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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA B
24.10.2026 20:30
Estadio La Independencia

Patriotas vs Envigado Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 91.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
91.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Patriotas Win 47.1%
Draw 8.7%
Envigado Win 44.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Patriotas1.01
Envigado1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Patriotas Patriotas
WWDLW
30 GF / 35 GA
Envigado Envigado
WLDWL
50 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.35
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
14
BTTS Yes
20
11
Over 2.5
16
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Patriotas Patriotas 28 matches
Envigado Envigado 37 matches
Patriotas Statistic Envigado
9 Wins 16
8 Draws 13
11 Losses 8
30 Goals For 50
35 Goals Against 34
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
14 BTTS Yes 20
18 Over 1.5 26
11 Over 2.5 16
7 Over 3.5 5
9 Clean Sheets 15
8 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Envigado's more proactive style and Patriotas's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Envigado having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Envigado carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 58 points while Patriotas sit 11 on 35, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Envigado. Patriotas have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Patriotas Analysis

Patriotas sit 11 with 35 points after 28 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 30:35, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Envigado Analysis

Envigado come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 58 points from 36 matches. Their overall return of 15 wins, 13 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 48:33 reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Patriotas won 4 times, Envigado won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:13 from Patriotas's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.4%)
H2H summary: Patriotas wins 4, draws 5, Envigado wins 6

Standings

Primera B: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 17 10 7 42:30 12 61
D D L W W
2 36 15 13 8 48:33 15 58
D D D D W
3 34 16 10 8 35:26 9 58
D L W W L
4 36 15 12 9 56:42 14 57
D D L D D
5 34 15 10 9 48:34 14 55
D D D W D
6 34 12 11 11 35:29 6 47
D D W D W
7 28 11 11 6 30:22 8 44
D D W W L
8 34 9 13 12 28:35 -7 40
D D D L W
9 34 10 9 15 43:46 -3 39
D W D L L
10 28 9 10 9 33:30 3 37
D L W W W
11 28 9 8 11 30:35 -5 35
L D L L L
12 28 7 10 11 33:36 -3 31
L L D W W
13 28 7 10 11 22:29 -7 31
D W L D L
14 28 6 9 13 28:42 -14 27
W D L L L
15 28 5 9 14 19:43 -24 24
W D D L L
16 28 4 11 13 24:42 -18 23
D W L D D
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)