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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA B
12.10.2026 20:30
Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Orsomarso vs Popayan Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 66.1%
Odds 3.87
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.93
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.25
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
66.1%
3.87 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.93 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.25 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.18 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
15.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Orsomarso Win 19.8%
Draw 14.1%
Popayan Win 66.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orsomarso0.99
Popayan1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orsomarso Orsomarso
WWDLW
20 GF / 28 GA
Popayan Popayan
WLDWL
33 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
0.77
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
7
BTTS Yes
17
6
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orsomarso Orsomarso 26 matches
Popayan Popayan 26 matches
Orsomarso Statistic Popayan
6 Wins 7
9 Draws 10
11 Losses 9
20 Goals For 33
28 Goals Against 34
0.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
7 BTTS Yes 17
14 Over 1.5 21
6 Over 2.5 12
4 Over 3.5 6
10 Clean Sheets 5
14 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Popayan. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Popayan having the stronger overall control. Popayan look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Orsomarso Analysis

Orsomarso approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 27 points from 26 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 9 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 20:28 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Popayan Analysis

Popayan sit 12 with 30 points after 25 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses, while the 32:33 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Orsomarso won 1 times, Popayan won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:7 from Orsomarso's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.9%)
H2H summary: Orsomarso wins 1, draws 2, Popayan wins 2

Standings

Primera B: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 17 9 7 41:29 12 60
D L W W W
2 35 15 12 8 47:32 15 57
D D D W D
3 32 16 9 7 33:21 12 57
W W L L D
4 35 15 11 9 55:41 14 56
D L D D L
5 32 15 8 9 45:31 14 53
D W D W L
6 33 12 10 11 33:27 6 46
D W D W D
7 27 11 10 6 29:21 8 43
D W W L W
8 33 9 12 12 28:35 -7 39
D D L W D
9 27 9 9 9 33:30 3 36
L W W W W
10 27 9 8 10 30:34 -4 35
D L L L W
11 32 9 8 15 37:43 -6 35
D L L L L
12 26 7 10 9 33:34 -1 31
D W W W W
13 26 6 9 11 20:28 -8 27
L D L D L
14 27 5 9 13 27:42 -15 24
D L L L W
15 27 4 10 13 23:41 -18 22
W L D D L
16 26 4 8 14 16:41 -25 20
D L L D L
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)