FRANCE › LIGUE 1
10.05.2026 19:00
Parc des Princes
Referee: J. Brisard
Paris Saint Germain
Match Timeline
Stade Brestois 29
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
53'
Lee Kang-In ↔ D. Doue
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
61'
G. Ramos ↔ O. Dembele
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
61'
F. Ruiz ↔ K. Kvaratskhelia
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
67'
K. Doumbia ↔ R. Labeau Lascary
Stade Brestois 29
🔄
69'
B. Barcola ↔ J. Neves
Paris Saint Germain
⚽
82'
D. Doue · Assist: L. Hernandez
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
87'
R. Del Castillo ↔ M. Balde
Stade Brestois 29
🔄
88'
L. Tousart ↔ H. Makalou
Stade Brestois 29

Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 89%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 93.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
89%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
93.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Paris Saint Germain Win 89%
Draw 0%
Stade Brestois 29 Win 11%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paris Saint Germain2.09
Stade Brestois 291.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
WWDLW
120 GF / 52 GA
Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29
WLDWL
42 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
2.4
Average Goals Scored
1.31
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.63
25
BTTS Yes
15
33
Over 2.5
16
6.98
Shots on Goal
3.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 50 matches
Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 32 matches
Paris Saint Germain Statistic Stade Brestois 29
33 Wins 10
9 Draws 9
8 Losses 13
120 Goals For 42
52 Goals Against 52
2.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.63
25 BTTS Yes 15
41 Over 1.5 27
33 Over 2.5 16
20 Over 3.5 10
22 Clean Sheets 9
4 Failed To Score 10
6.98 Shots On Goal 3.44
18.18 Total Shots 10.94
6.16 Corners 3.84
67.5% Ball Possession 43.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Paris Saint Germain's more proactive style and Stade Brestois 29's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Stade Brestois 29 arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Paris Saint Germain arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 70 points compared to Stade Brestois 29 in 12 on 38, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Paris Saint Germain expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Stade Brestois 29 in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Stade Brestois 29 having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Stade Brestois 29.

Paris Saint Germain Analysis

Paris Saint Germain come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 70 points after 31 matches. They have recorded 22 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a 70:27 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on B. Barcola (10 goals), O. Dembele (10 goals), K. Kvaratskhelia (7 goals), with creative support from Vitinha (7 assists), O. Dembele (6 assists), N. Mendes (5 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 12 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Stade Brestois 29 Analysis

With 38 points from 31 games and a place of 12, Stade Brestois 29 still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 13 defeats with a 41:51 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on R. Del Castillo (8 goals), Ludovic Ajorque (7 goals), J. Dina Ebimbe (5 goals), with creative support from Ludovic Ajorque (9 assists), R. Del Castillo (3 assists), Kamory Doumbia (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Paris Saint Germain won 14 times, Stade Brestois 29 won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 44:11 from Paris Saint Germain's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3 / Stade Brestois 29 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Paris Saint Germain 6, Stade Brestois 29 3
H2H summary: Paris Saint Germain wins 14, draws 1, Stade Brestois 29 wins 0

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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