ITALY › SERIE B
01.05.2026 13:00
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Referee: C. G. Allegretta
Palermo
Match Timeline
Catanzaro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
3'
F. Pittarello
Catanzaro
⚽
15'
D. Johnsen · Assist: F. Ranocchia
Palermo
⚽
32'
F. Pittarello · Assist: F. Di Francesco
Catanzaro
🟨
45+2'
Emmanuel Gyasi
Palermo
🔄
46'
N. Pierozzi ↔ T. Augello
Palermo
⚽
54'
P. Nuamah
Palermo
🔄
61'
P. Nuamah ↔ G. Alesi
Catanzaro
🔄
63'
M. Bani ↔ B. Bereszynski
Palermo
🔄
63'
E. Gyasi ↔ A. Vasic
Palermo
🔄
69'
G. Magnani ↔ P. Peda
Palermo
🔄
71'
F. Di Francesco ↔ N. Koffi
Catanzaro
🔄
71'
R. Oudin ↔ F. Rispoli
Catanzaro
🟨
77'
Dennis Johnsen
Palermo
VAR
84'
Patryk Peda
Palermo
⚽
86'
J. Pohjanpalo
Palermo
🔄
87'
R. Frosinini ↔ T. Cassandro
Catanzaro
🔄
88'
S. Giovane ↔ C. Gomes
Palermo
🔄
88'
Matias Antonini ↔ E. Bashi
Catanzaro

Palermo vs Catanzaro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 77.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
77.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Palermo Win 64%
Draw 0%
Catanzaro Win 36%
Expected Goals (xG)
Palermo1.43
Catanzaro1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Palermo Palermo
WWDLW
59 GF / 31 GA
Catanzaro Catanzaro
WLDWL
58 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.55
Average Goals Scored
1.57
0.82
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
16
BTTS Yes
24
17
Over 2.5
19
4.47
Shots on Goal
4.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Palermo Palermo 38 matches
Catanzaro Catanzaro 37 matches
Palermo Statistic Catanzaro
19 Wins 15
13 Draws 14
6 Losses 8
59 Goals For 58
31 Goals Against 46
1.55 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
0.82 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
16 BTTS Yes 24
27 Over 1.5 29
17 Over 2.5 19
7 Over 3.5 14
18 Clean Sheets 9
8 Failed To Score 7
4.47 Shots On Goal 4.3
14.13 Total Shots 12.7
5.29 Corners 4.08
49.1% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Catanzaro. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Palermo Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 69 points from 36 games, Palermo bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 19 wins, 12 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 58:29, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. Pohjanpalo (23 goals), Filippo Ranocchia (6 goals), J. Le Douaron (5 goals), with creative support from A. Palumbo (10 assists), J. Pohjanpalo (7 assists), J. Le Douaron (5 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 13 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Catanzaro Analysis

Placed 5 with 59 points from 36 outings, Catanzaro continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 15 wins, 14 draws, and 7 losses, while the 58:45 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Filippo Pittarello (10 goals), P. Iemmello (10 goals), Alphadjo Cissè (6 goals), with creative support from P. Iemmello (9 assists), Filippo Pittarello (6 assists), S. Pontisso (6 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Palermo won 3 times, Catanzaro won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:16 from Palermo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.23 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Palermo 3-4-2-1 / Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Palermo wins 3, draws 4, Catanzaro wins 6

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation