ITALY › SERIE A
24.05.2026 13:00
Stadio Ennio Tardini
Referee: N. Turrini
Parma
Match Timeline
Sassuolo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Sascha Britschgi
Parma
🟨
18'
Kristian Thorstvedt
Sassuolo
🟨
21'
Tommaso Macchioni
Sassuolo
🟨
30'
Lautaro Valenti
Parma
🔄
46'
D. Mikolajewski ↔ A. Cardinali
Parma
🔄
54'
J. Idzes ↔ Pedro Felipe
Sassuolo
🔄
61'
L. Valenti ↔ A. Ndiaye
Parma
🔄
65'
I. Kone ↔ N. Matic
Sassuolo
🔄
66'
A. Lauriente ↔ M. Nzola
Sassuolo
🔄
72'
S. Britschgi ↔ P. Almqvist
Parma
🔄
72'
M. Keita ↔ O. Sorensen
Parma
🔄
76'
E. Valeri ↔ F. Carboni
Parma
⚽
80'
M. Pellegrino · Assist: P. Almqvist
Parma
🔄
83'
S. Turati ↔ G. Zacchi
Sassuolo
🔄
83'
L. Lipani ↔ C. Volpato
Sassuolo

Parma vs Sassuolo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Parma Win 50.9%
Draw 9.1%
Sassuolo Win 40%
Expected Goals (xG)
Parma1.01
Sassuolo1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Parma Parma
WWDLW
32 GF / 50 GA
Sassuolo Sassuolo
WLDWL
47 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
0.8
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
17
BTTS Yes
20
13
Over 2.5
22
3
Shots on Goal
3.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Parma Parma 40 matches
Sassuolo Sassuolo 39 matches
Parma Statistic Sassuolo
11 Wins 15
13 Draws 7
16 Losses 17
32 Goals For 47
50 Goals Against 52
0.8 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
17 BTTS Yes 20
25 Over 1.5 29
13 Over 2.5 22
7 Over 3.5 8
13 Clean Sheets 9
16 Failed To Score 12
3 Shots On Goal 3.82
10.75 Total Shots 10.97
3.93 Corners 3.97
43.7% Ball Possession 45.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sassuolo. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Parma expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Sassuolo in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sassuolo having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Parma have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Parma Analysis

Parma sit 13 with 42 points after 37 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 10 wins, 12 draws, and 15 defeats with a 27:46 goal balance points toward mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Pellegrino (8 goals), A. Bernabe (3 goals), Enrico Del Prato (2 goals), with creative support from G. Strefezza (2 assists), A. Benedyczak (2 assists), E. Valeri (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sassuolo Analysis

Sassuolo sit 11 with 49 points after 37 league matches. Their overall return of 14 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses with goals at 46:49 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Pinamonti (9 goals), Domenico Berardi (8 goals), A. Lauriente (7 goals), with creative support from A. Lauriente (9 assists), Domenico Berardi (4 assists), Kristian Thorstvedt (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Parma won 7 times, Sassuolo won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:17 from Parma's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.9%)
Predicted formations: Parma 3-5-2 / Sassuolo 4-3-3
Missing players: Parma 8, Sassuolo 9
H2H summary: Parma wins 7, draws 4, Sassuolo wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13
Parma Home
38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B