ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Paide linnastaadion
Referee: T. Uprus
Paide
Match Timeline
Laagri
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
24'
A. Jarve
Paide
🟨
32'
A. Badamosi
Paide
🟨
52'
S. Soo
Laagri
🔄
63'
R. Nigula ↔ H. Ojamaa
Paide
🔄
66'
S. Soo ↔ I. Kartau
Laagri
🔄
66'
K. Eerme ↔ R. Sillamaa
Laagri
🔄
66'
K. Kriis ↔ M. Kesa
Laagri
🟨
75'
R. Reimaa
Laagri
🔄
79'
D. Luts ↔ H. Anier
Paide
🔄
81'
R. Reimaa ↔ A. Kose
Laagri
🔄
81'
Rudenko Daniil ↔ K. Roomussaar
Laagri
🔄
88'
A. Badamosi ↔ K. Piht
Paide

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 80.2%
Odds 1.10
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.55
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
80.2%
1.10
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.55
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.24
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Paide Win 39%
Draw 41.2%
Laagri Win 19.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paide1.63
Laagri1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paide Paide
WWDLW
38 GF / 32 GA
Laagri Laagri
WLDWL
36 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
1.64
1.39
Average Goals Conceded
1.59
17
BTTS Yes
12
14
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paide Paide 23 matches
Laagri Laagri 22 matches
Paide Statistic Laagri
10 Wins 10
6 Draws 3
7 Losses 9
38 Goals For 36
32 Goals Against 35
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.64
1.39 Avg Goals Conceded 1.59
17 BTTS Yes 12
17 Over 1.5 20
14 Over 2.5 15
11 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 6
2 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Paide's more proactive style and Laagri's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Laagri having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Laagri. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Paide Analysis

Paide come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 21 points from 14 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, while the 22:19 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on Daniel Cabral (5 goals), M. P. Sohna (4 goals), H. Anier (3 goals), with creative support from H. Anier (3 assists), Victor Hugo (2 assists), M. P. Sohna (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Laagri Analysis

Placed 5 with 19 points from 14 outings, Laagri continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, while the 18:23 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on K. Eerme (5 goals), K. Kriis (3 goals), A. Binate (2 goals), with creative support from Rudenko Daniil (6 assists), A. Binate (2 assists), K. Eerme (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Paide won 6 times, Laagri won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:8 from Paide's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.56 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (80.2%)
H2H summary: Paide wins 6, draws 2, Laagri wins 1

Lineups

Paide
Formation
Laagri
E. Jarju
E. Jarju
E. Tur
E. Tur
M. Lilander
M. Lilander
N. Baranov
N. Baranov
Victor Hugo
Victor Hugo
R. Nigula
R. Nigula
D. Luts
D. Luts
O. Hoim
O. Hoim
M. Miller
M. Miller
M. P. Sohna
M. P. Sohna
A. Badamosi
A. Badamosi
J. Vainula
J. Vainula
A. Jarve
A. Jarve
S. Liit
S. Liit
K. Laur
K. Laur
Rudenko Daniil
Rudenko Daniil
R. Reimaa
R. Reimaa
M. Kelement
M. Kelement
S. Soo
S. Soo
K. Eerme
K. Eerme
K. Kriis
K. Kriis
J. Ndakala
J. Ndakala
Paide 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
99
E. Jarju
7
E. Tur
2
M. Lilander
27
N. Baranov
3
Victor Hugo
24
R. Nigula
↓ 63'
77
D. Luts
↓ 79'
28
O. Hoim
10
M. Miller
11
M. P. Sohna
30
A. Badamosi
↓ 88' 🟨 32'
Substitutes
12
M. Meerits
4
Andrade
6
Daniel Cabral
8
H. Ojamaa
↑ 63'
9
H. Anier
↑ 79'
14
M. Jobarteh
15
H. Ojamaa
16
A. Surogin
17
P. A. Cham
19
S. Luts
20
K. Piht
↑ 88'
Laagri 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
J. Vainula
4
A. Jarve
⚽ 24'
15
S. Liit
24
K. Laur
23
Rudenko Daniil
↓ 81'
7
R. Reimaa
↓ 81' 🟨 75'
17
M. Kelement
21
S. Soo
↓ 66' 🟨 52'
9
K. Eerme
↓ 66'
16
K. Kriis
↓ 66'
53
J. Ndakala
Substitutes
79
R. Meesit
3
A. Kaevats
5
I. Kartau
↑ 66'
11
A. Kose
↑ 81'
13
R. Sillamaa
↑ 66'
18
I. Bah
22
M. Kesa
↑ 66'
32
S. Kerge
47
K. Ennuste
66
K. Roomussaar
↑ 81'
95
S. Suppi
Last matches: Paide
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
01.05.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
26.04.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
2
D
15.03.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
1
0
W
07.03.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
2
3
L
28.02.26
Fri
Paide
Super Nova
1
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Paide
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Paide
Trans Narva
1
1
D
31.01.26
Fri
Paide
Metta / LU
2
1
W
Last matches: Laagri
20.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
L
13.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
30.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
20.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
16.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
09.05.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
3
L
30.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
0
5
L
25.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
18.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
08.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
2
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
2
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
07.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
2
1
W
28.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Metta / LU
1
5
L
20.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Mārupe
4
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Riga Mariners
4
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Valmiera / BSS
2
1
W
H2H: Paide vs Laagri
22.04.26
H2H
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
20.09.25
H2H
Laagri
Paide
3
0
L
03.08.25
H2H
Paide
Laagri
2
0
W
17.05.25
H2H
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
12.04.25
H2H
Laagri
Paide
1
2
W
08.10.23
H2H
Paide
Laagri
4
0
W
06.08.23
H2H
Laagri
Paide
0
1
W
11.06.23
H2H
Laagri
Paide
0
1
W
01.04.23
H2H
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
Last matches: Paide
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
01.05.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
26.04.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
08.04.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
1
0
W
28.02.26
Fri
Paide
Super Nova
1
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Paide
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
31.01.26
Fri
Paide
Metta / LU
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
Paide
Rīgas FS
2
2
D
14.01.26
Fri
Paide
Tartu Welco
5
1
W
24.07.25
UEF
Paide
AIK Stockholm
0
2
L
17.07.25
UEF
Paide
Magpies
4
1
W
H2H at home: Paide
03.08.25
H2H
Paide
Laagri
2
0
W
17.05.25
H2H
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
08.10.23
H2H
Paide
Laagri
4
0
W
01.04.23
H2H
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
Last matches: Laagri
20.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
09.05.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
3
L
30.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
0
5
L
18.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
2
1
W
28.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Metta / LU
1
5
L
01.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Džiugas Telšiai
1
1
D
H2H away: Laagri
03.08.25
H2H
Paide
Laagri
2
0
L
17.05.25
H2H
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
08.10.23
H2H
Paide
Laagri
4
0
L
01.04.23
H2H
Paide
Laagri
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.52
Draw 4.37
Home 1.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.55
Draw 2.56
Home 1.92
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 2.25 1.39
Over 2.5 1.55
Over 2.75 1.69
Over 3.0 1.91
Over 3.25 2.16
Over 3.5 2.39
Over 3.75 2.80
Under 2.25 2.85
Under 2.5 2.37
Under 2.75 2.13
Under 3.0 1.89
Under 3.25 1.68
Under 3.5 1.53
Under 3.75 1.40
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 3.90
Home 1.48
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 2.50
Home 1.91
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.88
Home 1.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.57
Over 3.5 2.25
Over 4.5 4.00
Over 5.5 7.00
Over 6.5 10.50
Over 7.5 17.00
Over 8.5 21.00
Under 0.5 10.50
Under 1.5 4.50
Under 2.5 2.35
Under 3.5 1.57
Under 4.5 1.22
Under 5.5 1.08
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.00
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.85
Draw 4.10
Home 1.46
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.67
Draw 2.36
Home 1.98
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.25
Draw 2.89
Home 1.76
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.0 1.01
Over 1.5 1.14
Over 1.75 1.17
Over 2.0 1.21
Over 2.25 1.36
Over 2.5 1.52
Over 2.75 1.64
Over 3.0 1.82
Over 3.25 2.06
Over 3.5 2.34
Over 3.75 2.63
Over 4.0 3.28
Over 4.25 3.58
Over 4.5 3.88
Over 4.75 4.75
Over 5.0 6.35
Over 5.25 6.60
Over 5.5 6.90
Over 6.5 10.50
Over 7.5 17.00
Over 8.5 21.00
Under 0.5 13.20
Under 1.0 9.70
Under 1.5 4.40
Under 1.75 4.00
Under 2.0 3.58
Under 2.25 2.69
Under 2.5 2.24
Under 2.75 2.02
Under 3.0 1.80
Under 3.25 1.62
Under 3.5 1.53
Under 3.75 1.38
Under 4.0 1.25
Under 4.25 1.21
Under 4.5 1.18
Under 4.75 1.12
Under 5.0 1.06
Under 5.25 1.05
Under 5.5 1.04
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.00
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.10
Draw 4.10
Home 1.53
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.80
Draw 2.63
Home 2.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.95
Home 1.88
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.12
Over 2.0 1.20
Over 2.25 1.35
Over 2.5 1.50
Over 2.75 1.62
Over 3.0 1.80
Over 3.25 2.02
Over 3.5 2.25
Over 3.75 2.60
Over 4.0 3.30
Over 4.25 3.60
Over 4.5 3.90
Over 4.75 4.75
Over 5.0 6.25
Over 5.25 6.50
Over 5.5 6.75
Under 1.5 4.75
Under 2.0 3.95
Under 2.25 2.88
Under 2.5 2.35
Under 2.75 2.12
Under 3.0 1.88
Under 3.25 1.68
Under 3.5 1.53
Under 3.75 1.41
Under 4.0 1.27
Under 4.25 1.23
Under 4.5 1.20
Under 4.75 1.14
Under 5.0 1.08
Under 5.25 1.07
Under 5.5 1.07

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 4 0 45:13 32 43
D W W W W
2 15 10 0 5 32:16 16 30
W L W W W
3 17 9 3 5 29:14 15 30
D L D L W
4
Paide Home
16 7 4 5 24:20 4 25
W D D L L
5 15 6 2 7 17:20 -3 20
W D L W W
6 16 6 2 8 20:31 -11 20
L D W L W
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 16 5 2 9 17:26 -9 17
D W D W L
10 16 3 1 12 11:39 -28 10
D L L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga