GREECE › SUPER LEAGUE 1
13.05.2026 16:30
Toumba Stadium
Referee: S. Jablonski
PAOK
Match Timeline
AEK Athens FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
10'
Aboubakary Koita
AEK Athens FC
🔄
46'
J. Kenny ↔ J. Sanchez
PAOK
🔄
46'
B. Varga ↔ R. Ljubicic
AEK Athens FC
🟨
48'
Rahman Baba
PAOK
🔄
63'
A. Koita ↔ L. Jovic
AEK Athens FC
🔄
72'
Joao Mario ↔ D. Kutesa
AEK Athens FC
⚽
73'
L. Jovic · Assist: D. Kutesa
AEK Athens FC
🔄
74'
S. Meite ↔ A. Bianco
PAOK
🔄
74'
A. Jeremejeff ↔ A. Mythou
PAOK
🟨
77'
Alessandro Bianco
PAOK
🔄
82'
Taison ↔ D. Pelkas
PAOK
🔄
83'
Zini ↔ P. Mantalos
AEK Athens FC
🟨
84'
Andrija Živković
PAOK
🔄
85'
G. Konstantelias ↔ G. Giakoumakis
PAOK
⚽
88'
A. Mythou · Assist: A. Zivkovic
PAOK

PAOK vs AEK Athens FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 32.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 38.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
32.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
38.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
PAOK Win 46%
Draw 13.8%
AEK Athens FC Win 40.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
PAOK1.4
AEK Athens FC1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
PAOK PAOK
WWDLW
80 GF / 40 GA
AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC
WLDWL
85 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.82
Average Goals Scored
1.85
0.91
Average Goals Conceded
0.76
18
BTTS Yes
18
24
Over 2.5
22
4.57
Shots on Goal
4.76

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

PAOK PAOK 44 matches
AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC 46 matches
PAOK Statistic AEK Athens FC
23 Wins 30
12 Draws 11
9 Losses 5
80 Goals For 85
40 Goals Against 35
1.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.85
0.91 Avg Goals Conceded 0.76
18 BTTS Yes 18
32 Over 1.5 32
24 Over 2.5 22
13 Over 3.5 16
22 Clean Sheets 24
11 Failed To Score 7
4.57 Shots On Goal 4.76
12.05 Total Shots 14.35
4.73 Corners 5.15
54.1% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring AEK Athens FC. AEK Athens FC look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with PAOK expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and AEK Athens FC in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AEK Athens FC having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

PAOK Analysis

Placed 2 with 62 points from 30 outings, PAOK continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 18 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 56:22 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by G. Konstantelias (8 goals), Giorgos Giakoumakis (7 goals), M. Ozdoev (7 goals), with creative support from A. Zivkovic (10 assists), Taison (6 assists), M. Ozdoev (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 12 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

AEK Athens FC Analysis

AEK Athens FC approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 70 points after 30 outings. They have recorded 21 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, with a 55:18 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Luka Jović (16 goals), B. Varga (5 goals), Orbelín Pineda (5 goals), with creative support from R. Marin (7 assists), Lazaros Rota (5 assists), Robert Ljubičić (4 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, PAOK won 5 times, AEK Athens FC won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:19 from PAOK's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.2%)
Predicted formations: PAOK 4-2-3-1 / AEK Athens FC 4-4-2
H2H summary: PAOK wins 5, draws 6, AEK Athens FC wins 4

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 18 6 2 49:17 32 60
D D W D W
2 26 17 7 2 45:11 34 58
D W D L W
3
PAOK Home
26 17 6 3 52:17 35 57
D D D W L
4 26 14 7 5 44:26 18 49
D L L D L
5 26 12 6 8 51:37 14 42
L W W W L
6 26 10 2 14 34:45 -11 32
W L L L W
7 26 9 4 13 26:38 -12 31
L L L L L
8 26 6 12 8 20:27 -7 30
W W W W W
9 26 7 8 11 26:30 -4 29
W L W L L
10 26 6 9 11 32:42 -10 27
W D L W W
11 26 7 5 14 24:38 -14 26
L D D W L
12 26 4 11 11 22:39 -17 23
L W D D D
13 26 4 5 17 16:55 -39 17
L D L L D
14 26 3 8 15 22:41 -19 17
W D W D W
Championship round
Qualifying round
Relegation Round