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09.09.2026 22:00
Nubank Parque
Referee: J. Valenzuela
Palmeiras
Match Timeline
LDU de Quito
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Michael Estrada
LDU de Quito
🟨
22'
Fernando Cornejo
LDU de Quito
⚽
26'
A. Giay
Palmeiras
🟨
32'
Yerlin Quinonez
LDU de Quito
🟨
44'
Gustavo Gómez
Palmeiras
🔄
46'
Y. Quinonez ↔ J. Carabali
LDU de Quito
🔄
51'
F. Cornejo ↔ J. Rodriguez
LDU de Quito
🔄
61'
J. Pretell ↔ S. Gonzalez Baquero
LDU de Quito
🔄
61'
L. Rodriguez ↔ A. Alvarado
LDU de Quito
🟨
73'
Gian Franco Allala
LDU de Quito
🔄
79'
Vitor Roque ↔ Heittor Vinicius
Palmeiras
🔄
85'
M. Estrada ↔ Deyverson
LDU de Quito
🟨
90'
Bruno Fuchs
Palmeiras
🟨
90+3'
Lucas Evangelista
Palmeiras

Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 63.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
63.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Palmeiras Win 44.8%
Draw 18.6%
LDU de Quito Win 36.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Palmeiras1.33
LDU de Quito0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Palmeiras Palmeiras
D D W W L
8 GF / 5 GA
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito
W D L W D
6 GF / 3 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.1
0.79
Average Goals Conceded
0.8
21
BTTS Yes
14
16
Over 2.5
10
4.88
Shots on Goal
3.46

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Palmeiras Palmeiras 34 matches
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito 40 matches
Palmeiras Statistic LDU de Quito
19 Wins 18
11 Draws 10
4 Losses 12
57 Goals For 44
27 Goals Against 32
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
0.79 Avg Goals Conceded 0.8
21 BTTS Yes 14
24 Over 1.5 24
16 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 4
12 Clean Sheets 16
4 Failed To Score 15
4.88 Shots On Goal 3.46
15.09 Total Shots 13.81
5.91 Corners 5.35
53.7% Ball Possession 50.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Palmeiras expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and LDU de Quito in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward LDU de Quito having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors LDU de Quito. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Palmeiras Analysis

Palmeiras come into this tie placed 2 in their league with 11 points from 6 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 10:5 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on José Manuel López (3 goals), Jhon Arias (3 goals), Ramón Sosa (2 goals), with creative support from José Manuel López (4 assists), Jhon Arias (2 assists), Allan (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

LDU de Quito Analysis

LDU de Quito enter this tie with a season profile built on 12 points from 6 matches, placing them 1 in their league. The return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 8:5 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Yerlin Quinonez (2 goals), Deyverson (2 goals), Michael Estrada (1 goals), with creative support from Janner Corozo (3 assists), Michael Estrada (1 assists), Jesús Pretell (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras won 1 times, LDU de Quito won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:3 from Palmeiras's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.4%)
Predicted formations: Palmeiras 3-4-1-2 / LDU de Quito 3-5-2
H2H summary: Palmeiras wins 1, draws 0, LDU de Quito wins 1

Standings

Group F
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 1 1 6:2 4 13
W W W D W
2 6 3 2 1 10:5 5 11
W L W D W
3 6 2 0 4 6:9 -3 6
L L L W L
4 6 1 1 4 5:11 -6 4
L W L L L
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals