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17.10.2026 23:30
Exploria Stadium
Referee: P. Lauziere
Orlando City SC
Match Timeline
DC United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
15'
A. Griezmann · Assist: M. Ojeda
Orlando City SC
⚽
22'
M. Ojeda · Assist: A. Griezmann
Orlando City SC
🟨
38'
Luis Otávio
Orlando City SC
⚽
45'
T. Baribo
DC United
🔄
46'
W. Cartagena ↔ J. Gerbet
Orlando City SC
🔄
46'
J. Stroud ↔ J. Hopkins
DC United
⚽
50'
A. Griezmann
Orlando City SC
🔄
65'
B. Servania ↔ O. Avilez
DC United
🔄
70'
E. Atuesta ↔ A. Gomez
Orlando City SC
🔄
70'
Luis Otavio ↔ B. Ojeda
Orlando City SC
🔄
70'
D. Dike ↔ J. Ellis
Orlando City SC
🟨
77'
Kimito Nono
DC United
🔄
78'
S. Hefti ↔ M. Peltola
DC United
🔄
78'
Peglow ↔ N. Ordaz
DC United
🟨
82'
Jackson Hopkins
DC United
🔄
86'
M. Ojeda ↔ M. Pasalic
Orlando City SC
🟨
89'
Tai Baribo
DC United
⚽
90'
M. Pasalic · Assist: J. Ellis
Orlando City SC

Orlando City SC vs DC United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Orlando City SC Win 62.9%
Draw 9.2%
DC United Win 27.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orlando City SC1.76
DC United1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
D W L L W
13 GF / 13 GA
DC United DC United
W L L D L
6 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.85
Average Goals Scored
1.16
2.39
Average Goals Conceded
1.63
24
BTTS Yes
18
26
Over 2.5
18
4.97
Shots on Goal
4.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 33 matches
DC United DC United 32 matches
Orlando City SC Statistic DC United
12 Wins 7
6 Draws 14
15 Losses 11
61 Goals For 37
79 Goals Against 52
1.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
2.39 Avg Goals Conceded 1.63
24 BTTS Yes 18
30 Over 1.5 22
26 Over 2.5 18
20 Over 3.5 11
4 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 12
4.97 Shots On Goal 4.43
12.45 Total Shots 12.93
4.1 Corners 4.86
49.6% Ball Possession 38.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Orlando City SC expected to line up in 4-2-2-2 and DC United in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward DC United having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring DC United.

Orlando City SC Analysis

Orlando City SC are currently 7 in the standings with 34 points from 27 matches. The record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 48:64 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Ojeda (11 goals), A. Griezmann (6 goals), I. Angulo (5 goals), with creative support from Justin Ellis (7 assists), A. Griezmann (3 assists), E. Atuesta (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

DC United Analysis

DC United sit 11 with 30 points after 26 league matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 12 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 34:42 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Tai Baribo (9 goals), Louis Munteanu (5 goals), L. Bartlett (4 goals), with creative support from K. Kurokawa (6 assists), Peglow (2 assists), S. Hefti (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Orlando City SC won 5 times, DC United won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:27 from Orlando City SC's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.8%)
Predicted formations: Orlando City SC 4-2-2-2 / DC United 4-4-2
Missing players: Orlando City SC 2, DC United 4
H2H summary: Orlando City SC wins 5, draws 3, DC United wins 7

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 23 8 3 71:25 46 77
W W D W D
2 34 16 12 6 80:59 21 60
D W D L W
3 34 18 4 12 55:47 8 58
L L W W W
4 34 16 7 11 64:54 10 55
L W D W L
5 34 15 9 10 66:51 15 54
D W W L D
6 34 14 8 12 66:52 14 50
W L D L D
7 34 14 5 15 59:52 7 47
W W W W W
8 34 13 7 14 63:78 -15 46
W L D D W
9 34 12 10 12 67:75 -8 46
L W D W W
10 34 12 6 16 48:62 -14 42
W L L W L
11 34 10 12 12 49:45 4 42
W D W D D
12 34 9 12 13 52:67 -15 39
L L W L W
13 34 9 6 19 43:60 -17 33
L W L L L
14 34 7 12 15 39:61 -22 33
L L L L L
15 34 6 8 20 37:69 -32 26
L D L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)