COLOMBIA PRIMERA B
18.09.2026 23:05
Estadio La Independencia

Patriotas vs Union Magdalena Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.9%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Patriotas Win 61.9%
Draw 4.4%
Union Magdalena Win 33.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Patriotas1.12
Union Magdalena1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Patriotas Patriotas
WWDLW
28 GF / 27 GA
Union Magdalena Union Magdalena
WLDWL
39 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
1.34
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
12
BTTS Yes
15
9
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Patriotas Patriotas 23 matches
Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 29 matches
Patriotas Statistic Union Magdalena
9 Wins 13
7 Draws 7
7 Losses 9
28 Goals For 39
27 Goals Against 28
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 1.34
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
12 BTTS Yes 15
16 Over 1.5 22
9 Over 2.5 12
6 Over 3.5 5
8 Clean Sheets 9
5 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Union Magdalena's more proactive style and Patriotas's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Union Magdalena. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Union Magdalena having the stronger overall control. Union Magdalena arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Patriotas Analysis

From their first 21 matches, Patriotas have collected 28 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 23:25 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Union Magdalena Analysis

Union Magdalena approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 45 points from 27 matches. The overall return of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats with a 37:25 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Patriotas won 2 times, Union Magdalena won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:8 from Patriotas's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
H2H summary: Patriotas wins 2, draws 1, Union Magdalena wins 2

Standings

Primera B: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 15 8 8 50:35 15 53
L W L W W
2 29 15 8 6 38:27 11 53
W L L L W
3 29 14 9 6 30:18 12 51
L D D W W
4 30 14 8 8 40:28 12 50
D D L L L
5 28 13 6 9 38:27 11 45
L L W L L
6 29 10 8 11 27:25 2 38
D W L W W
7 23 9 9 5 23:16 7 36
W D W W L
8 23 9 7 7 28:27 1 34
W W W L W
9 29 9 7 13 35:39 -4 34
L L W W L
10 29 8 10 11 23:30 -7 34
D L L W L
11 23 6 9 8 27:27 0 27
W W W L D
12 22 6 7 9 17:23 -6 25
L L L W D
13 23 5 8 10 24:32 -8 23
W W W W L
14 22 4 9 9 23:29 -6 21
W D L L L
15 23 4 7 12 14:37 -23 19
D L L L D
16 23 3 8 12 20:37 -17 17
L D W W D
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)