🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
22.04.2026 23:30
Exploria Stadium
Referee: Filip Dujic, USA
Orlando City SC
Match Timeline
Charlotte
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
Luis Otavio · Assist: Z. Taifi
Orlando City SC
🟨
24'
Iván Angulo
Orlando City SC
33'
M. Agyemang · Assist: P. Biel
Charlotte
🟨
41'
Luis Otávio
Orlando City SC
🟨
41'
Ashley Westwood
Charlotte
🟨
45+2'
Martín Ojeda
Orlando City SC
49'
M. Ojeda · Assist: J. Ellis
Orlando City SC
🟨
59'
Harry Toffolo
Charlotte
61'
M. Ojeda
Orlando City SC
🟨
65'
Tiago Souza
Orlando City SC
🔄
73'
I. Toklomati ↔ A. Goodwin
Charlotte
🔄
73'
R. Aloko ↔ K. A. Calderon Vargas
Charlotte
🔄
73'
L. de la Torre ↔ B. Bronico
Charlotte
🔄
74'
Tiago ↔ T. Reid-Brown
Orlando City SC
🔄
78'
Z. Taifi ↔ I. Gomez
Orlando City SC
🟨
79'
Ignacio Gómez
Orlando City SC
🔄
80'
H. Toffolo ↔ D. Schnegg
Charlotte
🔄
80'
A. Westwood ↔ D. Diani
Charlotte
87'
I. Gomez · Assist: I. Angulo
Orlando City SC
🔄
90+3'
Luis Otavio ↔ C. Guske
Orlando City SC
🔄
90+3'
J. Ellis ↔ B. Rhein
Orlando City SC
🔄
90+3'
I. Angulo ↔ H. Sarajian
Orlando City SC

Orlando City SC vs Charlotte Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 63.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
63.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.6%
-
Probability Distribution
Orlando City SC Win 22.9%
Draw 13.9%
Charlotte Win 63.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orlando City SC1.08
Charlotte2.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WWDLW
13 GF / 35 GA
Charlotte Charlotte
WLDWL
21 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.75
2.92
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
8
BTTS Yes
8
10
Over 2.5
8
3.63
Shots on Goal
5.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 12 matches
Charlotte Charlotte 12 matches
Orlando City SC Statistic Charlotte
2 Wins 7
2 Draws 2
8 Losses 3
13 Goals For 21
35 Goals Against 13
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
2.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
8 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 9
10 Over 2.5 8
7 Over 3.5 3
0 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 3
3.63 Shots On Goal 5.38
11.13 Total Shots 10.88
3.75 Corners 4.13
43.1% Ball Possession 48.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Charlotte's more proactive style and Orlando City SC's more cautious structure. Orlando City SC appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Charlotte. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Charlotte carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 14 points while Orlando City SC sit 15 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Charlotte. Orlando City SC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Orlando City SC Analysis

Orlando City SC sit 15 with 4 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 6:24 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Ojeda (2 goals), M. Pasalic (2 goals), D. McGuire (1 goals), with creative support from I. Angulo (2 assists), Tiago (1 assists), G. Dorsey (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without W. Cartagena, J. Gerbet, D. McGuire, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

Charlotte Analysis

Charlotte come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 14 points after 8 matches. With 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 13:9, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by P. Biel (4 goals), A. Goodwin (3 goals), Idan Toklomati Jorno (3 goals), with creative support from P. Biel (2 assists), L. Abada (2 assists), Idan Toklomati Jorno (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Orlando City SC won 6 times, Charlotte won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:13 from Orlando City SC's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.69 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.1%)
Predicted formations: Orlando City SC 4-2-3-1 / Charlotte 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Orlando City SC 7, Charlotte 2
H2H summary: Orlando City SC wins 6, draws 5, Charlotte wins 2

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 16 4 2 47:17 30 52
W W W W D
2 22 12 6 4 56:41 15 42
W L D L D
3 21 11 4 6 39:28 11 37
D D W W W
4 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W D W L L
5 22 10 5 7 40:32 8 35
W W D W L
6 22 8 7 7 49:51 -2 31
L D W D W
7 22 7 7 8 36:31 5 28
D D L L D
8 22 7 5 10 32:46 -14 26
L D L L W
9 22 7 4 11 37:54 -17 25
D W L D L
10 22 5 10 7 32:38 -6 25
D W D W D
11 22 5 10 7 28:36 -8 25
D L L D D
12 22 6 6 10 34:39 -5 24
W D D W W
13 22 6 3 13 25:38 -13 21
L W W W L
14 22 5 6 11 30:46 -16 21
L D W D D
15 22 5 5 12 31:39 -8 20
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)