FRANCE LIGUE 2
18.09.2026 18:00
Nouste Camp

PAU vs Dunkerque Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 74.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
74.9%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
PAU Win 36%
Draw 38.9%
Dunkerque Win 25.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
PAU1.02
Dunkerque1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
PAU PAU
WWDLW
9 GF / 16 GA
Dunkerque Dunkerque
WLDWL
18 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
3
BTTS Yes
7
5
Over 2.5
6
3
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

PAU PAU 11 matches
Dunkerque Dunkerque 12 matches
PAU Statistic Dunkerque
3 Wins 5
2 Draws 3
6 Losses 4
9 Goals For 18
16 Goals Against 16
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
3 BTTS Yes 7
6 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 4
3 Shots On Goal 4
13.5 Total Shots 12.83
4.5 Corners 5.17
45.8% Ball Possession 49.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with PAU expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Dunkerque in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dunkerque having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Dunkerque. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

PAU Analysis

PAU are currently 12 in the standings with 5 points from 5 matches. Their overall return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 4:5 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Babacar Leye (3 goals), L. Rajot (1 goals), with creative support from L. Rajot (1 assists), J. Benet (1 assists), A. Briançon (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dunkerque Analysis

From their first 5 matches, Dunkerque have collected 5 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 8:9 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Prutsev (2 goals), T. Robinet (1 goals), Marco Decherf (1 goals), with creative support from T. Robinet (2 assists), Marco Decherf (2 assists), E. Prutsev (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, PAU won 3 times, Dunkerque won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:23 from PAU's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (74.9%)
Predicted formations: PAU 5-3-2 / Dunkerque 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: PAU wins 3, draws 5, Dunkerque wins 7

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 0 1 17:6 11 15
L W W W W
2 6 3 3 0 14:8 6 12
W D W W D
3 6 3 2 1 5:4 1 11
W L D W W
4 6 3 1 2 8:7 1 10
L W D L W
5 5 2 3 0 8:4 4 9
W D D D W
6 6 2 3 1 3:4 -1 9
W D D W D
7 6 2 2 2 10:10 0 8
W D L L D
8 6 2 2 2 9:9 0 8
W D D L W
9 5 2 2 1 5:6 -1 8
W L D D W
10 6 2 1 3 4:4 0 7
L L W W L
11 6 2 1 3 11:12 -1 7
L L D W L
12 6 2 1 3 7:10 -3 7
W L W L D
13 6 1 3 2 8:9 -1 6
W D L D L
14 6 0 5 1 2:3 -1 5
D D D D L
15
PAU Home
6 1 2 3 4:6 -2 5
L D D L W
16 6 0 5 1 3:5 -2 5
D D D D L
17 6 1 1 4 7:12 -5 4
L W D L L
18 6 1 1 4 7:13 -6 4
L L L D W
Promotion - Ligue 1
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Final)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3