GREECE SUPER LEAGUE 1
12.05.2026 16:00
Panetolikos Stadium
Referee: A. Tsakalidis
Panetolikos
Match Timeline
Larisa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
F. Perez ↔ D. Olafsson
Larisa
🟨
52'
Youssouph Badji
Panetolikos
58'
L. Tupta · Assist: A. Sagal
Larisa
🔄
63'
G. Pasas ↔ L. Garate
Larisa
🔄
68'
Y. Badji ↔ J. Garcia
Panetolikos
🔄
68'
C. Mavrias ↔ G. Satsias
Panetolikos
🔄
68'
Lenny Lobato ↔ L. Smyrlis
Panetolikos
🔄
77'
Farley Rosa ↔ K. Aleksic
Panetolikos
🔄
77'
Esteban Diego ↔ J. Aguirre
Panetolikos
🔄
78'
A. Sagal ↔ Z. Chatzistravos
Larisa
🔄
78'
Y. Macon ↔ E. Ferigra
Larisa
🟨
90+6'
Andreas Bouchalakis
Panetolikos
🟨
90+6'
Jani Atanasov
Larisa
🔄
90+4'
L. Tupta ↔ T. Iliadis
Larisa
90'
J. Garcia · Assist: G. Satsias
Panetolikos

Panetolikos vs Larisa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 15.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
15.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
73.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Panetolikos Win 82.4%
Draw 5.9%
Larisa Win 11.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Panetolikos1.2
Larisa1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Panetolikos Panetolikos
WWDLW
32 GF / 47 GA
Larisa Larisa
WLDWL
29 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
0.88
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
14
BTTS Yes
19
15
Over 2.5
12
2.88
Shots on Goal
3.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Panetolikos Panetolikos 33 matches
Larisa Larisa 33 matches
Panetolikos Statistic Larisa
9 Wins 4
7 Draws 14
17 Losses 15
32 Goals For 29
47 Goals Against 51
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 0.88
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
14 BTTS Yes 19
21 Over 1.5 26
15 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 6
16 Failed To Score 10
2.88 Shots On Goal 3.79
8.76 Total Shots 11.33
3.42 Corners 3.88
44.4% Ball Possession 46.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Larisa. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Panetolikos expected to line up in 4-4-1-1 and Larisa in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Larisa having the stronger overall control. Panetolikos have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Panetolikos Analysis

Panetolikos sit 3 with 34 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 17 defeats with a 32:47 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Alexandru Mățan (5 goals), K. Aleksic (5 goals), Béni Nkololo (4 goals), with creative support from Y. Badji (4 assists), Alexandru Mățan (3 assists), Konrad Michalak (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Larisa Analysis

So far, Larisa have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 26 points from 33 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 14 draws, and 15 losses, while the 29:51 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Ángelo Sagal (6 goals), G. Pasas (5 goals), Ľubomír Tupta (5 goals), with creative support from Ľubomír Tupta (2 assists), Savvas Mourgos (2 assists), Ángelo Sagal (1 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses points toward a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Panetolikos won 6 times, Larisa won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:19 from Panetolikos's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
Predicted formations: Panetolikos 4-4-1-1 / Larisa 5-4-1
H2H summary: Panetolikos wins 6, draws 5, Larisa wins 4

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 18 6 2 49:17 32 60
D D W D W
2 26 17 7 2 45:11 34 58
D W D L W
3 26 17 6 3 52:17 35 57
D D D W L
4 26 14 7 5 44:26 18 49
D L L D L
5 26 12 6 8 51:37 14 42
L W W W L
6 26 10 2 14 34:45 -11 32
W L L L W
7 26 9 4 13 26:38 -12 31
L L L L L
8 26 6 12 8 20:27 -7 30
W W W W W
9 26 7 8 11 26:30 -4 29
W L W L L
10 26 6 9 11 32:42 -10 27
W D L W W
11 26 7 5 14 24:38 -14 26
L D D W L
12 26 4 11 11 22:39 -17 23
L W D D D
13 26 4 5 17 16:55 -39 17
L D L L D
14 26 3 8 15 22:41 -19 17
W D W D W
Championship round
Qualifying round
Relegation Round