ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio 9 de Mayo
Referee: Franklin Andres Congo Viteri, Ecuador
Orense SC
Match Timeline
Leones del Norte
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
22'
Jordan Morán
Leones del Norte
VAR
31'
Brian Kreiman
Leones del Norte
🟨
36'
Valentín Burgoa
Orense SC
🟨
45+7'
Erick Zambrano
Orense SC
🟨
45+5'
Segundo Portocarrero
Leones del Norte
55'
V. Burgoa · Assist: A. Herrera
Orense SC
🔄
62'
T. Coppo ↔ J. Anangono
Leones del Norte
🔄
62'
A. Aguas ↔ D. Pazmino
Leones del Norte
🔄
62'
Caicedo Nestor ↔ J. Mairongo
Leones del Norte
VAR
76'
Agustin Herrera
Orense SC
🟨
76'
Nicolás Monserrat
Leones del Norte
79'
Agustin Herrera
Orense SC
79'
A. Herrera
Orense SC
🔄
80'
A. Herrera ↔ M. Bermudez
Orense SC
🟨
82'
Michael Bermúdez
Orense SC
🔄
85'
V. Burgoa ↔ B. Vinan
Orense SC
🔄
85'
S. Vasquez ↔ E. Pluas
Orense SC
🔄
85'
E. Griffa ↔ J. Cabeza
Leones del Norte
🔄
86'
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez ↔ D. Armas
Orense SC
🔄
88'
R. Jaramilo ↔ G. Rostagno
Orense SC
🟨
90+9'
Erick Plúas
Orense SC
VAR
90+3'
Michael Bermúdez
Orense SC
🟨
90+3'
Leonel Nazareno
Leones del Norte
🔄
90+3'
C. Solano ↔ M. De La Cruz
Leones del Norte

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
74.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Orense SC Win 88.5%
Draw 0%
Leones del Norte Win 11.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orense SC1.25
Leones del Norte1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orense SC Orense SC
WWDLW
17 GF / 17 GA
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WLDWL
10 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
0.83
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1
10
BTTS Yes
4
7
Over 2.5
4
3.83
Shots on Goal
2.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orense SC Orense SC 12 matches
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 12 matches
Orense SC Statistic Leones del Norte
4 Wins 3
4 Draws 4
4 Losses 5
17 Goals For 10
17 Goals Against 12
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1
10 BTTS Yes 4
11 Over 1.5 8
7 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 0
1 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 5
3.83 Shots On Goal 2.83
9.67 Total Shots 8.92
3.25 Corners 3.58
46.3% Ball Possession 42.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Leones del Norte. Leones del Norte arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Orense SC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Leones del Norte in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leones del Norte having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Orense SC Analysis

Orense SC are currently 10 in the standings with 16 points from 12 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 17:17 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Agustin Herrera (5 goals), A. Mena (2 goals), E. S. Zambrano Pesantez (2 goals), with creative support from E. S. Zambrano Pesantez (3 assists), P. Velasco (2 assists), V. Burgoa (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Leones del Norte Analysis

Leones del Norte sit 13 with 13 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 10:12, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Anangono (3 goals), E. Griffa (2 goals), E. Pepinos (2 goals), with creative support from E. Pepinos (1 assists), Segundo Portocarrero (1 assists), A. Aguas (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Orense SC won 1 times, Leones del Norte won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Orense SC's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Orense SC 4-2-3-1 / Leones del Norte 4-4-2
H2H summary: Orense SC wins 1, draws 0, Leones del Norte wins 1
Stats
Orense SC Orense SC
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
Shots on Goal
10
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
2
7 Corner Kicks 4
23 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 5
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Goal 1
4 Shots off Goal 3
4 Blocked Shots 2
12 Shots insidebox 2
6 Shots outsidebox 4
1 Goalkeeper Saves 7
456 Total passes 264
381 Passes accurate 201
3.68 expected_goals 0.37
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Orense SC
Formation
Leones del Norte
R. Silva
R. Silva
P. Velasco
P. Velasco
A. Lorenzo
A. Lorenzo
S. Quinonez
S. Quinonez
B. Caicedo
B. Caicedo
S. Vasquez
S. Vasquez
R. Jaramilo
R. Jaramilo
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
A. Mena
A. Mena
V. Burgoa
V. Burgoa
A. Herrera
⚽ 2 🎯
A. Herrera
L. Nazareno
L. Nazareno
J. Moran
J. Moran
N. Monserrat
N. Monserrat
B. Kreiman
B. Kreiman
A. Aguas
A. Aguas
T. Coppo
T. Coppo
C. Velez
C. Velez
E. Griffa
E. Griffa
S. Portocarrero
S. Portocarrero
Caicedo Nestor
Caicedo Nestor
C. Solano
C. Solano
Orense SC 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
12
R. Silva
G
31
P. Velasco
D
5
A. Lorenzo
D
4
S. Quinonez
D
15
B. Caicedo
D
7
S. Vasquez
↓ 85'
M
25
R. Jaramilo
↓ 88'
M
54
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
↓ 86' 🟨 45+7'
M
13
A. Mena
M
10
V. Burgoa
⚽ 55' ↓ 85' 🟨 36'
M
11
A. Herrera
⚽ 79' ⚽ 79' 🎯 55' ↓ 80'
F
Substitutes
22
J. Ortiz
G
6
S. Callegari
D
21
G. Rostagno
↑ 88'
M
17
E. Caicedo
F
9
P. Charpentier
F
8
D. Armas
↑ 86'
M
77
B. Vinan
↑ 85'
D
14
E. Pluas
↑ 85' 🟨 90+9'
M
2
B. Quinonez
D
19
M. Bermudez
↑ 80'
51
C. Ortiz
53
L. Garces
F
Leones del Norte 3-5-2
Starting XI
45
L. Nazareno
🟨 90+3'
G
2
J. Moran
23
N. Monserrat
🟨 76'
D
25
B. Kreiman
D
32
A. Aguas
↓ 62'
5
T. Coppo
↓ 62'
M
8
C. Velez
M
6
E. Griffa
↓ 85'
M
34
S. Portocarrero
🟨 45+5'
M
27
Caicedo Nestor
↓ 62'
F
99
C. Solano
↓ 90+3'
F
Substitutes
24
J. L. Angulo
G
40
J. Anangono
↑ 62'
70
D. Pazmino
↑ 62'
M
10
A. Mansilla
F
50
M. Caicedo
D
11
M. Caramuto
M
3
F. Vargas
D
44
K. Mina
16
M. De La Cruz
↑ 90+3'
D
17
J. Mairongo
↑ 62'
M
13
J. Cabeza
↑ 85'
M
33
A. Chacon
M
Last matches: Orense SC
17.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Emelec
0
2
L
11.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Manta FC
0
0
D
07.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
01.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
LDU de Quito
0
3
L
23.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
19.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Macara
2
1
W
26.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
22.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
3
1
W
19.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
0
0
D
12.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Libertad
2
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
24.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
3
L
19.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
3
2
W
15.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Emelec
1
2
L
10.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Manta FC
1
1
D
28.02.26
Lig
Orense SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Orense SC
LDU de Quito
1
2
L
Last matches: Leones del Norte
15.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
10.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
0
3
L
28.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
0
0
D
H2H: Orense SC vs Leones del Norte
09.05.26
H2H
Orense SC
Leones del Norte
2
0
W
22.08.25
H2H
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
1
0
L
Last matches: Orense SC
17.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Emelec
0
2
L
07.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
23.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
19.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
0
0
D
12.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Libertad
2
1
W
19.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
3
2
W
10.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Manta FC
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Orense SC
LDU de Quito
1
2
L
H2H at home: Orense SC
09.05.26
H2H
Orense SC
Leones del Norte
2
0
W
Last matches: Leones del Norte
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
0
3
L
22.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
0
0
D
H2H away: Leones del Norte
09.05.26
H2H
Orense SC
Leones del Norte
2
0
L

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 15 1 3 43:19 24 46
W W W W L
2 19 9 5 5 21:19 2 32
L W W D W
3 19 8 7 4 21:14 7 31
D D W L W
4 19 8 5 6 29:18 11 29
W L L L W
5 19 8 5 6 20:19 1 29
W W W D L
6 19 8 4 7 19:15 4 28
L D L W D
7 19 8 4 7 19:21 -2 28
D L L W D
8 19 6 6 7 20:20 0 24
D W W D L
9 19 7 6 6 16:17 -1 24
W D D W W
10 19 7 2 10 19:20 -1 23
L L W W W
11 19 6 5 8 22:26 -4 23
L D L L L
12 19 6 5 8 17:22 -5 23
D W L L D
13 19 5 6 8 24:29 -5 21
L L W D D
14 19 5 6 8 18:25 -7 21
W D L L W
15 19 5 5 9 11:18 -7 20
W L D L L
16 19 3 4 12 7:24 -17 13
L D L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs