ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Paide linnastaadion
Referee: R. Maalinn
Paide
Match Timeline
Vaprus
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
15'
A. Badamosi · Assist: E. Tur
Paide
24'
M. Limberg · Assist: T. Pajo
Vaprus
43'
D. Luts
Paide
🔄
46'
M. Lilander ↔ R. Nigula
Paide
47'
Victor Hugo · Assist: N. Baranov
Paide
🟨
60'
S. Luts
Paide
🔄
60'
A. Badamosi ↔ K. Piht
Paide
🟨
62'
S. Kapper
Vaprus
🟨
67'
K. Aloe
Vaprus
🔄
70'
S. Kapper ↔ J. Poder
Vaprus
🔄
70'
S. Viidas ↔ V. Vallik
Vaprus
🔄
70'
M. Villota ↔ R. Orm
Vaprus
🔄
72'
S. Luts ↔ R. Smirnov
Paide
🔄
72'
Daniel Cabral ↔ A. Surogin
Paide
🔄
84'
D. Luts ↔ H. Ojamaa
Paide
🔄
84'
M. Limberg ↔ K. Kauber
Vaprus
🔄
84'
J. Sild ↔ J. Allas
Vaprus
🟨
89'
Victor Hugo
Paide

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 56.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
56.3%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Paide Win 33.5%
Draw 10.2%
Vaprus Win 56.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paide1.72
Vaprus1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paide Paide
WWDLW
42 GF / 34 GA
Vaprus Vaprus
WLDWL
40 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
1.74
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.87
19
BTTS Yes
13
15
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paide Paide 26 matches
Vaprus Vaprus 23 matches
Paide Statistic Vaprus
12 Wins 9
7 Draws 3
7 Losses 11
42 Goals For 40
34 Goals Against 43
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 1.74
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.87
19 BTTS Yes 13
19 Over 1.5 19
15 Over 2.5 15
11 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 6
2 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Paide's more proactive style and Vaprus's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vaprus. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vaprus having the stronger overall control.

Paide Analysis

Placed 4 with 28 points from 17 outings, Paide continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 26:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Vaprus Analysis

From their first 17 matches, Vaprus have collected 23 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, while the 21:31 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Paide won 9 times, Vaprus won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:11 from Paide's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.8%)
H2H summary: Paide wins 9, draws 2, Vaprus wins 4
Last matches: Paide
09.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
1
1
D
28.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
21.06.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
01.05.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
26.04.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
2
D
15.03.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
1
0
W
07.03.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
2
3
L
28.02.26
Fri
Paide
Super Nova
1
0
W
Last matches: Vaprus
11.07.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
5
1
W
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Tallinna Kalev
6
0
W
H2H: Paide vs Vaprus
04.07.26
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
3
1
W
06.05.26
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.03.26
H2H
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
L
02.11.25
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
3
0
W
30.08.25
H2H
Vaprus
Paide
1
0
L
18.06.25
H2H
Vaprus
Paide
1
2
W
09.04.25
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
1
0
W
23.10.24
H2H
Vaprus
Paide
0
1
W
18.08.24
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
1
0
W
18.06.24
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
0
1
L
03.03.24
H2H
Vaprus
Paide
0
3
W
23.09.23
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
3
0
W
30.06.23
H2H
Vaprus
Paide
1
1
D
21.05.23
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
0
1
L
23.04.23
H2H
Vaprus
Paide
2
2
D
Last matches: Paide
17.06.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
01.05.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
26.04.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
08.04.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
1
0
W
28.02.26
Fri
Paide
Super Nova
1
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Paide
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
31.01.26
Fri
Paide
Metta / LU
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
Paide
Rīgas FS
2
2
D
14.01.26
Fri
Paide
Tartu Welco
5
1
W
24.07.25
UEF
Paide
AIK Stockholm
0
2
L
17.07.25
UEF
Paide
Magpies
4
1
W
H2H at home: Paide
04.07.26
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
3
1
W
06.05.26
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
2
0
W
02.11.25
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
3
0
W
09.04.25
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
1
0
W
18.08.24
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
1
0
W
18.06.24
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
0
1
L
23.09.23
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
3
0
W
21.05.23
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
0
1
L
Last matches: Vaprus
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
08.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Tallinna Kalev
6
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
3
L
H2H away: Vaprus
04.07.26
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
3
1
L
06.05.26
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
2
0
L
02.11.25
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
3
0
L
09.04.25
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
1
0
L
18.08.24
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
1
0
L
18.06.24
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
0
1
W
23.09.23
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
3
0
L
21.05.23
H2H
Paide
Vaprus
0
1
W

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 14 4 1 49:16 33 46
W L D W W
2 18 12 0 6 38:19 19 36
W W L W L
3 19 10 4 5 33:16 17 34
W D D L D
4
Paide Home
19 9 5 5 30:23 7 32
W D W W D
5 19 8 2 9 27:35 -8 26
W L W L D
6 18 8 2 8 21:26 -5 26
L W W W D
7 19 7 1 11 37:45 -8 22
W L W L W
8 19 7 1 11 25:32 -7 22
W L L L L
9 19 5 2 12 19:33 -14 17
L L L D W
10 19 3 1 15 12:46 -34 10
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga