12.09.2026 21:00

Paysandu vs La Luz Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.3%
Odds 2.50
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.03
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.38
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.3%
2.50
BTTS Yes
62.8%
2.03
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.38
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.30
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Paysandu Win 56.3%
Draw 11.7%
La Luz Win 32.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paysandu1.15
La Luz0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paysandu Paysandu
WWDLW
27 GF / 30 GA
La Luz La Luz
WLDWL
18 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
0.78
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
12
BTTS Yes
8
11
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paysandu Paysandu 23 matches
La Luz La Luz 23 matches
Paysandu Statistic La Luz
8 Wins 5
3 Draws 10
12 Losses 8
27 Goals For 18
30 Goals Against 26
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 0.78
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
12 BTTS Yes 8
15 Over 1.5 14
11 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 11
8 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward La Luz. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward La Luz having the stronger overall control. Paysandu have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Paysandu Analysis

Paysandu approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 4 points from 6 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 4:7, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

La Luz Analysis

So far, La Luz have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 7 points from 6 matches. The record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 5:6 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.3%)

Standings

1st Phase
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 1 1 8:5 3 13
L W W W D
2 6 3 3 0 9:2 7 12
W D D W W
3 6 3 2 1 13:7 6 11
W L W W D
4 6 2 4 0 9:6 3 10
D W W D D
5 6 2 3 1 8:5 3 9
D W D L D
6 6 2 3 1 7:5 2 9
D W L W D
7 6 2 3 1 6:5 1 9
D L W W D
8 6 2 3 1 8:8 0 9
D D L W D
9 6 1 4 1 5:6 -1 7
D L W D D
10 6 1 2 3 3:7 -4 5
D D L W L
11 6 1 1 4 4:7 -3 4
L D L L W
12 6 1 1 4 5:11 -6 4
L W L L L
13 6 1 1 4 6:13 -7 4
W L L L D
14 6 0 3 3 5:9 -4 3
D L L L D