CYPRUS 1. DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Stelios Kyriakides Stadium
Referee: R. Gidzhenov
Pafos
Match Timeline
Aris
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
28'
Domingos Quina
Pafos
30'
J. Correia
Pafos
🟨
35'
João Correia
Pafos
49'
V. Dragomir
Pafos
🟨
56'
Nikolas Ioannou
Pafos
🔄
58'
Anderson Correia ↔ G. Kalulu
Aris
🔄
59'
N. Ioannou ↔ O. Mimovic
Pafos
🟨
61'
Pêpê
Pafos
🔄
65'
Pepe ↔ Dani Silva
Pafos
🔄
69'
V. Nikolic ↔ A. Kokorin
Aris
🟨
76'
Collins Phares Fi Akamba
Aris
🔄
78'
J. Correia ↔ K. Sema
Pafos
🔄
78'
D. Quina ↔ A. Brito
Pafos
🔄
85'
Gustavo Paje ↔ D. Gaustad
Aris
🔄
85'
G. Kastanos ↔ V. Neokleous
Aris
🟨
90+5'
Jay Gorter
Pafos

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Pafos Win 58.4%
Draw 16%
Aris Win 25.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Pafos1.44
Aris1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Pafos Pafos
WWDLW
76 GF / 50 GA
Aris Aris
WLDWL
64 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
1.73
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
22
BTTS Yes
18
21
Over 2.5
22
2.47
Shots on Goal
2.12

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Pafos Pafos 47 matches
Aris Aris 37 matches
Pafos Statistic Aris
22 Wins 16
12 Draws 10
13 Losses 11
76 Goals For 64
50 Goals Against 43
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
22 BTTS Yes 18
36 Over 1.5 31
21 Over 2.5 22
12 Over 3.5 13
19 Clean Sheets 15
9 Failed To Score 6
2.47 Shots On Goal 2.12
6.76 Total Shots 5.71
2.89 Corners 2.09
29.5% Ball Possession 19.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Aris. Aris arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Pafos Analysis

Pafos come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 55 points from 32 matches. The record of 16 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 60:34 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Anderson Silva (9 goals), J. Correia (9 goals), D. Luckassen (6 goals), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Aris Analysis

Aris sit 6 with 48 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 13 wins, 9 draws, and 10 defeats with a 55:36 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Montnor (8 goals), R. Effaghe (8 goals), Andronikos Kakoullis (6 goals), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Pafos won 6 times, Aris won 2 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:13 from Pafos's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84%)
Predicted formations: Pafos 4-2-3-1 / Aris 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Pafos wins 6, draws 7, Aris wins 2

Lineups

Pafos
Formation
Aris
J. Gorter
J. Gorter
D. Luckassen
D. Luckassen
David Luiz
David Luiz
N. Ioannou
N. Ioannou
I. Sunjic
I. Sunjic
D. Quina
D. Quina
J. Correia
J. Correia
V. Dragomir
V. Dragomir
Pepe
Pepe
M. Orsic
M. Orsic
Anderson Silva
Anderson Silva
Vana Alves
Vana Alves
M. Sane
M. Sane
C. Fi Akamba
C. Fi Akamba
Y. Bourhane
Y. Bourhane
Anderson Correia
Anderson Correia
C. Charalampous
C. Charalampous
G. Kastanos
G. Kastanos
Gustavo Paje
Gustavo Paje
V. Nikolic
V. Nikolic
J. Montnor
J. Montnor
R. Effaghe
R. Effaghe
Pafos 3-2-4-1
Starting XI
1
J. Gorter
🟨 90+5'
G
23
D. Luckassen
D
4
David Luiz
D
14
N. Ioannou
↓ 59' 🟨 56'
D
26
I. Sunjic
M
8
D. Quina
↓ 78' 🟨 28'
M
77
J. Correia
⚽ 30' ↓ 78' 🟨 35'
M
30
V. Dragomir
⚽ 49'
M
88
Pepe
↓ 65' 🟨 61'
M
17
M. Orsic
M
33
Anderson Silva
F
Substitutes
42
G. Michael
99
A. Papadoudis
G
71
G. Skafi
D
19
A. Guessand
D
12
K. Sema
↑ 78'
M
21
O. Mimovic
↑ 59'
D
20
W. Odefalk
M
50
A. Brito
↑ 78'
M
9
M. Bassouamina
F
80
Dani Silva
↑ 65'
M
11
Jaja
M
18
Lele
F
Aris 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Vana Alves
G
19
M. Sane
D
88
C. Fi Akamba
🟨 76'
M
18
Y. Bourhane
M
7
Anderson Correia
↓ 58'
D
76
C. Charalampous
M
28
G. Kastanos
↓ 85'
M
30
Gustavo Paje
↓ 85'
22
V. Nikolic
↓ 69'
M
66
J. Montnor
M
99
R. Effaghe
F
Substitutes
26
A. Pishias
G
90
E. Sofroniou
G
2
G. Kalulu
↑ 58'
D
9
A. Kokorin
↑ 69'
F
12
A. Dimitriou
D
29
D. Gaustad
↑ 85'
M
36
V. Neokleous
↑ 85'
38
G. Melas
D
45
R. McCausland
M
80
A. Kakoullis
F
Last matches: Pafos
16.07.26
Fri
Pafos
Slovan Bratislava
2
3
L
12.07.26
Fri
Pafos
Jagiellonia
0
1
L
08.07.26
Fri
Pafos
FK Jablonec
0
0
D
03.07.26
Fri
Pafos
Cracovia Krakow
2
1
W
22.05.26
1.
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
2
0
W
16.05.26
1.
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
2
2
D
06.05.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
0
2
L
03.05.26
1.
Pafos
Apollon Limassol
1
2
L
26.04.26
1.
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
3
3
D
18.04.26
1.
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
1
D
14.04.26
1.
Pafos
Aris
1
1
D
04.04.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
0
2
L
22.03.26
1.
Pafos
Apollon Limassol
1
1
D
14.03.26
1.
Pafos
Akritas
4
0
W
07.03.26
1.
Pafos
Krasava Ypsonas
7
0
W
01.03.26
1.
Pafos
Aris
2
2
D
21.02.26
1.
Pafos
Anorthosis
0
0
D
15.02.26
1.
Pafos
AEL
1
0
W
08.02.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
2
4
L
04.02.26
1.
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
2
0
W
Last matches: Aris
22.05.26
1.
Aris
AEK Larnaca
3
4
L
16.05.26
1.
Aris
Apollon Limassol
2
3
L
06.05.26
1.
Aris
Apoel Nicosia
1
0
W
02.05.26
1.
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
0
3
L
25.04.26
1.
Aris
AEK Larnaca
0
2
L
18.04.26
1.
Aris
Apollon Limassol
3
0
W
14.04.26
1.
Aris
Pafos
1
1
D
05.04.26
1.
Aris
Apoel Nicosia
1
2
L
21.03.26
1.
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
2
2
D
15.03.26
1.
Aris
Apoel Nicosia
1
2
L
08.03.26
1.
Aris
Enosis
4
0
W
01.03.26
1.
Aris
Pafos
2
2
D
20.02.26
1.
Aris
Krasava Ypsonas
1
1
D
14.02.26
1.
Aris
Akritas
1
1
D
09.02.26
1.
Aris
Anorthosis
0
1
L
01.02.26
1.
Aris
AEL
1
2
L
25.01.26
1.
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
3
5
L
17.01.26
1.
Aris
Ethnikos Achna
3
0
W
10.01.26
1.
Aris
AEK Larnaca
1
0
W
04.01.26
1.
Aris
Olympiakos
0
0
D
H2H: Pafos vs Aris
10.05.26
H2H
Pafos
Aris
2
0
W
14.04.26
H2H
Aris
Pafos
1
1
D
01.03.26
H2H
Aris
Pafos
2
2
D
21.11.25
H2H
Pafos
Aris
2
1
W
04.05.25
H2H
Pafos
Aris
4
0
W
02.04.25
H2H
Aris
Pafos
0
1
W
15.01.25
H2H
Pafos
Aris
1
1
D
11.01.25
H2H
Aris
Pafos
1
0
L
29.09.24
H2H
Pafos
Aris
1
1
D
28.04.24
H2H
Aris
Pafos
1
1
D
16.03.24
H2H
Pafos
Aris
1
0
W
03.01.24
H2H
Pafos
Aris
1
0
W
17.09.23
H2H
Aris
Pafos
1
1
D
01.05.23
H2H
Aris
Pafos
2
1
L
12.03.23
H2H
Pafos
Aris
2
2
D
Last matches: Pafos
22.05.26
1.
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
2
0
W
06.05.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
0
2
L
18.04.26
1.
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
1
D
22.03.26
1.
Pafos
Apollon Limassol
1
1
D
07.03.26
1.
Pafos
Krasava Ypsonas
7
0
W
21.02.26
1.
Pafos
Anorthosis
0
0
D
08.02.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
2
4
L
04.02.26
1.
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
2
0
W
28.01.26
UEF
Pafos
Slavia Praha
4
1
W
25.01.26
1.
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
2
L
12.01.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Aradippou
2
0
W
05.12.25
1.
Pafos
Akritas
4
0
W
26.11.25
UEF
Pafos
Monaco
2
2
D
21.11.25
1.
Pafos
Aris
2
1
W
05.11.25
UEF
Pafos
Villarreal
1
0
W
02.11.25
1.
Pafos
AEL
1
0
W
17.10.25
1.
Pafos
Ethnikos Achna
4
0
W
30.09.25
UEF
Pafos
Bayern München
1
5
L
27.09.25
1.
Pafos
Olympiakos
2
1
W
24.09.25
1.
Pafos
Enosis
3
0
W
H2H at home: Pafos
10.05.26
H2H
Pafos
Aris
2
0
W
21.11.25
H2H
Pafos
Aris
2
1
W
04.05.25
H2H
Pafos
Aris
4
0
W
15.01.25
H2H
Pafos
Aris
1
1
D
29.09.24
H2H
Pafos
Aris
1
1
D
16.03.24
H2H
Pafos
Aris
1
0
W
03.01.24
H2H
Pafos
Aris
1
0
W
12.03.23
H2H
Pafos
Aris
2
2
D
Last matches: Aris
16.05.26
1.
Aris
Apollon Limassol
2
3
L
02.05.26
1.
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
0
3
L
25.04.26
1.
Aris
AEK Larnaca
0
2
L
05.04.26
1.
Aris
Apoel Nicosia
1
2
L
08.03.26
1.
Aris
Enosis
4
0
W
20.02.26
1.
Aris
Krasava Ypsonas
1
1
D
14.02.26
1.
Aris
Akritas
1
1
D
01.02.26
1.
Aris
AEL
1
2
L
17.01.26
1.
Aris
Ethnikos Achna
3
0
W
04.01.26
1.
Aris
Olympiakos
0
0
D
14.12.25
1.
Aris
Apollon Limassol
2
0
W
07.12.25
1.
Aris
Apoel Nicosia
0
2
L
21.11.25
1.
Aris
Pafos
1
2
L
26.10.25
1.
Aris
Anorthosis
1
1
D
05.10.25
1.
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
0
0
D
22.09.25
1.
Aris
AEK Larnaca
2
3
L
30.08.25
1.
Aris
Omonia Aradippou
1
0
W
14.08.25
UEF
Aris
AEK Athens FC
1
3
L
31.07.25
UEF
Aris
Puskas Academy
2
0
W
H2H away: Aris
10.05.26
H2H
Pafos
Aris
2
0
L
21.11.25
H2H
Pafos
Aris
2
1
L
04.05.25
H2H
Pafos
Aris
4
0
L
15.01.25
H2H
Pafos
Aris
1
1
D
29.09.24
H2H
Pafos
Aris
1
1
D
16.03.24
H2H
Pafos
Aris
1
0
L
03.01.24
H2H
Pafos
Aris
1
0
L
12.03.23
H2H
Pafos
Aris
2
2
D

Standings

1-division: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 19 4 3 63:17 46 61
W W D L W
2 26 16 5 5 49:22 27 53
W W D L L
3 26 16 5 5 36:22 14 53
D W D W W
4
Pafos Home
26 16 3 7 53:24 29 51
W W D D W
5 26 13 6 7 45:27 18 45
W L W W L
6
Aris Away
26 12 7 7 48:26 22 43
L W D D D
7 26 10 4 12 23:31 -8 34
W L W W D
8 26 10 3 13 31:38 -7 33
L L L W L
9 26 7 11 8 23:33 -10 32
D W W D D
10 26 8 4 14 26:36 -10 28
W L W D D
11 26 6 10 10 22:37 -15 28
L W D L D
12 26 7 5 14 23:48 -25 26
L L L W D
13 26 7 2 17 25:44 -19 23
L L L L W
14 26 0 1 25 5:67 -62 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)
Cyprus League (Relegation Group)