SPAIN › LA LIGA
12.05.2026 19:30
Estadio El Sadar
Referee: J. Guzman
Osasuna
Match Timeline
Atletico Madrid
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
13'
Antoine Griezmann
Atletico Madrid
🟨
14'
Javi Galán
Osasuna
⚽
15'
A. Lookman
Atletico Madrid
🔄
18'
R. Mendoza ↔ R. Le Normand
Atletico Madrid
🟨
30'
Rubén García
Osasuna
🔄
37'
R. Moro ↔ K. Barja
Osasuna
🟨
45+9'
Ante Budimir
Osasuna
VAR
45+3'
Ante Budimir
Osasuna
🔄
46'
T. Almada ↔ A. Sorloth
Atletico Madrid
🟨
52'
Marcos Llorente
Atletico Madrid
🟨
57'
Kike Barja
Osasuna
🟨
57'
Koke
Atletico Madrid
🟨
59'
Marc Pubill
Atletico Madrid
🔄
60'
R. Garcia ↔ R. Garcia
Osasuna
🔄
60'
J. Galan ↔ A. Bretones
Osasuna
⚽
71'
A. Sorloth · Assist: M. Llorente
Atletico Madrid
🔄
72'
L. Torro ↔ A. Oroz
Osasuna
🔄
72'
M. Gomez ↔ A. Osambela
Osasuna
🟨
79'
Marcos Llorente
Atletico Madrid
🟥
79'
Marcos Llorente
Atletico Madrid
🔄
82'
A. Lookman ↔ C. Lenglet
Atletico Madrid
🟨
85'
Alejandro Catena
Osasuna
🟨
85'
Robin Le Normand
Atletico Madrid
🟨
90+2'
Enzo Boyomo
Osasuna
⚽
90'
K. Barja · Assist: R. Garcia
Osasuna

Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 29.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 47.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
29.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
47.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Osasuna Win 35.3%
Draw 12.2%
Atletico Madrid Win 52.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Osasuna1.41
Atletico Madrid1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Osasuna Osasuna
WWDLW
58 GF / 52 GA
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
WLDWL
108 GF / 73 GA
Key Stats
1.49
Average Goals Scored
1.89
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
22
BTTS Yes
33
21
Over 2.5
34
4.11
Shots on Goal
5.23

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Osasuna Osasuna 39 matches
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 57 matches
Osasuna Statistic Atletico Madrid
14 Wins 30
10 Draws 10
15 Losses 17
58 Goals For 108
52 Goals Against 73
1.49 Avg Goals Scored 1.89
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
22 BTTS Yes 33
28 Over 1.5 46
21 Over 2.5 34
14 Over 3.5 22
8 Clean Sheets 17
11 Failed To Score 8
4.11 Shots On Goal 5.23
11.71 Total Shots 13.53
3.68 Corners 5.91
46.6% Ball Possession 52.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Atletico Madrid's more proactive style and Osasuna's more cautious structure. Atletico Madrid seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Atletico Madrid. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Osasuna expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico Madrid in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Madrid having the stronger overall control. Atletico Madrid carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 63 points while Osasuna sit 11 on 42, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Osasuna Analysis

With 42 points from 35 games and a place of 11, Osasuna still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 11 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 42:45 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Budimir (17 goals), R. Garcia (7 goals), Victor Muñoz (5 goals), with creative support from R. Garcia (5 assists), J. Moncayola (4 assists), Victor Muñoz (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 9 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with V. Munoz, S. Herrera unavailable.

Atletico Madrid Analysis

Atletico Madrid approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 4 with 63 points from 35 matches. Their record of 19 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 58:38, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Sorloth (12 goals), J. Alvarez (8 goals), A. Griezmann (7 goals), with creative support from G. Simeone (6 assists), J. Alvarez (4 assists), Marcos Llorente (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with P. Barrios, J. Cardoso, J. M. Gimenez, A. Baena unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Osasuna won 2 times, Atletico Madrid won 13 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:30 from Osasuna's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.8%)
Predicted formations: Osasuna 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
Missing players: Osasuna 2, Atletico Madrid 8
H2H summary: Osasuna wins 2, draws 0, Atletico Madrid wins 13

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2