ITALY SERIE A
25.04.2026 13:00
Stadio Ennio Tardini
Referee: A. Calzavara
Parma
Match Timeline
Pisa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Simone Canestrelli
Pisa
🟨
44'
Isak Vural
Pisa
🔄
46'
I. Vural ↔ G. Piccinini
Pisa
🔄
65'
M. Keita ↔ C. Ordonez
Parma
🔄
65'
M. Leris ↔ I. Toure
Pisa
🔄
66'
G. Strefezza ↔ N. Elphege
Parma
🔄
66'
F. Stojilkovic ↔ H. Meister
Pisa
🔄
78'
H. Nicolussi Caviglia ↔ N. Estevez
Parma
🔄
78'
A. Bernabe ↔ O. Sorensen
Parma
🔄
80'
E. Akinsanmiro ↔ J. Cuadrado
Pisa
🔄
80'
R. Bozhinov ↔ Lorran
Pisa
🔄
81'
E. Delprato ↔ P. Almqvist
Parma
82'
N. Elphege · Assist: O. Sorensen
Parma
🟨
89'
Abdoulaye Ndiaye
Parma

Parma vs Pisa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 62.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
62.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.4%
-
Probability Distribution
Parma Win 100%
Draw 0%
Pisa Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Parma1.18
Pisa0.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
Parma Parma
WWDLW
29 GF / 44 GA
Pisa Pisa
WLDWL
24 GF / 61 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
0.69
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.74
16
BTTS Yes
14
12
Over 2.5
16
3.06
Shots on Goal
2.69

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Parma Parma 36 matches
Pisa Pisa 35 matches
Parma Statistic Pisa
10 Wins 2
13 Draws 13
13 Losses 20
29 Goals For 24
44 Goals Against 61
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 0.69
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.74
16 BTTS Yes 14
23 Over 1.5 21
12 Over 2.5 16
6 Over 3.5 12
12 Clean Sheets 6
14 Failed To Score 20
3.06 Shots On Goal 2.69
11.06 Total Shots 9.49
3.94 Corners 3.57
44.1% Ball Possession 40.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Pisa seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Parma arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 14 with 39 points compared to Pisa in 20 on 18, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Pisa. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Parma expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Pisa in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Pisa having the stronger overall control. Pisa arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Parma Analysis

Parma sit 14 with 39 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 9 wins, 12 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 23:40, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Pellegrino (8 goals), A. Bernabe (3 goals), Enrico Del Prato (2 goals), with creative support from A. Benedyczak (2 assists), G. Strefezza (2 assists), E. Valeri (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with B. Cremaschi, M. Frigan unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Pisa Analysis

Pisa approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 18 points from 33 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 12 draws, and 19 defeats with a 23:58 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Moreo (6 goals), M. Nzola (4 goals), Antonio Caracciolo (3 goals), with creative support from M. Leris (3 assists), Matteo Tramoni (2 assists), S. Angori (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with D. Denoon, M. Marin, M. Tramoni unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Parma won 4 times, Pisa won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:6 from Parma's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.56 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
Predicted formations: Parma 3-5-2 / Pisa 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Parma 2, Pisa 4
H2H summary: Parma wins 4, draws 3, Pisa wins 2

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13
Parma Home
38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20
Pisa Away
38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B