🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
25.07.2026 23:30
Exploria Stadium
Referee: R. Touchan
Orlando City SC
Match Timeline
Nashville SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Tiago
Orlando City SC
🔄
46'
A. Muyl ↔ A. Qasem
Nashville SC
🔄
53'
Tiago ↔ T. Spicer
Orlando City SC
🔄
65'
B. Acosta ↔ E. Tagseth
Nashville SC
🔄
65'
S. Mohammed ↔ J. Knight
Nashville SC
🔄
69'
D. Brekalo ↔ Iago Teodoro
Orlando City SC
🔄
70'
B. Rhein ↔ A. Gomez
Orlando City SC
72'
T. Spicer · Assist: J. Ellis
Orlando City SC
🔄
76'
A. Najar ↔ D. Lovitz
Nashville SC
🔄
85'
Luis Otavio ↔ W. Cartagena
Orlando City SC
🔄
85'
J. Ellis ↔ H. Sarajian
Orlando City SC
🔄
90+5'
M. Corcoran ↔ W. Pacius
Nashville SC

Orlando City SC vs Nashville SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 53.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
53.6%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Orlando City SC Win 35.8%
Draw 10.7%
Nashville SC Win 53.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orlando City SC1.29
Nashville SC2.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WWDLW
34 GF / 54 GA
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WLDWL
49 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
1.75
2.7
Average Goals Conceded
0.68
14
BTTS Yes
11
16
Over 2.5
13
4.88
Shots on Goal
4.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 20 matches
Nashville SC Nashville SC 28 matches
Orlando City SC Statistic Nashville SC
6 Wins 17
3 Draws 7
11 Losses 4
34 Goals For 49
54 Goals Against 19
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
2.7 Avg Goals Conceded 0.68
14 BTTS Yes 11
19 Over 1.5 16
16 Over 2.5 13
13 Over 3.5 9
1 Clean Sheets 14
5 Failed To Score 7
4.88 Shots On Goal 4.38
11.38 Total Shots 11.25
3.88 Corners 4.58
45.3% Ball Possession 52.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Nashville SC's more proactive style and Orlando City SC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nashville SC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Orlando City SC expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Nashville SC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nashville SC having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nashville SC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 33 points while Orlando City SC sit 13 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Orlando City SC Analysis

So far, Orlando City SC have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 14 points from 15 matches. The record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 23:44 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Martín Ojeda (9 goals), Tyrese Spicer (2 goals), Griffin Dorsey (2 goals), with creative support from Adrián Marín (3 assists), Justin Ellis (2 assists), Iván Angulo (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nashville SC Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 33 points from 14 games, Nashville SC bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 10 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, with a 31:11 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Hany Mukhtar (4 goals), Warren Madrigal (3 goals), Bryan Acosta (2 goals), with creative support from Hany Mukhtar (4 assists), Cristian Espinoza (4 assists), Andy Najar (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Orlando City SC won 7 times, Nashville SC won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:19 from Orlando City SC's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.08 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.3%)
Predicted formations: Orlando City SC 3-4-3 / Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Orlando City SC 3, Nashville SC 4
H2H summary: Orlando City SC wins 7, draws 1, Nashville SC wins 4

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 26 12 10 4 63:48 15 46
D D D D W
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)