CYPRUS 1. DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Stelios Kyriakides Stadium
Referee: J. Karlsen
Pafos
Match Timeline
AEK Larnaca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
19'
Jaja
Pafos
🟨
35'
Jajá
Pafos
🟨
57'
Alexandre Brito
Pafos
🟨
61'
Petros Ioannou
AEK Larnaca
🔄
64'
Y. Gurfinkel ↔ J. Izquierdo
AEK Larnaca
🔄
64'
Miramon ↔ A. Cardero
AEK Larnaca
🔄
65'
Lele ↔ M. Bassouamina
Pafos
🔄
65'
Jaja ↔ Pepe
Pafos
🔄
74'
P. Ioannou ↔ C. Kyriakou
AEK Larnaca
🔄
80'
A. Brito ↔ Dani Silva
Pafos
🟨
82'
Jay Gorter
Pafos
🔄
84'
P. Pons ↔ R. Mudrazija
AEK Larnaca
🔄
84'
Ledes Gustavo ↔ G. Naoum
AEK Larnaca
90'
R. Mudrazija
AEK Larnaca

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 71.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
71.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Pafos Win 45.1%
Draw 14.7%
AEK Larnaca Win 40.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Pafos1.35
AEK Larnaca1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Pafos Pafos
WWDLW
71 GF / 42 GA
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca
WLDWL
69 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
1.53
0.98
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
19
BTTS Yes
22
19
Over 2.5
20
2.41
Shots on Goal
1.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Pafos Pafos 43 matches
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca 45 matches
Pafos Statistic AEK Larnaca
22 Wins 23
10 Draws 11
11 Losses 11
71 Goals For 69
42 Goals Against 40
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
0.98 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
19 BTTS Yes 22
32 Over 1.5 32
19 Over 2.5 20
11 Over 3.5 9
19 Clean Sheets 17
8 Failed To Score 9
2.41 Shots On Goal 1.38
6.61 Total Shots 4.07
2.83 Corners 1.57
29% Ball Possession 19.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring AEK Larnaca. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Pafos expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and AEK Larnaca in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AEK Larnaca having the stronger overall control.

Pafos Analysis

Pafos come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 53 points from 29 matches. The record of 16 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 54:27 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Anderson Silva (9 goals), J. Correia (9 goals), D. Quina (6 goals), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

AEK Larnaca Analysis

AEK Larnaca come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 57 points after 29 matches. They have recorded 17 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, with a 51:23 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Hrvoje Miličević (9 goals), Riad Bajić (9 goals), Enzo Cabrera (8 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Pafos won 3 times, AEK Larnaca won 5 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:17 from Pafos's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.3%)
Predicted formations: Pafos 3-4-1-2 / AEK Larnaca 5-4-1
H2H summary: Pafos wins 3, draws 7, AEK Larnaca wins 5
Stats
Pafos Pafos
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
4
6 Corner Kicks 6
15 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 2
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Goal 7
6 Shots off Goal 5
1 Blocked Shots 4
5 Shots insidebox 11
4 Shots outsidebox 5
6 Goalkeeper Saves 1
301 Total passes 446
249 Passes accurate 375
1.02 expected_goals 1.60
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Pafos
Formation
AEK Larnaca
J. Gorter
J. Gorter
D. Luckassen
D. Luckassen
A. Guessand
A. Guessand
N. Ioannou
N. Ioannou
O. Mimovic
O. Mimovic
I. Sunjic
I. Sunjic
A. Brito
A. Brito
K. Sema
K. Sema
Jaja
Jaja
V. Dragomir
V. Dragomir
Lele
Lele
Z. Alomerovic
Z. Alomerovic
P. Ioannou
P. Ioannou
G. Ekpolo
G. Ekpolo
H. Milicevic
H. Milicevic
Y. Gurfinkel
Y. Gurfinkel
Ledes Gustavo
Ledes Gustavo
P. Pons
P. Pons
Miramon
Miramon
M. Rohden
M. Rohden
D. Ivanovic
D. Ivanovic
R. Bajic
R. Bajic
Pafos 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
J. Gorter
🟨 82'
G
23
D. Luckassen
D
19
A. Guessand
D
14
N. Ioannou
D
21
O. Mimovic
M
26
I. Sunjic
M
50
A. Brito
↓ 80' 🟨 57'
M
12
K. Sema
M
11
Jaja
⚽ 19' ↓ 65' 🟨 35'
M
30
V. Dragomir
M
18
Lele
↓ 65'
F
Substitutes
99
A. Papadoudis
G
82
P. Petrou
G
2
K. Pileas
D
71
G. Skafi
D
7
Bruno
D
20
W. Odefalk
M
42
G. Michael
F
80
Dani Silva
↑ 80'
M
8
D. Quina
M
9
M. Bassouamina
↑ 65'
F
88
Pepe
↑ 65'
M
33
Anderson Silva
F
AEK Larnaca 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Z. Alomerovic
G
2
P. Ioannou
↓ 74' 🟨 61'
D
22
G. Ekpolo
D
15
H. Milicevic
D
13
Y. Gurfinkel
↓ 64'
D
7
Ledes Gustavo
↓ 84'
M
17
P. Pons
↓ 84'
M
21
Miramon
↓ 64'
M
8
M. Rohden
M
9
D. Ivanovic
M
11
R. Bajic
F
Substitutes
51
A. Paraskevas
G
12
K. Komar
G
41
Mathias Gonzalez
14
A. Garcia
D
23
J. Izquierdo
↑ 64'
D
25
C. Kyriakou
↑ 74'
D
32
R. Mudrazija
⚽ 90' ↑ 84'
M
29
G. Naoum
↑ 84'
M
36
C. Loukaidis
M
86
A. Cardero
↑ 64'
M
Last matches: Pafos
23.07.26
UEF
Pafos
HNK Hajduk Split
0
2
L
16.07.26
Fri
Pafos
Slovan Bratislava
2
3
L
12.07.26
Fri
Pafos
Jagiellonia
0
1
L
08.07.26
Fri
Pafos
FK Jablonec
0
0
D
03.07.26
Fri
Pafos
Cracovia Krakow
2
1
W
22.05.26
1.
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
2
0
W
16.05.26
1.
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
2
2
D
10.05.26
1.
Pafos
Aris
2
0
W
06.05.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
0
2
L
03.05.26
1.
Pafos
Apollon Limassol
1
2
L
26.04.26
1.
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
3
3
D
14.04.26
1.
Pafos
Aris
1
1
D
04.04.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
0
2
L
22.03.26
1.
Pafos
Apollon Limassol
1
1
D
14.03.26
1.
Pafos
Akritas
4
0
W
07.03.26
1.
Pafos
Krasava Ypsonas
7
0
W
01.03.26
1.
Pafos
Aris
2
2
D
21.02.26
1.
Pafos
Anorthosis
0
0
D
15.02.26
1.
Pafos
AEL
1
0
W
08.02.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
2
4
L
Last matches: AEK Larnaca
23.07.26
UEF
AEK Larnaca
Beitar Jerusalem
0
1
L
16.07.26
Fri
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
0
0
D
10.07.26
Fri
AEK Larnaca
Ajax
0
1
L
07.07.26
Fri
AEK Larnaca
PAOK
2
3
L
04.07.26
Fri
AEK Larnaca
Helmond Sport
2
1
W
22.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Aris
4
3
W
16.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
2
D
10.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
1
1
D
06.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
1
0
W
03.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
0
1
L
25.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Aris
2
0
W
14.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
0
2
L
05.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
1
1
D
22.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
1
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
AEK Larnaca
Crystal Palace
1
2
L
16.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Ethnikos Achna
2
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
AEK Larnaca
Crystal Palace
0
0
D
06.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Akritas
3
0
W
01.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Olympiakos
1
1
D
22.02.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Aradippou
1
2
L
H2H: Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
16.05.26
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
2
D
18.04.26
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
1
D
25.01.26
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
2
L
30.10.25
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
1
D
05.10.25
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
4
W
24.05.25
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
0
0
D
18.05.25
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
2
0
W
13.04.25
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
2
D
22.12.24
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
0
1
L
01.09.24
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
0
2
W
06.04.24
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
3
0
L
25.02.24
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
0
1
L
22.01.24
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
1
0
L
07.10.23
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
0
0
D
21.05.23
H2H
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
1
1
D
Last matches: Pafos
22.05.26
1.
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
2
0
W
10.05.26
1.
Pafos
Aris
2
0
W
06.05.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
0
2
L
22.03.26
1.
Pafos
Apollon Limassol
1
1
D
07.03.26
1.
Pafos
Krasava Ypsonas
7
0
W
21.02.26
1.
Pafos
Anorthosis
0
0
D
08.02.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
2
4
L
04.02.26
1.
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
2
0
W
28.01.26
UEF
Pafos
Slavia Praha
4
1
W
25.01.26
1.
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
2
L
12.01.26
1.
Pafos
Omonia Aradippou
2
0
W
05.12.25
1.
Pafos
Akritas
4
0
W
26.11.25
UEF
Pafos
Monaco
2
2
D
21.11.25
1.
Pafos
Aris
2
1
W
05.11.25
UEF
Pafos
Villarreal
1
0
W
02.11.25
1.
Pafos
AEL
1
0
W
17.10.25
1.
Pafos
Ethnikos Achna
4
0
W
30.09.25
UEF
Pafos
Bayern München
1
5
L
27.09.25
1.
Pafos
Olympiakos
2
1
W
24.09.25
1.
Pafos
Enosis
3
0
W
H2H at home: Pafos
18.04.26
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
1
D
25.01.26
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
2
L
30.10.25
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
1
D
18.05.25
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
2
0
W
22.12.24
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
0
1
L
25.02.24
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
0
1
L
07.10.23
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
0
0
D
Last matches: AEK Larnaca
16.07.26
Fri
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
0
0
D
10.07.26
Fri
AEK Larnaca
Ajax
0
1
L
07.07.26
Fri
AEK Larnaca
PAOK
2
3
L
04.07.26
Fri
AEK Larnaca
Helmond Sport
2
1
W
22.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Aris
4
3
W
10.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
1
1
D
03.05.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
0
1
L
05.04.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
1
1
D
16.03.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Ethnikos Achna
2
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
AEK Larnaca
Crystal Palace
0
0
D
22.02.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Aradippou
1
2
L
08.02.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
2
1
W
25.01.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
2
1
W
10.01.26
1.
AEK Larnaca
Aris
0
1
L
22.12.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
AEL
1
0
W
11.12.25
UEF
AEK Larnaca
BK Hacken
1
1
D
01.12.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
Akritas
1
1
D
27.11.25
UEF
AEK Larnaca
HNK Rijeka
0
0
D
22.11.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
Olympiakos
4
1
W
02.11.25
1.
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
2
1
W
H2H away: AEK Larnaca
18.04.26
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
1
D
25.01.26
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
2
W
30.10.25
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
1
1
D
18.05.25
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
2
0
L
22.12.24
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
0
1
W
25.02.24
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
0
1
W
07.10.23
H2H
Pafos
AEK Larnaca
0
0
D

Standings

1-division: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 19 4 3 63:17 46 61
W W D L W
2 26 16 5 5 49:22 27 53
W W D L L
3 26 16 5 5 36:22 14 53
D W D W W
4
Pafos Home
26 16 3 7 53:24 29 51
W W D D W
5 26 13 6 7 45:27 18 45
W L W W L
6 26 12 7 7 48:26 22 43
L W D D D
7 26 10 4 12 23:31 -8 34
W L W W D
8 26 10 3 13 31:38 -7 33
L L L W L
9 26 7 11 8 23:33 -10 32
D W W D D
10 26 8 4 14 26:36 -10 28
W L W D D
11 26 6 10 10 22:37 -15 28
L W D L D
12 26 7 5 14 23:48 -25 26
L L L W D
13 26 7 2 17 25:44 -19 23
L L L L W
14 26 0 1 25 5:67 -62 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)
Cyprus League (Relegation Group)