BRAZIL SERIE D
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.3%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Parnahyba Win 42.3%
Draw 15.7%
Águia de Marabá Win 42%
Expected Goals (xG)
Parnahyba1.1
Águia de Marabá1.72
Recent Form (Last 5)
Parnahyba Parnahyba
WWDLW
11 GF / 13 GA
Águia de Marabá Águia de Marabá
WLDWL
20 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
2
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
5
BTTS Yes
7
4
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Parnahyba Parnahyba 10 matches
Águia de Marabá Águia de Marabá 10 matches
Parnahyba Statistic Águia de Marabá
4 Wins 5
2 Draws 3
4 Losses 2
11 Goals For 20
13 Goals Against 11
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
5 BTTS Yes 7
6 Over 1.5 10
4 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between Águia de Marabá's more proactive style and Parnahyba's more cautious structure, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Águia de Marabá. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Águia de Marabá having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Parnahyba Analysis

Parnahyba enter this tie with a season profile built on 14 points from 10 matches, placing them 3 in their league. With 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses plus a goal ratio of 11:13, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Cremosinho (3 goals), Junior Barbosa (3 goals), Jeffinho (2 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. At home, the return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Águia de Marabá Analysis

Águia de Marabá enter this tie with a season profile built on 18 points from 10 matches, placing them 2 in their league. With 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses plus a goal ratio of 20:11, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on A. Silva (7 goals), Felipe Para (4 goals), Dede (2 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.3%)
Last matches: Parnahyba
07.06.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Moto Club
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Iguatu
2
2
D
24.05.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Maracanã
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Sampaio Correa
1
4
L
09.05.26
Ser
Parnahyba
IAPE
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Parnahyba
IAPE
3
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Sampaio Correa
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Maracanã
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Iguatu
0
2
L
05.04.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Moto Club
1
1
D
26.07.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Imperatriz
2
3
L
20.07.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Sampaio Correa
2
2
D
12.07.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Altos
2
4
L
06.07.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Iguatu
2
0
W
29.06.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Maracanã
1
2
L
15.06.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Maranhão
2
2
D
07.06.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Tocantinópolis
0
0
D
01.06.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Tocantinópolis
1
0
W
24.05.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Maranhão
1
1
D
18.05.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Maracanã
3
2
W
Last matches: Águia de Marabá
06.06.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
0
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Imperatriz
3
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Oratório
5
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Oratório
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
2
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Imperatriz
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
1
1
D
27.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
GAS
1
1
D
19.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Independência
4
1
W
13.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Manaus FC
3
3
D
05.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Manauara
0
1
L
29.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
0
2
L
14.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
1
2
L
07.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Humaitá
6
0
W
01.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Humaitá
3
1
W
24.05.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
0
2
L
17.05.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
0
0
D
Last matches: Parnahyba
07.06.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Moto Club
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Maracanã
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Parnahyba
IAPE
3
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Sampaio Correa
1
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Parnahyba
Iguatu
0
2
L
20.07.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Sampaio Correa
2
2
D
06.07.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Iguatu
2
0
W
15.06.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Maranhão
2
2
D
01.06.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Tocantinópolis
1
0
W
18.05.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Maracanã
3
2
W
04.05.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Altos
0
2
L
20.04.25
Ser
Parnahyba
Imperatriz
0
0
D
Last matches: Águia de Marabá
06.06.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
0
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Imperatriz
3
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Oratório
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tocantinópolis
2
2
D
27.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
GAS
1
1
D
13.07.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Manaus FC
3
3
D
29.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Tuna Luso
0
2
L
14.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Trem
1
2
L
01.06.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Humaitá
3
1
W
11.05.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Manauara
0
0
D
27.04.25
Ser
Águia de Marabá
Independência
2
0
W

Standings

Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)