarro
Central Espanol
🔄
70'
↔ E. Aramburu
Central Espanol
🔄
70'
F. Munoz ↔ S. Sanchez
Central Espanol
🔄
70'
S. Sequeira ↔ D. Vera
Central Espanol
🔄
77'
E. Gularte ↔ F. Gonzalez
Penarol
🔄
77'
M. Arezo ↔ F. Batista
Penarol
🟥
90+1'
M. Arezo
Penarol
🟥
90+3'
L. Ferreira
Penarol
🟨
90+4'
E. Remedi
Penarol
🟨
90+4'
E. Remedi
Penarol
🟥
90+4'
E. Remedi
Penarol
🟨
90+12'
W. Aguerre
Penarol
90'
L. Pino
Central Espanol

Penarol vs Central Espanol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 73.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 68.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
73.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
68.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Penarol Win 42.4%
Draw 30.7%
Central Espanol Win 27%
Expected Goals (xG)
Penarol1.37
Central Espanol1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Penarol Penarol
WWDLW
31 GF / 25 GA
Central Espanol Central Espanol
WLDWL
25 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.47
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.41
14
BTTS Yes
10
9
Over 2.5
11
4
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Penarol Penarol 23 matches
Central Espanol Central Espanol 17 matches
Penarol Statistic Central Espanol
10 Wins 8
6 Draws 3
7 Losses 6
31 Goals For 25
25 Goals Against 24
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41
14 BTTS Yes 10
19 Over 1.5 12
9 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 3
4 Shots On Goal 0
13.33 Total Shots 0
4 Corners 0
42.8% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Central Espanol having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Central Espanol. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Penarol Analysis

Placed 4 with 27 points from 15 outings, Penarol continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, while the 23:16 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Arezo (7 goals), L. Angulo (4 goals), Leandro Umpierrez (3 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Central Espanol Analysis

Central Espanol come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 24 points from 15 matches. The record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 23:22 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through R. Tarragona (6 goals), F. Munoz (3 goals), I. Rodriguez (3 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Penarol won 3 times, Central Espanol won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:5 from Penarol's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (73.1%)
Predicted formations: Penarol 4-1-4-1 / Central Espanol -
H2H summary: Penarol wins 3, draws 1, Central Espanol wins 2

Standings

Primera: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D W D W
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
W W L D W
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
W W W W W
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D L D L
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
W L W L D
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W D W D L
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
W L L W L
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D W D W
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
L W D L W
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W L W L L
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L L W D D
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
L W L L D
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L W L W L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W W D D W
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
L L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
L L L D D
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)