🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
13.05.2026 23:30
Exploria Stadium
Referee: Sergiy Boyko, Ukraine
Orlando City SC
Match Timeline
Philadelphia Union
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
Andrew Rick
Philadelphia Union
19'
M. Ojeda
Orlando City SC
27'
G. Dorsey
Orlando City SC
🔄
43'
J. Lukic ↔ C. Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
🟨
51'
Tiago Souza
Orlando City SC
54'
M. Iloski · Assist: N. Harriel
Philadelphia Union
🟨
58'
Danley Jean Jacques
Philadelphia Union
🟨
60'
Jeremy Rafanello
Philadelphia Union
🔄
63'
E. Atuesta ↔ Luis Otavio
Orlando City SC
🔄
64'
D. Brekalo ↔ A. Gomez
Orlando City SC
🔄
64'
Tiago ↔ T. Spicer
Orlando City SC
🔄
65'
I. Vassilev ↔ A. Anello
Philadelphia Union
🔄
70'
J. Ellis ↔ D. McGuire
Orlando City SC
72'
D. McGuire · Assist: T. Spicer
Orlando City SC
🔄
75'
B. Damiani ↔ S. Korzeniowski
Philadelphia Union
🔄
75'
M. Iloski ↔ E. Alladoh
Philadelphia Union
75'
C. Sullivan · Assist: B. Damiani
Philadelphia Union
79'
B. Bender · Assist: S. Korzeniowski
Philadelphia Union
🔄
81'
G. Dorsey ↔ M. Pasalic
Orlando City SC
90'
M. Ojeda · Assist: A. Gomez
Orlando City SC

Orlando City SC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 79.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 25.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
79.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
25.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Orlando City SC Win 47.3%
Draw 20.3%
Philadelphia Union Win 32.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orlando City SC1.4
Philadelphia Union2.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WWDLW
23 GF / 44 GA
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WLDWL
32 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
1.52
2.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
11
BTTS Yes
11
13
Over 2.5
12
4.33
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 16 matches
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 21 matches
Orlando City SC Statistic Philadelphia Union
4 Wins 5
2 Draws 5
10 Losses 11
23 Goals For 32
44 Goals Against 28
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
2.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
11 BTTS Yes 11
15 Over 1.5 16
13 Over 2.5 12
10 Over 3.5 5
0 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 6
4.33 Shots On Goal 4
10.75 Total Shots 13.75
3.75 Corners 5.94
44.3% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Orlando City SC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Orlando City SC expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Philadelphia Union in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Philadelphia Union having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Philadelphia Union.

Orlando City SC Analysis

Orlando City SC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 10 points from 12 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 1 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 16:34 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Ojeda (7 goals), M. Pasalic (2 goals), Tyrese Spicer (2 goals), with creative support from I. Angulo (3 assists), J. Ellis (2 assists), A. Gomez (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without J. Gerbet, M. Pasalic, N. Miller, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

With 6 points from 12 games and a place of 15, Philadelphia Union still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 10:19, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Danley Jean Jacques (2 goals), M. Iloski (2 goals), N. Harriel (2 goals), with creative support from A. Bedoya (2 assists), M. Iloski (1 assists), C. Sullivan (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Q. Sullivan, J. Sery Larsen, J. Bueno unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Orlando City SC won 6 times, Philadelphia Union won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:30 from Orlando City SC's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 13 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.7%)
Predicted formations: Orlando City SC 5-3-2 / Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
Missing players: Orlando City SC 3, Philadelphia Union 5
H2H summary: Orlando City SC wins 6, draws 4, Philadelphia Union wins 5

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 9 6 10 46:39 7 33
W W W W D
8 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
9 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)