LITHUANIA A LYGA
30.08.2026 16:00
Aukstaitijos Stadium
Referee: O. Abramavicius
Panevėžys
Match Timeline
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
D. Sesplaukis
Panevėžys
44'
S. Kouadio · Assist: K. Asamoah
Panevėžys
🔄
46'
N. Petkovic ↔ K. Upstas
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
🔄
46'
M. Capan ↔ O. Verbickas
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
🔄
54'
Elivelton ↔ N. Petkevicius
Panevėžys
🟨
55'
S. Kouadio
Panevėžys
🟨
56'
S. Kouadio
Panevėžys
🟥
56'
S. Kouadio
Panevėžys
🟨
59'
S. Kerkez
Panevėžys
60'
S. Bilenkyi · Assist: S. Bilenkyi
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
🔄
67'
M. van den Bos ↔ R. Rasimavicius
Panevėžys
🔄
67'
K. Asamoah ↔ V. Paulauskas
Panevėžys
🔄
74'
D. Sesplaukis ↔ N. Mihajlovic
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
🔄
74'
P. Golubickas ↔ L. Antal
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
🟨
78'
S. Bilenkyi
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
🔄
90'
E. Burdzilauskas ↔ D. Balsys
Panevėžys
🔄
90'
J. Bopesu ↔ J. Janusevskis
Panevėžys

Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59.6%
Odds 1.52
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.54
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59.6%
1.52
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.54
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
3.68
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Panevėžys Win 35.3%
Draw 5.1%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius Win 59.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Panevėžys1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Panevėžys Panevėžys
WWDLW
37 GF / 49 GA
FK Zalgiris Vilnius FK Zalgiris Vilnius
WLDWL
64 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1.78
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
19
BTTS Yes
20
16
Over 2.5
25
0
Shots on Goal
1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Panevėžys Panevėžys 34 matches
FK Zalgiris Vilnius FK Zalgiris Vilnius 36 matches
Panevėžys Statistic FK Zalgiris Vilnius
12 Wins 18
8 Draws 5
14 Losses 13
37 Goals For 64
49 Goals Against 54
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
19 BTTS Yes 20
26 Over 1.5 29
16 Over 2.5 25
7 Over 3.5 14
6 Clean Sheets 11
10 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 1
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 1.4
0% Ball Possession 17%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between FK Zalgiris Vilnius's more proactive style and Panevėžys's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FK Zalgiris Vilnius having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Panevėžys Analysis

Panevėžys sit 7 with 23 points after 23 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 5 draws, and 12 losses, while the 21:39 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius Analysis

From their first 22 matches, FK Zalgiris Vilnius have collected 34 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, while the 35:27 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Panevėžys won 6 times, FK Zalgiris Vilnius won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:28 from Panevėžys's perspective. 13 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Panevėžys - / FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Panevėžys wins 6, draws 1, FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins 8

Standings

A Lyga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 14 9 5 56:20 36 51
W L W W W
2 28 13 11 4 39:25 14 50
D D L W W
3 28 13 6 9 43:35 8 45
W W L W D
4 28 13 5 10 41:34 7 44
L W D W L
5 28 11 8 9 32:28 4 41
W L L D D
6 28 10 8 10 36:40 -4 38
L L D L L
7 28 9 5 14 29:43 -14 32
L W W W L
8 29 4 14 11 31:48 -17 26
D D L D D
9 29 3 8 18 24:58 -34 17
L D L L L
10 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
L L L L L